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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    The Rebate is far from a Panacea, but in principle its the right kind of solution for the right kind of economic problem. It's a short term problem so borrowing short term money on the governments parts to offset declines in consumer spending makes sense. Much more sense then a stimulus package that gives long term modest tax cuts and increases structural deficiets.
  2. igor67
    A translation with no age adjustment strongly suggests that the Captain bat last year was more than good enough to play in the majors. Nothing stellar but with solid defense he's be above average as a back up catcher and could easily out hit say Kendall or Estrada.
  3. igor67
    Something to keep in mind in regards to Braun would be that his BB/K numbers and BABIP strongly hint that his is due for a slump in production next year, so regardless of position his offensive output probably won't be quite so high next year, which is OK because he can regress and still be an excellent offensive player.
  4. igor67
    I think biedergb has excellent points. Though this is kind of a combined post from the Resource thread as well. But given that the Crew is drafting lower on average than other years unless the draft budget was cut I don't think there is any serious pressure to draft guys who'll take less. I seem to recall Weeks got his big money at over a 4 million dollar bonus and we had a second rounder, plus some DFE's that year. Especially if you account for inflation those totals for the draft budget look remarkably similar. Now maybe the team just wants to go that safe route, but I also feel that there's some MLB budget money that doesn't look like it's going to get spent, and playing a little bit of chicken with a guy who falls isn't the worst way to spend that, particularly if it's a little hedge on our normal 1st rounder signing.
  5. igor67
    I'd like to see them think about spending one of the bonus picks on a signability drop if there is one attractive.
  6. igor67
    This deal smacks of Melvin being intrigued that maybe Mota could find some mojo, and that He realizes that Estrada's OBP just killed the team. I suspect his scouting staff believes that A good chunk of Kendall's OBP from the second half is sustainable. If Kendall can give us a .330 OBP and do a better job with the stolen base department it's a reasonable sort of trade.
  7. igor67
    Fire him. If he was worth keeping (in any profession) he'd keep working hard and have found a way to prove he was underpaid (like using salary.com for you). Regardless of job hiring people who act like they want to be there is the most important thing a manager can do.
  8. igor67
    The other question I have is how many shift plays did Weeks make when he was playing well towards 1st base. Some of those if not nearly all must have been in Fielder's zone. Which would be another way for him to lose some credit.
  9. igor67
    I was wondering looking at the overall numbers, if Fielder isn't made to look worse by his teammates? He is certainly not great. The thing is that these defensive systems are still evolving and all have some kind of issue. It stands to reason that with an overall infield defense as bad as it is that (and one that shifted as often as it did) that it's possible that the first basemen suffers a sort of non-linear effect. What I'm suggesting is that since the vast majority of plays go through the first basemen if everybody else is bad to historically terrible wouldn't that cause a general drop in the plays made that might be mistakenly taken out on the first basemen.
  10. igor67
    First thing to remember is that the article was targeted at individuals/families making 50 to about 100K a year who somehow still can't seem to do things like save for retirement or buy a house. The average Brewer fans biggest money down the drain expenses are almost certainly cigarettes, beer, and cable TV. And Weirdos if you think that was bad for health insurance my family plan through my teaching job was more than my house payment.
  11. igor67
    The advantage of grabbing an OF with good defense is the potential that Doug could see that light and switch Braun into LF and Hall back to third. I'm pretty confident that by the end of the year that pays big dividends defensively for the team.
  12. igor67
    Turnbow's appearances were entirely a correctable mistake. There was a point early in the season when Ned was trotting out Turnbow and Cordero for any lead under 10 runs. Spurling wasn't the best pitcher in the world, but 4 and 5 run leads in the 7th-9th is why you have a guy like that. He's not a great pitcher, but even a mediocre pitcher can get those outs most of the time. This was the biggest problem with Ned's bullpen management. Having a quick hook with T-bow also should have been obvious by July. Sure it puts more strain on the pen, but you've got to figure out a way not to leave a surefire loss in the game.
  13. igor67
    Spending big bucks on free agent relievers is usually a fool's errand unless you tab one of the top 10 closers. As in the small handful of relievers that have shown they can consistently get guys out. Everyone else is pretty much another Turnbow. One year they are great the next not so much. Coco is one of the few that has been very consistently a top performer, so I don't mind spending money on him after that?
