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bjkrautk

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Everything posted by bjkrautk

  1. I marvel in his ability to get paid for that.
  2. If it did come with the territory, it wouldn't be a cause to call 911 in and of itself. While Ms. Andrews has developed a niche following with ESPN viewers, the viral release of this "sexy" video (I can't really call it a sextape) has removed her from the confines of the 4-letter network, and appears to be creating a demand for paparazzi-type pictures. This something new to her. I do feel bad for her, since I have never had the sense that she went into sports journalism in order to be famous (e.g. Lisa Guerrero, and the weather girl for Fox's NFL coverage whose name eludes me as I type this). While her photogenic qualities certainly helped her get to ESPN, she hasn't looked for an opportunity to spin that fame into a job somewhere else (or even commercial spokesperson work). She enjoys her work as a sidelines reporter, and she's good at it (not that the job has a ton of qualifications, but she does provide actual information during the broadcasts). Also, given the number of interviews I've seen Erin Andrews give to people - mostly those linked to here on Brewerfan - she seems readily approachable and down-to-earth. It can't be easy getting ready to go back on the road for college football season with this in your head.
  3. 5 runs in 4 innings...and Villa was supposed to be the better option?!? Can it be Dillard time now?
  4. The really surprising aspect of the trade (based on the link) is that the Indians are expected to call up Andy Marte to play 1b instead of LaPorta.
  5. Yet that is exactly what we ask Managers to do on a daily basis, weigh the relative value of small samples (batter v. pitcher matchups, week/month/season-to-date stats v. career numbers, etc.) and make the decision which they feel to be in the best interest of the team. Relative to the CV move, my underlying expectation/assumption is that there is some underlying cause for his downturn (mechanical, lack of confidence, hidden injury, etc.) that would be - at best - a ripple in a statistically significant sample. None of these causes severely affects my long-term expectations or consideration for CV (who I've always felt is better as a reliever than a starter), but does have an effect on his usefulness in the short term. Were I to assume the opposite, that individual innings pitched are independent events, with no carry-over or causal relationships, I would agree with your views on trend analysis.
  6. Statistically significant =/= meaningful. CV's ERA does not hold predictive value, as you wouldn't project his ERA to be over 6 in 2010 based on those 43 innings. That's quite a bit different from saying that they're meaningless. His giving up earned runs in 4 of his last 5 relief appearances (he threw all of 2 pitches in the other appearance) is also not a basis for meaningful prediction, but does allow for the assumption that he is not pitching well right now. If I thought I would be getting the average attempt based on the 320 major league IP that makes up CV's career....I might understand the decision. Expectations adjusted for recent trends, I'd rather see the guy who hasn't been struggling of-late.
  7. Just to add my personal gripe, he likes to issue the IBB with runners on and one out, with a struggling pitcher on the mound (like Suppan in the 6th last night, except he actually took Soup out after the IBB...so the runs were eventually charged to him). It's playing with fire, as far as I can tell, particularly when working with fly-ball prone pitching. RE: Leadoff, the problem once Weeks went down is finding enough players in the lineup who were hitting well. Counsell needs his days off, in order to keep having the second-best season of his career (at age 38), while McGehee was needed to provide some protection for Prince (due to the offensive failings of Hall, Hardy, Hart, as well as Cameron's slump in the month of June). That created an opening against LHP when Counsell sat out. Kendall's leadoff opportunities were largely a result of his .378 OBP in June, and Gamel not being a good fit for the leadoff spot. I'm not a big believer in the need for a set batting order, since the player's role in each AB should be more a function of the situation (e.g., runner on 3b, 0-1 out = hit the ball into the outfield for a Sac fly at worst, do not strike out) than a more traditional routine. Gamel's lack of PT also seemed caused by the surging successes of Counsell and McGehee. It would have been easier to drop Gamel in the 6/7 spot in the order if other people were hitting (besides Braun and Fielder, of course). Don't really like CV getting the start tonight....I don't think his stuff is good enough to get through the lineup a 3rd / 4th time. On the other hand, I really haven't seen enough of Dillard to say that he's the better option.
  8. ...are you sure that's not all the Alcohol, Tony? (Maybe he should get into his car and sleep that one off.)
  9. Touche. The Mark Rogers pick - as someone who doesn't like taking HS pitchers in the first round in general - is one that still doesn't sit well with me. My sense at the time, from reading all the scouting reports, is that not only did we take a HS pitcher in the first round....but we didn't get the best available HS pitcher (Bailey went to Cincinnati 2 picks later). I know, different scouts always view players differently, but there was a fairly general consensus around Bailey as the top HS arm coming into the draft, aside from the unsignable Weaver. (Yo developed into one of the top pitchers, and was a 2nd round pick, but didn't have the same upside - velocity - that Bailey did.) I don't know if the BF.net archives go back that far, but I remember saying the same thing then that I'm saying now (minus the foresight about Yo's development).
