JohnBriggs12

One doesn't have to look to far to see where a signing like Darvish or Arrieta has the potential to cripple a franchise like the Brewers. Who saw Jordan Zimmermann falling off a cliff after signing a 5 year $105 million deal with Detroit after the 2015 season? This was a guy who finished in the top 7 in the Cy Young voting in 13 and 14. How about James Shields? The guy was an absolute workhorse from 2007 to 2014, logging 200+ innings each year. Entering his age 33 season the Padres got him for what seemed to be a reasonable at the time 4 years and $75 million. He hasn't performed up to that contract from day one. Both Cobb and Darvish are post TJ surgery. Darvish is getting paid like a TOR starter, but has logged 200+ once. His career peaked in 2013-14. He's still good and could help the Cubs get another ring, but what will he look like in 3 or 4 years? Cubs could take that risk. Brewers can't. Cobb on the other hand assuming a 3-4 year deal for something like $13-$14 won't cripple the Brewer franchise even if he fails miserably. He's a year younger and his peak years of 2013-14 are comparable to Darvish at the same time in every respect other than IP and K rate. For the Brewers, it's about getting to the postseason. If over the next couple years they are in great position at the deadline to make a needle moving deal that helps their chances in the postseason, they have the chips to do it.

I've been warming to the idea of Cobb for the reasons you cite. I think his best years could be ahead of him unlike any of the FA starters.

Counsell didn't tolerate those mental errors when this team found itself in a playoff race. I get to see our of town telecasts. You'd be shocked at the respect Perez has around the league compared to Villar primarily for his overall heads up play. That isn't lost on Counsell and neither is Sogard's solid play. The announcers around the league don't think much of Villar either. He gets mocked for his strikeouts and,defensive lapses. They always mention the Brewers as a team having defensive issues with Villar the biggest culpret. Not all of that is their own observation either. They quote their team's coaches.

I wonder if Burgos has a future in the organization as a coach.

Was is the keyword here he is no longer that type of a pitcher. While he is a solid #3 or #4 type pitcher he is no longer that 3 WAR pitcher he once was. Going forward Odorizzi is probably more of a 2 WAR pitcher. Getting Dubon and another prospect is very close to what Odorizzi is worth. He's just about to turn 28. There's still a decent chance he can reverse the trend of his last couple years, especially with move to the NL.

I'm starting to think Cobb could end up being a good sign. What's intriguing to me about Cobb is that he doesn't have a ton of innings, and will be coming into his 2nd full season after TJ surgery. Prior to his surgery this is a guy who had back to back seasons of sub 3 ERAs and that was all accomplished in the league with a DH. Darvish ended up getting roughly 80% of what most predicted he'd get back in November. Cobb on a 3 or 4 year deal in the $13-14 AAV seems reasonable in comparison, and he might well be a better pitcher than Darvish. We need to keep in mind how the huge contracts to pitchers can blow up. See Jordan Zimmermann.

The guy the Brewers should have kept away from the Cubs was Quintana. Darvish isn't likely to be any better than the 2017 version of Arrieta, which wasn't bad but not great at that price. Quintana is the upgrade in their staff from last year to this. Last year the Cubs started the season with a rotation of Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey and Brett Anderson. They still have Lester and Hendricks but around those two are Darvish, Quintana, and Chatwood. That's a significant upgrade over Arrieta, Lackey and Anderson.

Cotton is the kind of guy you get if you're already going to get one of the top FA. He'd add depth and an upside which could allow more moves down the line. Maybe Broxton, Wilkerson, and Villar for Cotton and Lowrie? Anyone know if Cotton has any options left? Maybe the Brewers see him as a reliever?

1 year $30 million (30 per year) 2 year $54 million (27 per year) 3 year $72 million (24 per year) 4 year $88 million (22 per year) with a team buy out for $5 million Let Boras choose his contract. I think both sides would be happy. Jake would get more than Davish per year and the Brewers would get a safer shorter term contract. Personally, I like the 2 year deal. Those are in line what I am thinking it will take. Arrieta isn't sniffing 6 years and likely not 5. Of those deals, I could see Boras taking the 2 years and hoping Arrieta gets one last bite of the apple.

When the Cubs acquired Arrieta they were in the midst of their tank. Same goes for Davies and Anderson for the Brewers. Dealing for Cotton might mean using Burnes in another deal.

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring.

My guess is it will take 5/105. It's possible he could be had for 4 but only if the AAV is a bit higher than Darvish got.

Agree with you on the years but it's going to take $20 AAV minimum. Boras won't settle for less.

Boras' asking price for Arrieta has been well above what Dervish settled for. Now the market has been set and Arrieta is probably going to get similar AAV but for 5 years not 6. I personally like Arrieta more than Darvish so I wouldn't mind Brewers grabbing him.

I wouldn't rule it out but Guerra returning to close to his 2016 form can't be dismissed either. He had to overcome not just an injury last year but coming off his 2016 he was bound to press if things didn't go right early on. Now he's back as an afterthought for many.

Phillips over Villar? Yes Phillips over Sogard/Perez platoon? No Phillips at 36 was better offensively than Villar at 26 and defensively it's a former 4 time gold glover vs. well, Villar. I just don't get the love for Villar. He had one good but flawed season (he still led all of baseball with 29 errors and 18 caught stealing) when his BABIP approached an unrepeatable .400. He had done virtually nothing as a Astro prior to that in a full season of AB's spread over 3 years, and nothing in 2017. As a prospect, he appeared in one top 100 list when he hadn't played a game above low A and that just barely #94. He strikes out a ton for a guy with just moderate power. At 27, he is what he is, a guy who at best might rank from 20-25 among major league 2B, and at worst, has negative value. Phillips could well be done, but he's been one pf the top 2B of his era and he still hit a solid .285 with 13 HR at age 36. On B-R. he projects a .277/.314/.406 line. They could do worse.

