Never Outhustled

I agree with molitor fan, I think Macha will do wonders for Weeks. I think Nervous Ned had him wound right tight. Macha's calming influence and strightforward approach will let Week's natural talent just come out.

Ya, I agree, and then throw in the fact the Brewers have at least 5 of the top 74 picks in the June Draft. Thats awesome considering they've built this farm system without having any extra picks until last year.

Would we want Gwynn on the AAA bench? Theres no starting spot for him there, and he would be 1 of the 2 worst hitters on the roster with Jason Bouguois. If Gwynn wants to play fulltime, he'd have to go to Huntesville. I think the Brewers are just posturing about the Gwynn situation to try to pry something in trade out of a team that overvalues his name.

MaGehee was an OF in college. I can't for the life of me figure out why he isn't getting time in the OF right now. I have no problem with Hart in CF. He has always played better in CF than RF. Hart's career UZR/150 is pretty good, its better than Gwynn's. That shouldn't be suprising, Hart has awesome speed, and many OFs think its easier to judge flyballs in CF. Briggs is right, if you keep Lamb, its over Duffy, not MaGehee. Nelson can play the corner OF spot just fine. He has a better arm than most LFs. If Weeks gets a day off, its going to be against RHP, so Counsel would be getting the start at 2B. Counsel is a good OBA guy, and a pretty good baserunner, would he just bat leadoff? An OF of Braun, Hart , Nelson is just as appealing to me as Braun , Duffy, Hart. Duffy won't hit much in the regular season, I'm guessing he'll continue to be sub-700 OPS, and it wouldn't suprise me if Nelson could be an 800 OPS guy.

The rankings should be about talent, not balance. Systems that are pitching heavy should be penalized in the rankings for that, as the wash out rate for pitching prospects is much higher. The Brewers had the #1 ranked systen in 2004 according to BA, and in hindsight that was absolutly correct. We had no pitching then either. The Brewers system should rank higher than 15th based on their AAA prospects alone.

We wouldn't have to call up Gamel or Iribarren. We could call up Adam Heether. Heether has been better than MaGehee his whole career, and even hit well this ST, but didn't get many oppurtunities for some reason. Heether has become an OBA machine. Vinny Rottina also consistently outhit MaGehee before he moved to catcher fulltime last year. Both can defend at 3B better than Lamb. Gwynn should not be kept over Duffy to provide depth because as the season progresses we have developing depth such as Cole Gillespie and Lo Cain. Both could outhit Gwynn right now. Jason Bougoius is also just as good ( or should I say "as bad") a hitter as Gwynn. The Brewers also don't need a backup CF on the roster, as Hart can fill that role.

Mark DeRosa Excellent call Ennder. Not only are their minor league numbers identical, but they're similar physically, and both are versatile defenders. Thanks for keeping my hope alive.

MaGehee has had an awesome spring, and will likely be on next springs "Laynce Nix All-Stars" thread. I'm hoping MaGehee is some kind of super scouting find, but he is more likely the next Lyle Mouton. MaGehee has never broke the 777 OPS mark in the minors, so I'll be shocked if he's an asset in the majors. That said, we need a RH bench bat, and we don't have another sensible option right now. Funny thing about MaGehee is, if he's sent to AAA, he likely won't start. Don Money wasn't at he Big League spring games to watch MaGehee tear it up. Money will likely give out playing time based on the players career body of work. That would have Gamel at 3B, Heether at 2B, and Thormon at 1st. MaGehee was an OF in college, but Cole Gillespie will definately take 1 of the starting corner OF spots, probably RF. Hernan Iribarren outhit MaGehee at A and AA before falling on his face last year, maybe those 2 could split LF? Can anyone name a player who played fulltime in the minors through age 25, never OPS'd 780 in a season, and became a productive big league hitter?

