Never Outhustled

Are you saying injuries to under 25 pitchers are not more common than injuries to other players? I think theres a wealth of research thats disputes that.

No, I think its alot worse. Hardy will be about 4 wins better than Escobar in 2009, and Cameron could regress and still be better than Ellsbury. Bucholz is impossible to predict, as he is talented but was bad last year. The Brewers need starting pitcher, but we already have 5. I'd be more into aquiring Bucholz if we still needed a #5. They're not, they are just aware that we have prospects. Why control Ellsbury for 5 years when we have Cain? Ellsbury is not a huge ceiling player like you describe him. He hit a grand total of 10 homers in the minors despite being a college player. Just not a good one. He had a 336 OBA last year, and a 338 OBA in AAA. He was good at drawing wlks in A ball, as you would expect from a college hitter, but hasn't been anything special at that skill since hitting AA. He likely won't walk much because of his lack of power. No, worse case scenarios include continuing to have the control problems that lead to last years 6.75 ERA, or getting hurt, a fairly common thing for pitchers his age. Ellsbury will likely be a little better than Cain in 2010, but Hardy will still be alot better than Escobar in 2010, so you need Bucholz just to break even. Maybe Bucholz fullfills his potential and becomes a stud. But you still gave away 2009. Thats unnecessary.

We lost Sebathia, Torres, and Branyan, who did Boston lose?

Thats not true. Prince is a DH, and Texiera is a gold glove 1B. As for Ellsbury, I can't believe how overhyped he is. He had a 336 OBA and a 729 OPS last year. Weeks was a better leadoffman, and Cameron is a better CF. This deal would destroy the Brewers team OPS. I'd have an interest in Bucholz, but I'd don't know if I'd even do Hart for Bucholz. Bucholz had a 6.75 ERA last year and was then sent to AAA, and Ellsbury was worth 3.5 wins. Hardy and Cameron were worth 9.6 wins last year. Cameron might regress, but Hardy is poised for an even better year. The Brewers have a CF prospect in Cain who is just as toolsy as Ellsbury, and should have no problem putting up the same numbers as Ellsbury (298/354/380/735) did in AAA at the same age. Ellsbury has been a much better defender in CF, but Cain has the ability and work ethic to improve.

I can understand a player not signing for a fan, but not signing for an MDA fundraiser? What a lowlife. Worst of luck to ya Matt.

I've seen a few people post this, which leads me to one obvious question. If CV replaces Torres, who replaces CV? CV threw 59 bullpen innings with a 2.12 ERA. Based on that, I think its a major stretch to say the bullpen is improved. We gave up 2nd rounders to get Jose Hernandez, Damian Miller, and Jeff Suppan. The year we signed Miller we drafted Ryan Braun in the 1st round.

I agree that we need to find a couple quality starters from our system every couple years, but your talking about trading Hardy next year and starting 4 rookies (Cain, Gamel, Lucroy or Salome, and Escobar). This team won't be close to competing if it starts 4 rookies, you'd be giving 2010 away. Did you do a payroll analysis of this plan, because that would give us a payroll much smaller than necessary? By not trading a prospect or 2 to get a pitcher, your giving 2009 away too. We just drafted 6 guys in the top 66 last year, we have an incredibly deep system, which most will realize by the middle of next year. When we break in a couple of rookies next year, we will have put ourselves in good payroll standing, and only will need to break in a couple more youngsters in 2011-2012. Hardy will be better than Escobar in 2009 and 2010. Trading Hardy makes little sense to me, as most of the upgrade we make at another position will be offset by the downgrade at SS. Wasn't Mike Cameron a pretty good signing last year? The Brewers have Hardy through 2010. Brewer might be ready in 2011. Can't we wait until 2011 to address a possible hole at SS? Trades can be made if Brewer isn't ready. Or make a Cameron type signing. Now now, Brewer may be error prone, but he has tremendous range, Braun had none. A better comparison for Brewers D would be Jose Valentine. How could I crucify 1 of my favorite posters during the holiday season? I appreciate the way you challenge me. And someday you'll realize the greatness of the talented Mr. Brewer http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Deadline deals will fuel our franchise. Some just won't see the results of it until the prospects we get with the extra comp picks we get from those soon to be FA trade acquisitions start making there impact on the system. I don't know how you can argue that we won't get more prospects by doubling our number of top 2 round picks.