There's no question Ford is a shooter and a good one.

Boras is said to be putting on a full court press with Dbacks owner about bringing back Martinez. That would put them in position to have to unload salary somewhere. Their CF Pollack is a FA after this season making a Broxton who still can be optioned a logical trade target. Corbin for Broxton would be a steal. Can't believe the negativity on here for a guy who's been a serviceable LH starter since he was 22 and is still just 28 and in his prime. B-R had him as a 3.1 WAR player in 2017 and he had his career best K rate of a very respectable 8.4 per 9. It's not like they don't have options if he's an utter failure or that they are giving up anything of any value going forward in Broxton.

Just saw a piece on MLB Tonight where they showed statistically which pitchers had the most success by type of pitch in 2017. Best slider? Yep it was Chacin. Knebel by the way had the 3rd most success with a four seam fastball.

Villar has much less value as a utility player than either Perez or Sogard. Unlike Perez who's shown he can adequately play 7 positions and Sogard who can play SS and 2B, Villar has been moved from position to position because he's failed defensively wherever's he's been tried. He's least bad at 2B. Villar posted a woeful .607 OPS vs. RHP in 2017. Perez hit lefties at a .789 clip in 2017. Sogard had a .402 OBP vs. RHP. That's just the numbers, but the real separation between Perez/Sogard and Villar is the mental aspect of the game. Perez and Sogard are very heads up type players for lack of a better term and simply do not make anywhere near the mental errors that Villar is famous for. Last September when all of Walker, Sogard, Perez and Villar were on the roster, Walker made approximately half the starts at 2B, with Sogard and Perez splitting the rest, save for the meaningless finale that Villar started, his only start at 2B the entire month. That tells you all you want to know what Counsell thinks of them. If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. He might be gone anyway. Maybe not immediately, but Counsell likes the versatility and the heads up play of Sogard and Perez on his bench if not sharing the 2B job, and not the frustrating play of Villar. There's nothing to suggest that the 2016 season of Villar was anything but an outlier. He didn't do much as an Astro, and he failed in 2017 after being given the job over Scooter Gennett who went on to flourish as a Red.

Problem with this plan is you can't determine a fan's loyalty by his address. A large percentage of Cub fans at Miller Park reside in Wisconsin. Add in the fact that for many Cub fans in northern suburbs, it's much easier to get to Miller Park than it is to get to Wrigley so much so that they are willing to pay a premium for tickets.

I like McCugh a heck of a lot more than risking a long term deal for Lynn or Cobb. Stearns sure knows him. His numbers should improve in the NL too.

I'm with you. It's been a while since we've this much to look forward to. Having said that, the pitching still scares me a little bit. If Nelson were healthy then I'd feel better but he isn't and there is no guarantee he will be. I don't think they need Kershaw, but they need improvements. I too wouldn't like to head into the season with our current rotation. But by all reports I seriously doubt that will happen. Adding say Cobb would mean Anderson/Cobb/Davies/Chacin and some combo of Woodruff/Guerra/Suter/Wilkerson/Gallardo. Until Nelson comes back strong, if he can. I think that's pretty good. And if they can roll with Domingo, put Braun at 1B with some spot starts in LF/RF, play Thames a little less against RHPs and not at all against LHPs, get a lottery ticket for Aguilar, that's all looking pretty good. They can stash Broxton in AAA if they can't get anything for him in a trade, and roll with Phillips as 4th OF, sometimes displaced by Braunie with his spot starts in corner OF. And yeah maybe sign Walker. Boy what's not to like with this lineup? Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Santana Walker Piña Arcia Bench: Thames Vogt Phillips Villar Hernan/Sogard (One might have to go if Walker is signed) If Walker is signed, Villar is gone. Both Sogard and Perez can play SS better than Villar, and Perez can play better 3B. Perez can also play all 3 OF spots if needed. Villar's being kept either as potential trade bait or on the off chance he'll rediscover his 2016 stroke, not to be an end of the bench guy. Sogard and Perez are better bench players. Villar's OPS vs. LHP in 2017: .607. Perez vs. LHP in 2017: .789. You want to give Walker (who's a much better hitter from the left side) or Shaw a day off vs. a LHP? Perez is the guy. Give Arcia a day off here and there vs. a RHP? Sogard is your guy. Especially if Aguilar isn't around and a RH bat is needed late, I'd take Perez over Villar.

I believe his velocity came back up a tick in the 2nd half, but the real reason the Cubs and other teams have stayed away from him is that Boras is holding out for 6/150 range. That isn't happening. He logged 240 total innings in 2015 and 220 in 2016. That's a heavy workload. I think he can still be very effective as a 6 inning starter for a few years but you don't pay those guys $25 million a year. Somebody will eventually give him 5 years in the 90-100 million range when they suspect Boras is ready to accept reality and he'll sign. My guess is his offers now are all in the 4 for 80 range. I'm sure there's a level that Stearns would jump in and maybe go with that 5th year, but that's at least a month off.

Hey John Lackey is still available. I know he led the NL in HR allowed, but the Cubs went 11-3 in his starts after the All Star Game and he had a 3.75 ERA in that stretch. He's certainly not Mr. Personality, but he's as tough a competitor as there is.