Never Outhustled

I think what this rumored proposal does is show how valuable Hardy is. Hardy is more valuable than Young, as he's better and cheaper. I find it interesting the the Sox are still searching for a middle infielder. I'm still thinking Cory Hart to Atlanta, Kelly Johnson to Chicago, and Gavin Floyd here. Escobar for Poreda is a deal I'd consider.

He couldn't make it to the 6th inning. Thats not starting material, and thats not even fatoring in the fact that his style of curve doesn't translate well to the Majors.

He couldn't make it to the 6th inning. Thats not starting material, and thats not even fatoring in the fact that his style of curve doesn't translate well to the Majors.

I don't see how Laporta would effect Fielder if he was here. He isn't ready to start in the majors. He might return to AA Akron to start next year. I'm not sure why he has to be. What Dunn does do is replace Hart, freeing him up to be traded. Sure, if you can find a FA starting pitcher for 3yrs/25-30 million, that is a good bet for 8-12 value wins over the next 3 years, I'd be interested in him instead of Dunn.. However, your not going to show me that pitcher, because he doesn't exist. Dunn also provides balance to the Brewers lineup. One could argue that, even if the Brewers didn't score more runs, if there lineup scored more versus RHSP and less versus LHSP, we'd win more games. Scoring less against LHSP would mostly just reduce our margin of victory, as we've oblitorated lefties. A few more runs against RHSP would put us over the top in numerous close games. So even if Dunn is only similar in overall production to Hart, his clear advatage versus RHSP could help the Brewers win more. I could understand you saying this if you thought Hart was no good, but your arguing Hart is better than Dunn. Dunn averages 3 wins a year, which is worth a salary of about $12 million. So Hart for must have some trade value. I think you underrating Escobar. You realize he is a top 25 prospect right? He just spent a full year in AA. He could have value as a big leaguer with his defense alone right now. Adam Everett and Cesar Izturis are both set to start for teams in 2009, and KC and Minnesota are still looking for starters.

How has trading any of those prospects effecting the Brewers going foward? We still have the prospects we need. There won't be a better prospect foursome to start in AAA this year than the Brewers foursome of Gamel, Escobar, Cain, and Salome. We could use a starting pitching prospect at AAA, but the more Inman pitches, the more he cements his future as a reliever. I'd defiately hope the Brewers are in position to make a play for Halladay. He is an outstanding pitcher.

How has trading any of those prospects effecting the Brewers going foward? We still have the prospects we need. There won't be a better prospect foursome to start in AAA this year than the Brewers foursome of Gamel, Escobar, Cain, and Salome. We could use a starting pitching prospect at AAA, but the more Inman pitches, the more he cements his future as a reliever. I'd defiately hope the Brewers are in position to make a play for Halladay. He is an outstanding pitcher.

A deal like this would be the Brewers doing a Billy Beane impersonation and taking advantage of a market inequity. Dunn is downgraded for his K's, which in real perspective makes him 1/3 of a run worse than Fielder over an entire season. That small amount isn't even worth factoring in, yet it is costing Dunn millions. We could sign a pitcher instead of signing Dunn and trading for a pitcher, but I guarantee any pitcher that gets a 3 year deal for around $30 million won't produce as many wins for a team than Dunn will over the next 3 years. Its not what the people here think, its what baseball executives think. Everyone here is well versed in saber-metrics. Only a few MLB teams recognize the art. Theres still a decent number of teams that look at batting average, those being the teams that aren't interested in Dunn. Also, don't discount the fact that Fielder is a name player, and he would create a shortterm buzz at the boxoffice for a team that is struggling to sell tickets. Dunn is the least known 40 homer a year player maybe in baseball history. That shouldn't matter, but it does when meddlesome owners get involved.

OK, who was this? Is he some super sleeper that someone has inside info on?

Where did you see these projections that Hart would be so vauable? I've seen 3 projections for Hart next year, and the highest one had him at a 336 OBA and a 832 OPS. Dunn should continue to be the same player he has been, as he'd finish his 3 year contract before he turns 32. If Hart plays as well as you are hoping, he'll only be significantly cheaper than Dunn next year, and could be more expensive in 2011. No, I was not suggesting we sign Dunn and release Hart. I was suggesting we add a 900 OPS left-handed bat with a heavy OBA, a huge need for a team that finished just 6th in runs with an almost all right-handed lineup, and then trade Hart packaged with Escobar for the starting pitcher we need. I find it stange that in 1 sentence you say Hart will be awesome the next 3 years, and in the next you insinuate that he has little trade value. True, but Dunn's numbers are skewed because of Arizona's ill-advised move to start Dunn in RF 23 times, a position he hasn't played. He committed a few of errors, which blows up the UZR stat. Before last season, Dunn averaged 3 wins per season. At 3 wins per year, he would be underpaidat $10 million a season.

Hart's defense was actually below average in RF last season, because his lackadaisical play lead to numerous errors.

Oh, so your plan for starting pitching to to just sign a young, cheap, healthy established pitcher to a below market rate? We're exploring ways add offense and free up trading chips for pitching. I hope you can catch up, as I'd love to hear your ideas to improve the team. We've already seen reports stating the Brewers contacted Dunn when a Cameron deal looked iminent, why couldn't we due the same with Hart? Hart is Brewer property for 3 more years, but he'll only be cheap for 1 more year if he plays well. Theres little doubt Dunn will hit about 40 Homers next year, as he hits 40 homers every year. We have no idea what kind of production we'll get from Hart next year.

