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Never Outhustled

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Everything posted by Never Outhustled

  1. Never Outhustled
    Hopefully the Rangers can hold there lead today so Otsuka gets a chance to pitch, and show he's healthy. Its smart the scouts are there to see his stuff 1st hand. I really want Otsuka, though I don't know what pitcher to get rid of to make room for him. I'd guess they'd go with a 13 man staff until the Sheets situation resolves itself.
  2. Never Outhustled
    I think many have this perception, but the brewers actually rank fairly high in steals, have a very good steal success rate, and are above average in bunt attempt success.
  3. Never Outhustled
    Young never once had a 5 ERA in the 2nd half in his career. Capuano's average 2nd half is over 5. Young has been worse in the 2nd half every year, but never as bad as Cappy, he is just a better overall pitcher. Many predicted Vargas would get worse, and he did. What side were you on with that one? Many wanted Bush out, but that wasn't you or me, because the evidence suggested he'd return to normal. He did. Unfortunately, normal for Cappy has been worse than we need for the stretch run. The evidence suggests that Cappy will be part of the problem, so trading him is part of the solution.
  4. Never Outhustled
    Why do you think Cappy would have a mid to low 4 ERA the rest of this year when his history shows he wilts in the 2nd half, producing a 5.13 ERA over the last 3 years. All indicators are he'll do that, or worse, the rest of this year. Also, why does dealing Cappy mean we'll keep Vargas? Do you think we'll keep both CV and Parra out of the rotation next year? Have you considered the possibility that Capuano could be packaged with some of our depth to get a good starting pitcher?
  5. Never Outhustled
    His overall numbers were good overall thanks to very good 1st halves, but what are you basing he will turn it around on?
  6. Never Outhustled
    ERAs after the break from 2004-2006 3.04 Zambrano 5.13 Capuano Endaround, Your a well respected poster here, so I'll give you a mulligan for that sarcatic comment that really missed the boat. Zambrano has gotten a tick stronger as the season wheres on historically, where as Capuano loses it pretty bad.
  7. Never Outhustled
    My guess is Melvin was talking to the Reds about a deal that would actually address our needs. Aaron Harang fits that bill. The discusions were likely what it would take to upgrade from Vargas to Harang and from Capuano to Harang.
  8. Never Outhustled
    His ERA after the break the last 3 years is over 5, why are you expecting a 4.38 ERA? The trade isn't just for the returns, its to get him out of the way for pitchers who can actually help us to the postseason. Someone will have to be dealt before next season to open spots for the youngsters, and you wouldn't want to deal Cappy in the offseason when his trade value will be even lower. Melvin has said repeatedly pitchers are worth more in season.
  9. Never Outhustled
    Nobody agreed with me about moving Cappy a few weeks ago, I wonder if anybody has changed there mind? I was told a few weeks ago not to deal him when his value is at its lowest, only to see it go lower. What will he be worth in the offseason after he spends the last month and a half of the season as a bullpen mop-up guy? Many desperate teams won't be too concerned about a few bad outings, but a few more and they'll cross him off there list.
  10. Never Outhustled
    The difficult thing with Sanders is he is maddeningly inconsistent. Here is his OPS this decade; 2000- 705 2001- 886 2002- 779 2003- 912 2004- 797 2005- 886 2006- 729 Which Sanders would we be getting? His OPS has been under 800 4 times, we have absolutly no use for that. We could just call up Joe Dillion and get at least that. He has also had a 886+ OPS 3 times. Thats pretty outstanding. However, its tough to bet on that at age 39. We don't have a strong enough need for him to gamble on his injury issues.
  11. Never Outhustled
    Thanks for the awesome update wvpowerblkwel. 98 is absolute smoke for a starter. Thats Verlander type stuff. I guess you made the right decision to dump the stadium gun.
  12. Never Outhustled
    My new favorite, Darren Ford, with a leadoff jack tonight. 1-0 'Tees.
  13. Never Outhustled
    Oswalt is signed through 2011. He would be our 2nd best pitcher, but Igor is right in that he appeares to be declining. He is definately worth keeping an eye on. Here is his page at MLB4U.com.
