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danzig6767

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Everything posted by danzig6767

  1. danzig6767
    Teams are willing to give lots of money to good free agents in their 30's, just not as many 5-10 year contracts when it's a near lock that most of those players will be in decline to deep decline on the back end of the contracts. Good to great players who reach free agency in their 20's though will still get the mega contracts. Keep in mind that one factor in this is that a number of good players like Yelich for example took early money and in doing so, they sold out free agency years in a risk/reward bargain struck between team and player. FWIW, I agree with you that players should get around a roughly 50/50 split of revenues and thus if teams for the most part stop giving long contracts to free agents in their 30's, then in the next CBA adjustments can be made on when players can reach free agency. Teams though can't be forced to make dumb decisions of years past by signing 30 plus year old players to contracts excessive in length which history has shown backfires more than it pays off.
  2. danzig6767
    That's exactly why these players have no leg to stand on. There have been plenty of reports of the top free agents getting offers that are more than fair and the players are rejecting them or holding out for more money. These aren't low ball offers that are well below market value. Please ask the 10 or so RP's that signed already how free agency went for them. I suspect that most of these free agents are being offered fair per year dollar amounts, but what teams are mainly balking at is the number of years which the agents and players want. Boston likely offered JD Martinez big money per year, but only 4-5 years when he wants 6-7 years. Arrieta and Boras are likely asking for 5-6 years and teams aren't willing to offer more than four. Same for Lynn and Cobb, teams likely aren't willing to offer more than 3 or 4 years at most. Reports are it's the number of years as to why Hosmer isn't signed. Teams and GM's seem to have finally learned lessons from the past when it comes to free agency. More often than not, it isn't the yearly salaries paid to prominent free agents which causes teams problems so much as the 5th/6th/7th/8th or more years on long term mega contracts, leading to excessive dead money, especially for free agents over 30 years old. This is a trend i see continuing going forward for vets over 30.
  3. danzig6767
    This is an assumption by you that Tampa would only ask for this. They very well could have little or no interest in Santana, but instead just want 3-4 of our better prospects. Or expect Santana/Burnes/Woodruff and another talent. Until a trade actually happens, it's really hard to say pro or con. The exact details are what matters.
  4. danzig6767
    If Archer keeps serving up homers as he has the last two years, 57 combined, he is being overrated as an ace. The strikeout numbers are nice, but back to back 4 ERA seasons isn't top of the rotation production. Gutting our farm system to get Zach Davies like results would suck. Maybe Archer can get over his gohper ball issues and get back to the low 3 ERA pitcher he once was, but maybe he won't.
  5. danzig6767
    I get the premise, but it makes you wonder why the Cubs seem to have such tepid interest in resigning Arrieta given they've seem him up close? https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/01/10/jake-arrieta-free-agency-value
  6. danzig6767
    I am worried the number of years and money it would take to sign Darvish. For all angst some here had over giving Cain five years and potentially him not aging well, thus leaving the Brewers on the hook in years 4 or 5 for a declining or really declining player, Darvish very well could get 25-30 million per and at least five years, maybe six. We hand out a contract like that and Darvish accepts it, that could be a franchise crippling decision if it goes badly via injury or quicker than expected decline. Even more so if it corresponded with him and Cain declining at the same time. FWIW, I'd be excited if Darvish picked the Brewers, but it could also be the riskiest signing in team history given big money long term contracts to free agent pitchers can backfire badly.
  7. danzig6767
    Yea, just because he likely is in the pen this year, it doesn't have to mean that he stays there for good. Plenty of starters began their big league career in the bullpen first.
  8. danzig6767
    For me, the problem with trading for Jordan is twofold 1. He can be a free agent after the season 2. To resign him, it'll likely cost around 25 million per The Bucks could badly use Jordan's defense and especially his rebounding instead playing the toothpick towers 40 minutes a game. Henson has been better this year, but he's more backup caliber and Thon is terrible. If we didn't have so much overpaid money on the cap via Teletovic, Snell, and Dellavedova eating up about 35 million per combined, i'd be ok with trading for Jordan and resigning him. That's not the case though.
  9. danzig6767
    Yea, Wisconsin was very fortunate to come out with a tie. I thought their chances for tournament bid were shot a few weeks ago, but they have four huge games coming up against Michigan and Minnesota.
  10. danzig6767
    Attanasio had to make a ton of cash last season. Lowest payroll in baseball, yet 10th in average attendance, revenue sharing money, local TV money, national TV money, along with other revenue streams. Attanasio has shown that he isn't a cheap owner looking to just get even richer off his team compared to some owners, but i'm with you. Between profits and the value of the team probably tripling, buying the Brewers has been a fabulous financial investment for him and he gets to have the fun of being a pro sports owner.
  11. danzig6767
    I also think that this and other moves signal that Stearns and his analytics team think that OF defense/range is undervalued in the market. Replacing Santana with Yelich, signing Cain, drafting athletic OFs in the 1st round three years in a row (Grisham, Ray, Lutz - who played CF this past year). Yeah, they gave up an athletic OF in Brinson but replaced him with two. Yea, Stearns clearly targeted two guys that not only will change our lineup, both are also plus defenders and good baserunners. When they drafted Ray, i think the team scouts hoped that he would turn into a Yelich type of player. Maybe not great at any one aspect of the game, but good to solid at everything. Unfortunately though, so far at least, Ray looks like a bust.