What expendable top 25 prospect do the Reds have? I have never believed that teams just look up a players most recent stats and determine his trade value based on that. Teams do a projection of a player, based on his career work and scout evaluations. Hart's cold streak to end the season has little effect on his value. As for Bedard, I'd be interested if he was healthy, but I don't think he is.

If the Reds offered Bailey for Dye, which they did do, why wouldn't they do Bailey (and more) for Hart. That would be a much smarter deal for them, as hart fills RF for them for 3 years, Dye would have been a 1 year solution. I've never been high on Bailey, but I'm sure a bunch of teams still are. He be a good trade chip. Him and Escobar bundled together should get the kind of pitcher we covet.

Hall was worth $5.7 million last season according to Fangraphs, so he wasn't a negative value player last season, and shouldn't be this next season unless his offense regresses even more. Hall's value last year was all in his defense, and he started out slow defensively for the 1st 3rd of the season. He could be worth a considerable amount of wins with a strong full season of defense and a slightly improved bat.

The only reason Hudson looks better than Weeks is because we're comparing his prime years to Weeks' pre-prime years. On top of that, if we signed Hudson, we'd be getting his post-prime years. We should spend our money somewhere else and keep Weeks.

According to this and this, Adam Dunn is running out of options. The Nationals were a likely target, but they've given up on free agency this year, and the Cubs and Dodgers are the only other team besides the Brewers we've seen have contact with him. The Cubs have instead signed Milton Bradley, and the Dodgers are still targeting Man Ram. With Pat Burrel signing for 2yrs/$16 million and Milton Bradley signing for 3 yrs/$30 million I'd guess Dunn could be had for 3 yrs/25 million, and I'd be willing to do 3 yrs/$30 million if nessecary. Thats a nice deal for the age 29-31 year old years of a 900 OPS guy. I'm still in favor of what I posted earlier, so I'll re-post it: Melvin would have to be creative to get Grienke, but it can be done. The Royals want a SS so they can move Mike Aviles to 2B, and I'd assume they'd want a top pitching prospect to replace Grienke. The Reds offered Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye, and they've said publically they'd still like to add an OF, so I'm sure they'd covet Hart. Hart for a package centered around Bailey, which would be sent to KC along with Alcides Escobar for Greinke. Sign Adum Dunn. Compete for playoffs again in 2009. Compete for playoffs again in 2010. In 2011 worry about possible hole at SS if Brent Brewer isn't ready in 2011.

Ben Fransisco put up a 770 OPS last year, so they'll stick with him. Laporta was awful by the end of last year, he definatly needs some more time in the minors. Cleveland has addressed its needs as well as anyone this offseason, adding closer Kerry Wood, the highly underrated Mark DeRosa at 3B, and reliever Joe Smith.

Do you ever use age in your equation? 4 years from now, when Jeffress is Cody's age, we could pull him from the big league rotation, send him to Brevard County, and see how many no-hitters he throws. You often ignore age and tools, so I would like to ask, what players have you touted in the past have has success that makes you believe in your ranking system?

As 24 year olds, Sizemore had an 852 OPS, Ellsbury a 729 OPS. They don't compare. In Sizemore's first full season he was 2 years younger than Ellsbury was last year and yet he still put up a 832 OPS. The hype around Ellsbury is strong, but the evidence is weak.

His career norm was not established in the 176 innings he at age 21-24. That article also suggests that Floyd's numbers would be better at a different park. While I recognize his BAPIP is a little off, as the Bill James projection shows, it can get worse without Floyd regressing to an average pitcher.

Bill James 2009 prediction for Floyd is a 284 BAPIP and a 4 ERA. When you curve that for a switch to the NL, thats an ERA in the 3.6-3.8 range. Thats the 2nd best predicted for next years Brewer rotation. Floyd would be a fine addition.

His K rate was 6.33, and the average AL starters was 6.20. Like I said, a good K rate, and it will improve when he's pitching to pitchers instead of DHs. So what a pitcher does before age 25 is what he will do the rest of his career? I'm not sure those 179 innings are nearly as relevent as the more recent 206. He also might improve some at age 26 too, as he is only 25 now. His upside is based on his stuff, which is pretty good.

If the Brewers could trade Cory Hart for an established young starting pitcher (see Gavin Floyd thread), I'd be open to having Winn fill a corner OF spot for a year. The Giants are looking at some pretty bad options to fill there 3B hole, I'd inquire about a Hall and a B level prospect for Winn.

According to fangraphs, Hardy was worth $10 million more tha Ellsbury last year. Hardy is only a year older than Ellsbury. Hardy is far more valuable.

I agree Fleehaw, this is definately something the Brewers should get in on. Floyd is the young, productive pitcher with upside we're searching for. We would control him for I think 4 years. He has a good K rate. He's been durable. He put up his numbers this year in the AL, so they should translate well. What really should make it easy for us to get in on this is the fact we already know we can do a Cory Hart for Kelly Johnson deal. We could ask Atlanta for a sweetener, possibly a reliever or lefty swinging LF Brandon Jones. We could make it a 3 way with Johnson to Chicago, or keep Johnson and deal Weeks for Floyd. The Brewers can then sign a FA bat for LF and move Braun to RF. If we kept Johnson, it wouldn't even have to be a lefty bat. This is the young bat for young pitching deal I've been preaching we could do since last offseason.