  14. Never Outhustled
    I caught the end of the game. I saw Bray's 1 pitch outing, a 92 MPH fastball, that the batter flew out on to deep center. Also, Cardinal RHP prospect has one of the funkiest deliveries I ever saw. Mariner prospect CF Adam Jones just oozes talent. I wonder how he fits there with Ichero re-signing.
  15. Never Outhustled
    If his value is low now, it will likely be even lower come the offseason, as he usually wilts in the 2nd half. So dealing him now could be considered selling high. He value will only go down as he gets more expensive and gets closer to FA. Also, I doubt a couple of bad starts torpedos his value for most GMs. I doubt too many pull up a guys stats to judge whether to deal for a guy. They go off the opinion of there scouts, who might not have even seen him lately.
  16. Never Outhustled
    I think that is half of it, but the deal also hinges on whether Melvin has full confidence in Vargas. My guess is he doesn't, and neither do I, so that is why I keep Bush. I assume one of the reasons Atlanta is attracted to Bush is because he'll be very cost effective for a few more years. I'd be more interested in dealing Capuano than Bush, as he's more expensive, and has struggled in the portion of season we're now entering.
  17. Never Outhustled
    Why do we have to have a lefty starter in our rotation?
  18. Never Outhustled
    Your right, that would be odd. A pitcher standing on the mound with electodes stuck to his head to measure brainwaves http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . The research I saw didn't research the mentallity, it researched the result. It compared a batters OPS with basestealers on versus no baserunners. The baseball book ,The Bible, IIRC, also did some in depth research on the subject, but I'm not as familiar with that.
  19. Never Outhustled
    For me, its not that they don't compare well, its that I'm just not impressed with Dave Roberts. Sure, he's better than Dave Hulse, but I think we're past , and will continue to be past that stage.
  20. Never Outhustled
    Theres been a good amount of research done on this theory, but none of it is very conclusive. Your idea is logical, but the numbers suggest the basestealer may be just as much a distraction for the batter as the pitcher. I agree that steals have a value, but a single and a steal is definately not as good as a double. If player A and player B were similar hitters but 1 was a prolific basestealer, I'd definately choose the basestealer. However, in the case were discussing here, the 2 players are not even close as hitters in the portion of the season were entering now.
  21. Never Outhustled
    Jenkins OPS after the break the last 3 years is 933. I think thats the most relevent number in this comparison. Carl Crawford turns 26 in less than a month, so I don't see how he was 23 last season. I even provided a link for you http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif No matter what his age, he's not showing a lot of helium. Jenkins had already had 2 900+ OPS seasons by the age Crawford is now.
  22. Never Outhustled
    Dealing capuano makes more sense than dealing Bush right now, as Capuano historically pitches poorly in the 2nd half. Bush is also more cost effective. To me, the best way to use Capuano is in a package to aquire a top starting pitcher. However, if that pitcher is available, I don't know who he is.
  23. Never Outhustled
    I think your overrating the effect of stolen bases. A stolen base never drives in a runner from 1st. The impact of stolen bases is very minimal.
  24. Never Outhustled
    Yes it does, thats how Crawford closes the gap on Jenkins, as Crawford is clearly an inferior hitter. I agree with that. I think the team needs to improve its OBA, Unfortunately, Crawford doesn't help do that. Crawford is an excellent basestealer, but the Brewers actually rate fairly high in stolen bases, and have a very good success rate. Considering Jenkins is a dominant player late in the season, I would guess he could continue that into October. If thats true, Jenkins is a much better option than Crawford.
  25. Never Outhustled
    I don't like the last deal at all. Jenkins is better than Crawford, let's just stick with him for now if the best we could get is Crawford. Crawford currently has a 781 OPS, and his career high is 830. Jenkins has a career 848 OPS Crawford has some real strong qualities, but he's not a very good hitter. Jenkins has been at least a similar player, and Jenkins has always been an outstanding 2nd half player. Now is not the time to replace Jenkins.
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