  12. danzig6767
    It was reported in multiple places that Cain had four year offers from three or four teams, and that sounds likely. The Brewers very well were one of those teams and when they finally offered a 5th year, a deal was done. Clearly, Stearns and everyone here would have preferred it was only a four year deal or the 5th year a team option, but he wanted the deal to get done, so he offered five years. Most here realize that the odds are higher that by the 5th year, Cain won't be productive in line with his salary. I'll be happy with three good years, a solid 4th year, and a 5th year where Cain is a fringe starter/platoon guy. Most free agents are 30 or older and part of the deal when signing them to multi-year contracts is often the last year or two has those players in decline to deep decline.
  13. danzig6767
    Given our current lower payroll, i wish those salaries were revered, starting at 17 million this year and ending at 13 million in 2022.
  14. danzig6767
    Colorado isn't trading Gray and certainly not for Santana and Thames. Tampa isn't trading Archer for a package like that. Philly signed Carlos Santana, so they no longer look to be rebuilding and they would hang up in two seconds if we only offered Broxton and a couple young prospects like Peralta & Ponce for Nola. Toronto isn't trading Stroman this year and would be insulted if we only offered Santana, Woodruff and a prospect unless that prospect was Burnes. Seattle also hangs up in a blink if we only offered Santana, Thames, Davies for Paxton, who they wouldn't trade anyways. They can't be competitive by trading away their best starter.. Imagine we had any of those pitchers and were offered these type of deals, Stearns would get crushed for accepting any of them. Young/cost controlled quality starters are the most valuable commodities in baseball.
  15. danzig6767
    To bad Ray didn't pan out so either he was a gem still in the system or included in this trade, allowing us to keep Harrison or Brinson. Come to think of it, Yelish is the type of player i think the Brewers envisioned Ray becoming. Not special at one aspect of the game, but good at pretty much everything.
  16. danzig6767
    So much will depend on the whole pitching staff next year, regardless of the upgrade to position players and right now at least, the pitching staff is a large question mark.
  17. danzig6767
    How much does that really matter in the 70s? I feel like teams are not going way under slot in that range. Last year slot was almost $800,000 for pick 73. So it matters quite a bit. You'd use that slot money on the player drafted with the 73rd pick, which we no longer have, unless we drafted someone at 73 who took significantly less money for being picked there. It's not like the Brewers would have passed on picking someone at 73 to use the 800 grand elsewhere.
  18. danzig6767
    My thought exactly given how low the current payroll is.
  19. danzig6767
    Most prospects have one agenda far and away above all else, to simply get on a major league field both to realize their dream and to start earning big league paychecks. Worrying about being on a winning team becomes a bigger factor once these young players get settled in and prove themselves after a few years.
  20. danzig6767
    I read somewhere that Miami could ask interested teams to take on a decent sized chunk of Wei-Yin Chen's contract. If so, the prospect haul in return would lessen.
  21. danzig6767
    Bummer Assuming Darvish signs elsewhere, I never thought the odds were more than tiny at best for a variety of reasons.
  22. danzig6767
    A few things when it comes to a trade 1. I think one will eventually happen, but Stearns isn't working the phones with an agenda of satisfying people on message boards desire to see something happen ASAP. 2. Odds are if/when a trade happens, it will involve a scenario not mentioned previously on message boards because real GM's know better than to leak out serious conversations between each other. It's more rare than common that a real trade happens between two teams where rumors of the players involved had previously been leaked or rumored about.
  23. danzig6767
    That could be the end of any chance we have of landing Darvish. Too perfect that the freaking Cubs will be the ones to end that dream. Darvish will be making a decision involving potentially tens of millions of dollars between various teams, important clauses in those contract offers, where he'll live the next 4-6 years, how competitive he feels each team will be, etc etc, so i have a hard time believing that who the backup catcher is on the team he signs with will be up there with the other factors.
  24. danzig6767
    To my point above: Mark Attanasio hasn't put the team up for sale, so the value increase means nothing to the team's day-to-day finances. And when he sells the team, those proceeds go to Mark A., not the team, so again the day-to-day finances aren't affected. It's still an asset with a value to it. If a person owns a company or companies instead of a pro sports team, that company/companies has a value towards that person's net worth. It's really no different. Take Jerry Jones. He owns the Dallas Cowboys and it's valued at over 3 billion dollars. This is his main financial asset and thus he's a billionaire, even though he isn't selling the team currently. Attanasio has a financial portfolio and part of that is his ownership of the Brewers, and the estimated value of the franchise. So given the franchise is easily worth more than double what he's paid for it, his net worth has gone up that much.
  25. danzig6767
    Revenue sharing certainly helps smaller market teams who actually are trying to win. That said, i can see why it gets on the nerves of big market payers into the system when they see a number of teams/owners carry a small payroll and thus in effect, pocket that revenue sharing money for profits to the owner. As for socalled collusion, i don't buy it. If anything is hurting free agents that isn't talked about much is analytics. GM spots are now filled all over the place with analytics driven guys and it's leading to two things. 1. Their studies show them more and more that contracts say 5 years and longer are often bad deals for the team, especially for free agents already approaching age 30 or 30 plus. 2. These GM's use all kinds of data to either try unearthing undervalued gems or use various data to determine that yea X high priced free agent is better than X lesser player, but not at 20-25 million per over 5-6 seasons. Simply big counting stats at the plate no longer have multiple owners fighting each other to open their checkbook in a bidding war.
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