Melvin would have to be creative to get Grienke, but it can be done. The Royals want a SS so they can move Mike Aviles to 2B, and I'd assume they'd want a top pitching prospect to replace Grienke. The Reds offered Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye, and they've said publically they'd still like to add an OF, so I'm sure they'd covet Hart. Hart for a package centered around Bailey, who'd be sent to KC along with Alcides Escobar for Greinke. Sign Adum Dunn. Compete for playoffs again in 2009. Compete for playoffs again in 2010. In 2011 worry about possible hole at SS if Brewer isn't ready in 2011.

Its one thing to gamble that Tavarez will find his way back to his 2007 production, but why bet a 2 year deal on that? Wouldn't you want to ditch him after 2009 if he doesn't turn out? And what a low ceiling gamble he is considering how much more production they could get by signing a corner OF and play Jay Bruce in CF.

While I fully realize the MLB draft takes longer to make an impact, it is in no way a crapshoot. Roughly half of the All-Stars each year are 1st or 2nd round picks. Thats huge when you realize 1/4 of the All-Stars are international players not subject to the draft. That means the players drafted in rounds 3-50 plus undrafted FAs make up just 1/4 of the All-Star roster. The NFL draft is more of a crapshoot, mostly because teams consistently draft players of poor character in the early rounds. I agree the goal is to win now, but the draftpicks are not who we will use to replace the players on the big club. Those players were members of the best prospect team in baseball this past season, the Brewers AA team. The draft picks will restock the low minors, while we use guys like Gamel, Escobar, Cain, Gillespie, and Salome as either future Brewers starters or trade chips, and we have another wave of starting caliber players in Jeffress, Green, Lucroy, and Brewer right behind them.

So if the Yankees threw in a low level arm with Melky Cabera to get a top 10 CF they'd be overpaying? The deal didn't get done because the Yankees haven't made a fair offer. Neither Sebathia nor Harden were dealine deals.

A players trade value is dicated by the numbers of teams pursuing the player. Whether its a need of yours or not means nothing. Pitchers are available at the deadline every year, and there pricetag is pretty standard stuff.

I hope Attanosio remembers that he's not just competing against the other 29 teams, but he's competing against of forms of entertainment for our entertainment dollar. I haven't been hurt by the recession (yet), but I don't spend much to support bad teams.

While I realize the team will likely need 6 or 7 starters over the course of 162 games, couldn't we wait until the need arrises to aquire them? That worked out OK last year. Not too many teams make the post season without some sort of in-season deal. If we can aquire a 3 ERA type guy, do it. But if we're just looking at lateral moves from McClung, I'll pass.

The Angels could, but according to this, They won't. The GM also said it is "not likely" the Angels will retain veteran outfielder Garret Anderson, and that he was not pursuing free-agent outfielders such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell. Thats not suprising the Angels won't pursue that trio, as all 3 don't play with the emotion or fire that Scioscia prefers (not that I have a problem with a player taking a professional approach). I also highly doubt the Angels pursue Giambi, as Scioscia has been very public for his disdain for steriod abusers. No manager in baseball has more power over personel than Scioscia. If the Angels upgrade their offense, it will most likely come via trade. I wonder if this is just speculation, or if the writer was told something off the record by Reagins? I'm, obviously hoping for the latter. While Fielder's offseason commitment is lacking, I'd never question Fielders desire once the game starts. I'm guessing Scioscia would fall in love with Fielders passion, at least until he got an upclose look at the dark side of the tempermental slugger.

A few points: -Runs are created by OBA and Slugging %. Hence, Garret Anderson is close to straight up bad, and Adam Dunn is a far superior hitter. Dunn is worth significantly more wins than Anderson. -Greinke has much more value than Hart, and the Royals don't need another OF. They're actually looking to move one of there own. The Braves have had talks of a package for Grienke including Kelly Johnson. The Brewers could do a deal of Hart to Atlanta, Johnson to KC, and another major prospect to KC for Greinke. The question is, would that be to much for Milwaukee to give up for just 2 years of Greinke? I'm not sure myself. -I agree with those that think Dunn would be better than Fielder defensively at 1B. Defensive metrics have no good way to measure a 1Bs ability to receive throws, so I admit this is very subjective. Dunn is 7 inches taller than Fielder, and he appears to have an armspan much larger than his height. That alone would make him better than Fielder, because I couldn't imagine him being more error prone, or be worse at digging low throws. -I'd be concerned with Hart in CF, as he hasn't come close to playing up to his ability in RF. Would being the main man in the OF motivate him to take a more professional approach to defense? I can hope, but thats likely not a reality. If Dunn and Braun played in the same OF, Braun would play RF. Braun has the tools to develop into a solid RF. While he was only average in LF last year, thats pretty impressive for a player who never played the position before, and I'd look for him to continue to improve because of his work ethic, desire, and raw talent.