  14. igor67
    I posted awhile ago, but the Captain's AA numbers this year translate without any projection into better offense than Estrada, and I'd be shocked if his defense wasn't much better. I fully advocate going that route and spending the money elsewhere.
  15. igor67
    All alone in first!
  16. igor67
    Sure looks like a banner day to be a WI sports fan
  17. igor67
    I'm not huge on catcher defense exactly, but when you concede both OBP and defense you should get a lot better SLG than low .400. I think we could be better served with a cheap scrub or minor league guy for less an spend elsewhere next year.
  18. igor67
    In simpler terms brewers19 if you determined that someone had a 1 in 6 chance of getting a base hit a Monte Carlo Simulation would involve rolling a die a whole bunch of times and reporting the overall results (how many times did you get a 1, 2,3...) Now in this case it's pretty trivial but in areal case with a more sophisticated probability model the simulation lets you get an idea of how often certain things will happen.
  19. igor67
    I strongly suspect that I could have had a much better rational conversation with this person when he was 6 then now. Then again I had students that last year that would only swear half that often given the chance.
  20. igor67
    Call me crazy, but I'd think Hether would be an interesting rule V guy for other GMs. Solid AA numbers and avery good defense at third base. Looks like a buy you can snag and get a useful utility player.
  21. igor67
    Without Soriano and Aramis the Cubs look a lot like the Pirates: terrible line-up interesting pitching possible. And when you talk about regression I don't see a whole lot going one way or the other for the Cubs maybe slightly more downside then upside. They straightened their pythagorean record out so there isn't any boost there. Meanwhile outside of Braun there is no player I see that says regression to the mean negatively. On the other hand the list of players who should be performing better is pretty long, Hall, Weeks(though I'm uncertain given his wrist), Almost the entire starting rotation, Hardy (from the perspective of his June and July). I think in a lot of ways the story of the rest of the season is 1) Health who gets their stars back when and in what condition is huge. 2) Luck- who is going to hit that last hot streak or ice cold streak and 3) In contrast to the last series where it was much more important to Chicago odds are pretty good that the series at the end of August could end up being the final margin for the winner. A sweep for either team probably changes the playoff odds by at least 30% (right now they've been going back and forth at about 50-50 for a couple of weeks). The winner of the series probably gets about half as much of a boost which is still big.
  22. igor67
    Reed this is exactly the type of situation that calls for your unrelenting willingness to challenge authority. I'd see if you could figure out a creative way to get age-proof from the school this kid is supposed to attend. A class picture or something like that the school obviously can't tell you his age directly. I think you need to ask yourself if you really want your kids to play in a league where there is that kind of moral bankruptcy. Then there is the injury issue. If this kid gets in a collision with some 5 year old? And with my son having played on a 10 under football team the last two years I'd be scared witless of the thought of him playing those kids at 5 and getting run over without any pads. This same league my son has been in has some teams that have been known to hold illegal practices, which I find really obnoxious. It isn't an issue to blow up the league for since it's an individual team and it's a poorly kept secret, so I classify it more in the learning to live in the real world type class. I would feel differently if they were running ringers out there though.
  23. igor67
    I'm trying not to get too excited since it is only a couple of AAA starts, but if the Brewers turn this guy into a starter this could be the ultimate nugget.
  24. igor67
    I think the scoring probabilities are instructive, but I'm always a little bit concerned when you try to use them for contrarian strategies. That is the fact that the numbers are derived from real game data means that the numbers are formed heavily by what people generally do. For example take the extreme case above with the 1st and 2nd 0 out vs. 2nd and 3rd 1 out scenario. If managers always attempted to bunt in the first case then the probability of scoring 1 run would already factor in that almost all of the time you successfully turn that into a 2nd and 3rd situation. So the bunt failure result is already built in. Now in the real world managers don't always bunt with 1st and 2nd, but a certain amount of the run probability is dependent on the managers bunting. I'm not entirely sure how big these effects are. But I do have a certain preference for a more pure computer estimation of these strategies to contrast with the real data. If I was a manager in particular I'd want the numbers to be calculated based on the batting order too.
  25. igor67
    Good Grief I have to admit to not reading the game stories that closely the last couple of weeks. They're turning Mcclung back into a starter? If that experiment works...
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