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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Perhaps if we could procure cooperation from some of the minor league teams in terms of player availability first it would make it easier for people to generate new info on their prospect? In the past the teams have been pretty good to us with formal interviews, but maybe trying to let us e-mail some questions for specific players or perhaps even more interesting getting info on these guys from some of the coaching staff.
  2. igor67
    A couple of observations: Young teams tend to get better and the Brewers most important talent outside of Sheets all has more upside potential then downside next year and for a while afterwards. As others have pointed out we stand to get a lot more performance out of big difference makers on top of any other improvements in individuals performance The only argument I have about the postseason is that there is a small benefit to being a top heavy team in the short series. Since you have more off days there does seem to be a small systematic benefit to teams designed to revolve around a handful of dominant pitchers and coast through the roster filler instead of having many moderately above average performers.
  3. igor67
    Random comment. Baseball Prospectus is giving free access this week so I checked out there PECOTA cards. Coming into this year Yo's number one comp was Jake Peavey. His other comps were pretty good too he had some flameouts in there but you'd expect that with a young pitcher. His top 10 comps Peavey Rich Harden Kyle Davies Chad Billingsley Scott Kazmir Brad Penny Clint Everts Bob Moose Joel Zumaya Carlos Zambrano Basically that list tells you if you can keep him healthy he'll be a perennial All-star player. That's an incredibly strong motive not to Cal Eldred the kid. As much as we malign the 90's there were a number of OK teams in there that challenged for .500 records There biggest problems were bad bad starting pitching and a OK bullpen that ended up over exposed by the second half contributing to this history of hot starts and slow fades. It is reasonable to believe that a Cal Eldred pitching like he did as a rookie would have made a pretty big impact on a couple of those teams.
  4. igor67
    What I think would be practical and fun to try would be usage patterns based much more on workload and somewhat on leverage. I believe it was Rob Neyer had offered the idea that our current usage patterns for pitchers don't really take into account the idea that certain pitchers have more ideal patterns of usage. In some cases this comes into play like with Wise not pitching back to back days. On the other extreme we talk about long relief guys going over a week without pitching and not being sharp. The idea was basically to focus more on having pitchers throw when it is best for them. So you'd be more likely to see guys throwing once every 2-3 days then three in a row. Now I think in practice this only works with a fairly deep bullpen where you have a number of players you'd trust in a close game. For all the dithering we do have a fairly deep pen. I think all of us are reasonably confident in throwing CoCo, T-bow, Villy, YoGa, and Wise into a close game. Essentially the bet here is that Wise on two days rest is better then Cordero after 3 or 4 days in a row.
  5. igor67
    The depth card doesn't make a lot of sense over the last half of the season. Based on scouting and reports you'd have to include Parra in the list of available starters which gives you currently an 8 deep rotation of quality options. it's not #9 where things get suspect in Oxspring. Give the depth of bullpen options as well it seems almost trivial to argue that trading Vargas is addition by subtraction.
  6. igor67
    I've been skeptical of Ford because of the very high K rate for awhile, but he has improved a modest amount since last year rate wise, and appears to have have had a small improvement even jumping up to Brevard County. If you game him a full leadoff season you'd expect about 145 Ks which of course is a lot for a top of the order guy traditionally, but not the kind of super high rate that leads you to believe he's going to fail because his other tools are pretty good. I'd venture to say that so far he's been everything Krynzel was supposed to be.
  7. igor67
    The early start phenomena is always helpful, but compared to say A-rod Prince already has two years to make up. And while Prince has a very nice pace going he still hasn't hit 50 HRs even once, so that's kid of a stretch. And not only do you need a favorable aging curve you need to have better than average health. And of course no player has hit 50 HRs in what more than 4 or 5 consecutive season or something like that so to pronounce a full decade is another stretch.
  8. igor67
    Rumor has it the Twins are trying to get Molly to come out of retirement to play third. So yeah he can probably play somewhere as a starter at his peak.
  9. igor67
    I personally liked the half joking comment from a different website suggesting that someone on the Tigers had intentionally slipped him something.
  10. igor67
    Sparky that's not even close to a fair deal for Cincy unless they are convinced Gwynn is the second coming. Our depth isn't that hurt by this "deal" if we bring up Nix instead of Gwynn we're likely to get qualitatively similar results and Gross and Hart can play CF, and Gross could post an OPS on the sunny side of .800 just as easily as Jenkins.
  11. igor67
    Being the fairweather fan I am http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Go Pirates!
  12. igor67
    Mark Bellhorn with less power and much better defense perhaps
  13. igor67
    The sky is not falling as much as I believe in Hall and his ability to get back to having a better season he was not driving our offense in such a huge way that playing more modest hitters is going to torpedo the offense. If it was Hart, Prince, or Braun then we might have something to worry about over the next month, but we'll end up going with what we have for internal depth and rearranging the line up some, but it will be OK.
  14. igor67
    the real problem here is that the number of players being detected is still within what you could expect to find randomly. The odds of any player showing clutch ability consistently is small, but by chance over a large sample you'd expect to find a couple of players who apparently show clutch ability.