Looper is a groundball machine, a pretty bad thing to be when your starting infield includes Lamb, Weeks, and Fielder. Look for Loopers ERA to skyrocket in Milwaukee.

I don't see the Angels pursuing Dunn, as his makeup just wouldn't click with Scioscia, and the Angels really avoid huge K, low average hitters. It also seems as though the Angels don't even know what OBA is, so Dunn's biggest strength would be lost on them. As for Fielder being the Brewers only lefthanded bat, he obviously would be replacd by one, but thats not the important part. More importantly, the Brewers would be trading a player who's value in wins is low to the Brewers because his horrid defense is such a huge negative. The Angels would get full value of his offense, because they can DH him. I'm guessing if Teixeira signs with Washinton, the Brewers aquire Nick Johnson from Washinton. That and Mat Gamel moves to 1B at AAA.

I'm really hoping Randy Johnson signs with the Angels. That would make it easier for them to send Santana to Milwaukee for Fielder. The Angels really need a lefty power stick. They just don't have anyone.

I totally agree, and it looks like Fuentes price may haven fallen to that level, and then some, according to Buster Olney. Get it done Doug.

Except you forgot about the fact that we made the playoffs. If we would have traded the same package for a pitcher who would be a long term solution, that pitcher would not have been as good as Sabathia, and we would not have made the playoffs. The problem was bad scouting by Melvin and company, not bad method of operation. Had Melvin signed Ted Lilly, we would have less money tied up, and we'd have a well above average pitcher. Free Agency works for the teams that sign the right players. Tampa has more prospects because they had higher picks. The Brewers improved faster than Tampa did. The Brewers are in no way behind the curve. They have more position prospects in the high minors than they could possibly put on this team. They have plenty of ammo to make trades, and the system is improving. The Brewers had just 13 picks in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft in Jack Zs 1st 8 years here. We now could have 13 in a 2 year period. I see no way that doesn't produce a huge wave of prospects, the biggest this organization has ever seen. Your just criticizing their method of operation before it gets a chance to take hold. This I completely agree with you on. Melvin wines that nobody makes him an offer, but I wish Haudricourt would ask him at the end of winter meetings how many trade offers did he actually make. Melvin is just not aggressive. He is more pre-occupied with getting good value in deals that he fails to realize the goal is to win, not get good value. In the end, GM will be judged by their record, not by the trades they made. Thats based on a very conservative projected team budgett. I would hope the team doesn't slash payroll after record attendance and a profitable season. That would be horrible PR.

One of the main reasons Salome struggles behind the plate is he has stiff hands. Its a big part of him having so many passed balls, and it precludes him from playing an infield position. I think it would be better to compare Gamel to 1 of the many 1Bs or corner OFs that were minor league 3Bs, like Mark Texeria, Carlos Lee, Albert Pujols, or Chris Davis. David Wright was never a terrible defensive 3B.

I used Ramirez as an example just to show how athletic players with batspeed sometimes develop power at a later age. I'm not nessesarily saying Escobar is Ramirez, just saying he might have more power than he's shown to date. The player he might compare best to on the high side is Jose Reyes, as astutely pointed out by Colbyjack.

Which comments are you refering to? The Brewers have been very complimentary of Brewers work ethic and leadership skills. He has 2 more years to develop. Thats a ton of time. Over the final 2 months of the season, he put up an OPS similar to what Braun put up in the FSL. He then put up a dominant short stint in the AFL. You could easily compare Brewers 2008 season to Cain's 2007, and now Cain is a year away from being our starting CF. Hanly Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in the minors, the same number Escobar hit last year, and he was the centerpiece of a deal for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Emilio Bonifacio carried pretty high trade value twice in the last 6 months, and he was never a top 50 prospect. Michael Bourn was the center piece for Brad Lidge. A top prospect carries high trade value, if he didn't he wouldn't be considered a top prospect. They're wasting Headley in LF, and they could just put Scott Hairston there, as Will Venable will likely play CF. However, they have nobody to play SS. Headley may have been their top prospect a year ago, but he wasn't considered a top 20 prospect by BA, whereas Escobar will be. I think this deal would be similar to last years Garza/Young deal, 2 teams with limited financial resources trading young players to fill there needs. Its rare, but it happens. OK, I've edited this a couple times, don't know why the formatting went crazy.

What if we traded him for a longterm solution at a position of need, like 3B or SP? I'm thinking Escobar and Gwynn for Chase Headley or Escobar for 1 of Minnesota's young starters. Trading Escobar makes sense because of the presence of the best athlete in the organization, SS Brent Brewer, and he's only a year behind Escobar.