I totally agree, because its only gets more senseless as you dig deeper. Iribarren is as good, if not a better, hitter than Gwynn, with more upside and versatility, would be available for MLB depth. For 3B depth, Adam Heether has been a better player than McGehee every year until this spring training, and Mat Gamel might eventually be a 3B option. Keeping Lamb and Gwynn to push depth to AAA is unnecessary, and makes the big league club worse.

The Brewers don't need to go searching for a leadoff type. They just drafted a player born and breed to bat leadoff. BA has him in our top 10. Its Cutter Dykstra, a patient hitter with power to force pitchers to nibble, and great acceleration for baserunning.

Duffy was a much better hitter at the minor league level than Gwynn, and is an easy choice over Gwynn. Dale Sveam coached Duffy in the minors, so his past success isn't lost on our staff. Duffy actually even outhit Nelson in the minors, where he has a career 371 OBA. Mike Lamb has no trade value. He was at home without a job when we called him last year, and then was available for almost free again in the offseason, but was only offered by us. He was terrible last year, and terrible in spring training with a job on the line.

How about a guy with a better chance of not making an out at all? Its more common to have a double play with a runner on 1st than it is to advance a runner. The scenario you talk of isn't common enough to make a huge impact for a leadoff hitter. You have to realize, while Weeks is bad with RISP and Ks alot, he only Ks 50 more times than the next guy, and he doesn't hit 0 with RISP. The guys that put the ball in play softly occaisionally get that runner at 3rd thrown out at the plate. The numbers are right. Every 100 Ks cost a team 1 run. Weeks doesn't K 100 times more than other 2B.

Time and again we find out the Brewers really know there minor leaguers. I think the only mistake they've made giving up or trading one since Melvin took over was Craig Breslow.

True, but don't forget he got on base more than the guys he's compared to because he's willing to go deep into the count. Willingness to walk can increase the risk of strikeout. Hudson and Roberts had higher averages at the same age, but significantly lower OBAs because they were too concerned with the trivial stat that is K's.

I agree. In fact, if they would have kept him at catcher, I would have moved him down 8-10 spots on my board. Ranking our system 15th is lauphable. It goes to show how little these guys follow the minors. They don't know the guys that weren't high draft picks. Cain's ability and production are just as good as the CF prospects that are ranked in the top 50. We have a bunch of relief pitcher prospects. We have a track record of having our guys actually turning out at the big league level.

Special Assistant Dick Groh recommended both Morlan and Jeff Bennett for the rule 5 draft. I'm hoping if he recommends another AA reliever with mediocre stuff and results again next year, Melvin decides to not waste the 40 man roster spot.

It doesn't bother me that Villy won't start the year as the 8th inning guy because I don't like having anyone strictly as the 8th inning guy. The 8th isn't more important than the 7th or 6th. An 8th inning guy gets inconsistent work. He doesn't pitch if the team isn't winning games, and then gets worked like a dog when the team is hot. Most of the relievers in this pen will give us similar production, and they should just be used in rotation to keep everyone sharp. If everyone gets consistent innings, and avoids working back to back days as much as possible, we'll get better collective production, much like we did down the stretch last year. If a pitcher gets cold, he can be used in a mop up role until he gets straightened out, and the other 5 can rotate ahead of Hoffman. What scares me about Villy so far is that when a pitcher as talented as him struggles, its usually a precursor to injury.

And if Fielder and Hart have seasons like they did in 2007, and Hall close to 2006, it could be an incredibly awesome season.

Roster spots are tight right now, and Morlan isn't all that exciting, so I'm not suprised he cleared waivers. Tampa has to put him on there 40 to take him back, and they weren't willing to do that in the offseason, why would they want to do that now? Littleton is a guy I wanted to aquire a few years ago. He has kind of stalled, but has interesting stuff. Getting waived by Boston isn't a critism, they're absolutly loaded.