  10. Agreed; there are just some things which, once seen, cannot be unseen.
  11. You think they'd take Mark Rogers straight-up over Bailey? (It could happen....it did happen!)
  12. I now want to see an Aaron Sorkin-ized version of Moneyball....just to see if this sequence makes the cut: Ray Durham - You know what we need to do more of here in Oakland? A's Coach - Stealing bases? RD - Stealing bases. Coach - We've never been big on stealing bases here in Oakland. RD - You know how many bases I stole with the White Sox before getting here? Coach - Twenty? RD - Twenty. Know how many bases I've stolen since the trade? Coach - How many? RD - Six. Coach - We should talk to Billy about stealing bases. BEST MOVIE EVER!!! (I generally love Sorkin's work - never got into West Wing, but I own Sports Nite on DVD, and went out of my way to see the Studio 60 finale - but the guy has some tropes in his writing style.)
  13. If Trevor just gets a glove on Loretta's ball, it could've been game over... At least they managed to get out of the inning with a tie. Time to get the win!
  14. Exactly what I was thinking. Obviously not going to happen because he's up at the plate, but I like the idea of putting Parra in a position where he's given you a quality start & can't lose the game. Unless you're going to let him pitch for the shutout, this would have been the ideal time to get him out of the game with some confidence.
  15. I just can't get into UFC anymore. I started watching about...a hundred shows ago, back when there were no weight divisions, and they had actual, bracketed tournaments, with guys fighting multiple times during the course of the PPV. I really enjoyed the first 4-5, when it all felt new. If I can't see a 180 pound shoot-fighter squaring off against a sumo wrestler....what's the point?
  16. You and I have vastly different recollections of Kendall's time with the Pirates. Kendall was one of my favorite non-Brewers while he was in Pittsburgh; he was never Pudge or Charles Johnson behind the plate, but he more than held his own in the running game. Both in Oakland and Milwaukee, a majority of the starting pitchers have campaigned for Kendall to catch their games, or have credited him with a portion of their success. Wouldn't they rather have the better-hitting catcher if all other things were equal?
  17. I don't really understand the intentional walk to the #8 hitter with one out. You're essentially choosing to pitch to one of the Cardinals' best hitters at getting on base (leadoff hitter) instead of pitching to the position player who's worst at getting on-base (#8 hitter). Sure, there's a chance that the pitcher will GIDP, but there's a better chance that he makes only 1 out, and you have to pitch to the better hitter. Hindsight's 20/20, of course ...I just wish I had been closer to my computer when it was happening.
  18. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4313487 Lenny Dykstra has filed for Bankruptcy protection, with no more than $50k. in assets against 10-50 million in liabilities.
  19. That was the striking thing to me about the article; the HY admitted to seat-moving during the course of the game. The Brewers organization knows where his season tickets are, and know when he isn't in that seat. They can make the problem go away if they want to.
  20. He's younger than Narveson, and actually has a lower ERA. If he didn't have a reverse split for a LHP, I'd put him in the bullpen.
  21. I don't know if it was a short-term tribute, but on Sunday Braun had switched his walk-up music to Michael Jackson's "Smooth Criminal."
  22. http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=7723?page=1 Just in case anyone wants to compare their thoughts on the 50 game suspension to the 100-gamer.
  23. How many big name college guys actually like those three actually make it in the league? And look at how many former foreign project guys played key roles for the contenders this season. Isn't one of the best players on the Bucks one of those bigger named College players? I think he went to Ohio State, yet got drafted in the second round.
  24. The arguments are mostly valid, but this is a place where the UW athletics department has dug in their (high) heels. They would rather continue to offer Golf, Cross Country, Rowing, Swimming, Tennis, Track, and Wrestling - all using existing facilities - than renovate a baseball facility to try a sport that has repeatedly failed to draw sustainable attendance numbers in the Madison area (prior to the Madison Mallards in the NWL -- which I assume is still doing well). The Badgers are actually in a relatively strong position as an athletic department, as their football, mens basketball, womens basketball, and mens hockey teams all manage to bring in revenue at/above a break-even level (I don't know enough about Womens hockey to know if they do likewise). They would rather spend their remaining allocation of funds on a larger number of 'cheap' sports than on another really expensive program (due to all the travel requirements). It's not as easy as saying - here, just add 2 new sports (assuming the # of scholarships and total funds allocated balance between gymnastics and baseball) - they would need to pare down to operate within budget constraints. Personally, while I don't like the justification for not having Baseball at UW, it's a legitimate argument.
  25. 4/22/09: 27.0 OSwing% 64.2 ZSwing% 44.2 Swing% 36.7 OContact% 86.9 ZContact% 70.3 Contact% 46.1 Zone% 60.3 F-Strike% 5/21/09: 22.5 OSwing% 66.6 ZSwing% 44.5 Swing% 41.3 OContact% 80.5 ZContact% 70.6 Contact% 49.9 Zone% 55.0 F-Strike% 6/25/09: 24.4 OSwing% 70.2 ZSwing% 47.1 Swing% 51.1 OContact% 82.3 ZContact% 74.1 Contact% 49.6 Zone% 57.8 F-Strike% Nearly all of his plate discipline numbers are within a fairly normal deviation from his career numbers (2-3% -- first pitch strikes being the one real outlier). Given that Hart has enjoyed a solid June (.845 OPS) and April (.873) sandwiching a lousy May (.626), it is interesting to start seeing what varied from month-to-month, and how did that have an effect on performance. Counterintuitively, his OSwing% seems to track in direct proportion to his OPS -- he swung at more bad pitches during his good months than during his bad month. I'll be interested to see if his contact% continues to go up on a monthly basis; his strikeout pace is now down to a projected 149.
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