  15. igor67
    I was listening to the game on XM and before the GS the Nats hadn't scored more than 3 runs since June 22nd! Let's go Nats your due to get hot for a couple of games
  16. igor67
    I submit that the reason for disagree here is a matter of degree. If you talk about a one time deal for a real difference maker over the next few years then I think people are almost universally in favor of dealing SOME of our prospects. On the other hand I think what some people fear consciously or not is that we start wheeling and dealing trying to win now and slowly at first but rather quickly burn through our next group of impact prospects and get only modest one year rentals whom we don't even bother to offer arby too because we're trying to hold onto are really good players.
  17. igor67
    End's argument is the much better one with regards to Spurling. Keeping in mind that using your criteria Cordero has lost us more games than Spurling. I don't have any problem with the notion that we could go to the playoffs with Spurling on the team. The only reason I am for moving on is that I believe we have many options that are likely to out perform Spurling going forward because he isn't a 3 ERA pitcher. Balfour seems like the most appealing option with concerns over Parra's ability to get warmed up properly.
  18. igor67
    I'm struggling a little for good comps to Brantley at the moment in terms of highside ability, but if you look at downside potential between Ford and Brantley that can be instructive. I see Brantley's downside as Rich Becker. Enough pop that he isn't Tynered, but could see his average take some hits and settle in as a 5 OF type who can get on base and that's about it. Ford with his still unimpressive plate discipline could easily become David Krynzel. It's not that I have a problem with a leadoff hitter having a high k rate it's that extremely high K rates usually lead to flameouts if not corrected.
  19. igor67
    That what kinds of my point hauser. Millar doesn't have the power he once did but isn't a slap hitter either. Offensively our biggest weakness really is our relatively low OBP. As a spot player playing only against lefties he'll produce more then Mench, and you got good options for defensive replacements in Gross and Jenkins. And actually if you compare SLG this year Millar has Mench outdone .436 to .421. I'm a little less enthusiastic though since you made me look up the splits Millar has actually had a reverse platoon split 4 years running, the OBP is still good but his power and average get pretty weak. I agree that Griffey is going to take and is actually worth some good players. Jenkins has to be in the trade for salary reasons at a bare minimum. A younger starting pitcher is pretty valuable and then it becomes a question of what else can you get away with. I think Doug has established a precedent in being willing to deal slightly disapointing pitchers with good potential. Sarfate springs to mind and generally you are giving better percieved value with nearly ready players. Just to throw some numbers. Jenkins and Mench total Runs above replacement so far is 16. Griffey's is 30. For a half season then that's a 14 run difference or 2 full wins.
  20. igor67
    I can't really quibble too much other than the say that the Rangers game has to be second on the loss list. 3 or 4 batters in a row at two strikes and none K against a guy who average more than 1.3 per inning was very tough. Ultimately no serious momentum affect other than proving that CoCo was in fact human. A person might be able to argue that Saturday's was the biggest win because while I argued the series was more important for the Cubs them sweeping us is exactly the kind of spark they would need to come back. By that token the Friday night Cubs game maybe about 3rd on the lost list. The pyschological affect of losing 2 out of 3 may have been the final nail in the Cubs coffin.
  21. igor67
    I did a quick sweep on non contenders and the two names I came up with that might be beneficial are Kevin Millar and Griffey. Millar's slugging is down quite a bit but still OK and his OBP is still quite high which is an asset on this team. I'd wager for a modest pitching prospect and Mench there's a reasonable deal there. Someone on the Sarfate, Jackson or even Spurling if they were so inclined for some reason. Griffey is a lot tricker for many reasons no trade clauses and what not, but he'd definitely be an upgrade in LF and make the line up really scary. The Reds need pitching so we could offer up Vargas a relief prospect, Jenkins and a bat of some kind like Gamel or Ford?
  22. igor67
    If you to the bottom left grouping BP has a number of different standings www.baseballprospectus.co.../sortable/ The adjusted standings combine adjustments for runs scored and allowed plus a difficulty adjustment for the schedule. They also give you the real standings and just the simple unadjusted pythagorean standings
  23. igor67
    I think the Brewers should be somewhat aggressive in trying to move some of this surplus in AAA, but they should still plan on being able to replace 3 pitchers for the remainder of the year with complete confidence. So if you go with a pool of extra call ups in Balfour, Parra, Dillion, and Thatcher I think you've got pretty good quality and can fill 3 bullpen spots or rotation spots. That does leave you with a modest list of trade bait. Vargas or Spurling, Sarfate, and Jackson. Personally I'd really just as soon try out Balfour or Parra and develop longer term bullpen depth instead of burning the flame out on this team too quickly. Come playoff time the bullpen is going to get shorter and Cordero, Turnbow, Villy, and Wise is enough to ride pretty heavy. It's different if you were getting the unhittable Gagne of 3-4 years ago, but what we've got is pretty good and pretty deep already.
  24. igor67
    That's a brilliant idea bigred. Getting "quotes" from Bill O'reilly and Britt Hume in the Onion would be great!
  25. igor67
    Logically there should be absolutely no fear in facing the Pirates. Their line up is worse than the Giants one player with an OPS over .800 and that's the catcher in the .850s? That is really bad. For all the Pirate fear let's keep in mind that we have won all but one game this year. The curse of the Pirate is dead!
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