You haven't really focused on $90 million, as your team falls well below 90 million, and you've said repeatedly you are against signing FA pitchers (which I do agree with). Your focus should be on 95 wins, but your moves don't increase the win total. Your moves create depth at the minor league level, but eliminate some of the high impact talent at the major league level. If the Brewers pick up the option on Looper and bring back everyone who's not an FA (Cameron, Kendall, Hoffman, Counsel), with generous arby raises figured, have a payroll of $88 million for a full roster of considerable quality. That roster includes cheap young talent in Cain, and Salome or Lucroy. Not included in that projection is Mat Gamel, who will start somewhere next year, I think most would agree with that. The position is unknown, with the possibilities being 1B, 3B, or LF (with Braun in RF). Trading away 1 of those 3 players will trim another $6 to $10 million from the payroll. Hart or Fielder could provide some high quality young pitching to compete with our already full rotation. Hall's value could be anywhere from negative to decent, depending on if he bounces back this year, which looks like a possiblity. Replacing Hardy with Escobar shaves off roughly $14.6 million. Hardy projects to have significantly more value wins than Escobar in 2010. Hardy could be dealt for young pitching with upside, the kind of talent Phil Huhges, Clay Bucholz, and Homer Bailey were entering 2008. Predicting when, if at all, a young pitcher will establish himself is a form of gambling. If its Hardy versus Escobar plus Hardy trade haul, why can't it be Hardy plus Escobar trade haul, versus Escobar plus Hardy trade haul. By midseason, the Brewers will have a much better idea if Brent Brewer is the prospect I think he is, which gives the Brewers a SS to replace Hardy in 2011. Dealing Escobar as the main part of a package for Halladay at the deadline makes the Brewers a WS contender on 2009. In 2010, the Brewers could decline Loopers option, and still have finacial flexibility with Halladay aboard. I'll agree that our own prospects are known quantities, but traded prospects should come with red flags. Jose Capellan was a top caliber pitching prospect when we aquired him. Will Inman was considered a top pitching prospect when we dealt him. Both players faded quickly. Teams consistently use their insider knowledge to deal away only the prospects they don't hold in high regard. I'm just as comfortable drafting my own prospects as I am with some elses lemons. The kicker is, we get to keep our established players in their highest win value year by chosing draft picks over prospects. We have our own prospects, we don't need somebody elses.

Suppan was much better than Pedro last year, I don't see whats changed.

I think people forget the days of Jaime Navarro and Ruben Quevedo. Now those were bad starters. Suppan has had 6 straight seasons with an ERA under 5. We could do worse.

I'm hoping Rogers is developed as a reliever from here on out. To me, trying to stretch him out to start is too risky. He could be similar to Brad Lidge, who was also switched to relief work after repeated injuries in the minors. It will give him a quicker path to the majors, which will be important, as he has now used his 1st option. The Brewers had fixed Rogers pitching mechanics, but after poor results, they backed off some of the changes part way through his 2006 season at BC. Predictably, he both began to show results, and got injured. If he can only show results with the semi-modified mechanics instead of the complete overhaul, then he will need to have his workload reduced to try to prevent further injury.

I'm hoping Rogers is developed as a reliever from here on out. To me, trying to stretch him out to start is too risky. He could be similar to Brad Lidge, who was also switched to relief work after repeated injuries in the minors. It will give him a quicker path to the majors, which will be important, as he has now used his 1st option. The Brewers had fixed Rogers pitching mechanics, but after poor results, they backed off some of the changes part way through his 2006 season at BC. Predictably, he both began to show results, and got injured. If he can only show results with the semi-modified mechanics instead of the complete overhaul, then he will need to have his workload reduced to try to prevent further injury.

I'm hoping Rogers is developed as a reliever from here on out. To me, trying to stretch him out to start is too risky. He could be similar to Brad Lidge, who was also switched to relief work after repeated injuries in the minors. It will give him a quicker path to the majors, which will be important, as he has now used his 1st option. The Brewers had fixed Rogers pitching mechanics, but after poor results, they backed off some of the changes part way through his 2006 season at BC. Predictably, he both began to show results, and got injured. If he can only show results with the semi-modified mechanics instead of the complete overhaul, then he will need to have his workload reduced to try to prevent further injury.