bjkrautk

Big crowd has little to do with it. The problem is - just like Tuesday and Thursday - that I'll be going to the game. (They can't seriously pull the hat trick, can they? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif )

Yet another horribly disappointing game I was at this week. I'm convinced that the promotions schedule was set up so that BP could add insult to economic injury. Knowing that Wise was available makes it that much worse. Kane Davis should not be allowed to pitch in another close game this month (which is to say, as long as he's wearing a Brewers uniform). That said, I have to flip back to around the 3rd inning, to see if there were any comments on how Branyan's nearly throwing the ball to the camera pit wasn't an error. Especially since that one runner scored, and was essentially the difference between getting to Turnbow in the 9th and not doing so. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

Also at the game...Davis was just horrible in the first. He just couldn't get to strike three....or throw strikes for that matter. I could keep ranting, but sight unseen, I'm sure there's plenty of that in the rest of the game thread. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

yost, you bench jenkins, why not give overbay a day off and let fielder start??? [Edit: Hudson was the RHP from the A's Big Three - my bad.] With the off-day Monday, it's like giving Jenks an extra day's rest.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/sick.gif Please let it be nothing serious...

Flori_a. (No 'D' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif )

With Juan Pierre on first and Cappy on the hill, it's almost anticlimactic when he throws to the plate.

Can we get over .500 before we start talking Wild Card on a day-to-day basis? I'm fairly sure that it will take more than 80 wins after all...

I want at least a split, but I would love 3 out of 4 this weekend.

Weeks is starting to warm up. Why bench him? Probably to give him a day off before the Houston series (which essentially matter twice as much should the Brewers put themselves in a position to make a WC run). Right in the middle of 10 straight games without a day off.

Unusually good microphone work on the field for Ned's ejection.... (I'd write up parts of it, but that would draw Brian's ire.)

If you're of the opinion that strikeouts are detrimental (I'm of that opinion, but my guess is "less so" than others), the quesiton is how many points should we "subtract" from Russell's OPS to account for these things? I agree to the notion that if you took Branyan and his .900 OPS and swapped him a guy with an equal OPS and less strikeouts, obviously I would go with player B... The question is, how much of a detriment are Branyan's K's, and how do you quantify that?... because to me, a .900 OPS (and more importantly, a 1.001 OPS against righties) can't be nullified THAT much by k's. Give me 1,000 years, a high-powered computer, play-by-play data of every game played in the 1990s, and a roomfull of monkeys with typewriters....and I may be able to give you an answer. One of the problems with thinking of hitting as being dictated by situation is that it doesn't fit the pure statistics we commonly think about. I can say that I think it's possible to maximize runs scored by moving runners and taking advantage of situations, but that's about where my math runs out. I will say that I don't think it's coincidental that, in the last four years, the two times that the A's have outproduced their expected runs created, it's been the two years in which strikeouts per AB were lowest. Actually, if you rank the prior three years...the fewer the strikeouts, the better they perform relative to OPS. (Projecting the current 2005 ratio over a full season's worth of ABs makes the relationship true for this year as well.) To try to make any conclusive evidence of 'slappymetrics,' though, I'd have to crunch far more datasets to see if the same +/- relationship occurs. If it does, then I might be able to figure out a adequate discount rate for K's. (Even then, the discount would be based on team, and not individual, performance.)

what those splits show is that when the pitcher needs an out, Braynan has no chance. He is not that good of a hitter. His OPS rises when no one is on base or it is a meaningless at bat. Not....quite... Actually in some of the situations I've mentioned, Branyan has a lofty OPS. With a runner on 3rd and fewer than two outs, his OPS is over 1.000. He's been very good with RISP this year in OPS terms, which is offset by being slightly below-his-average in the three preceeding years. (In case it's not clear by now, I'm aggregating the 1 & 3 year splits from ESPN.com -- I don't feel like recalculating for OPS.) It's the inconsistency in Branyan's production that's highly frustrating, not necessarily the aggregate results. For people who consider situational hitting to be fundamental, watching a professional seem oblivious to this aspect of the game is aggravating. That's why he's ever the flashpoint for the 'observational' v. 'statistical' analysis types.

The problem with productive outs is essentially the same one that existed when we debated the Olney article: it is always preferrable to not make an out than it is to make a productive one. I'd be more interested in tracking % of ABs yielding non-productive outs with runners on (strikeouts, pop-ups, foul outs, ground balls hit in front of the runner, etc.), and see how that correlates with runs scored. I could repeat the arguments I've made in the past about how stats don't measure situational hitting (that is - if people could actually agree what the situation calls for). I'll save all the descriptions but one that I'm hoping 90% of people here will agree with: If there's a runner at third, the hitter's primary job is to get that run home. There are nuances to that scenario (if a team is down multiple runs, the number of outs, and the point in the game), but generally speaking, a run is preferrable to an out. The reason that Branyan is such a frustrating hitter for so many of us to watch is that, in these situations, he strikes out half the time. That's not an exaggeration, either. Splits -- 2002-2005 Man on 3rd, < 2 outs: 22 K's in 40 AB Man on 3rd*: 48 Ks in 96 AB RISP: 115 Ks in 230 AB *-Total of runners on 3rd, 1st & 3rd, 2nd & 3rd, and Bases Loaded. I won't say that he scores "meaningless runs," or any of the observation-based criteria that make the more sabermetric among us cringe. I will say that his high number of non-productive outs in run scoring position negate most (if not all) of the production you'd expect from a player with his kind of OPS. Strikeouts are never productive; that's why some of us hate watching Russell play.

Jeremy Giambi was a leadoff hitter for a little while....anything's possible. (The real question is whether Hart would be a good leadoff hitter. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif )

....maybe this team doesn't need help in the bullpen after all... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

http://studyrussian.com/rouble/pic/500.jpg

I blame the bad mojo for the loss.

For whatever it's worth, did anyone realize that the Brewers haven't drafted a switch hitting position player since 2003? I don't know how this compares to other teams, but it had recently occurred to me that the Brewers haven't developed a switch hitter in quite some time now. And with only one member of the Power 50 hitting from both sides of the plate (Callix Crabbe), that doesn't appear to be changing too much in the years to come. I was wondering what the cause of this trend might be. Are there fewer players learning to switch-hit now than there were 5-10 years ago? Is this a conscious decision being made by Jack Z? Or, is the best player available when the Brewers drafted seemingly never a switch hitter? One would assume that there is more risk involved in drafting a switch-hitter....essentially, there are two different swings to scout, project, and ultimately, have to fix when / if something goes wrong. Considering the tactical advantage from a bench player who is even marginally good at hitting from the other side (the reason Magruder has a major-league job), is this a skill that the Brewers should be looking to develop / promote more?

Angel Salome already had one, so how about a thread on Chad Moeller's difficulties in blocking pitches in the dirt?

It's bad mojo to ask for more bad mojo. http://www.after-science.com/quicktime/asMojo.jpg

Carlos giveth, Jenkins taketh away.

Colby got one of his birthday wishes....a few more runs for the home team and he'll get the other one. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

So, does Capuano hit for himself here? (Shouldn't....but I'm guessing he will.)

What is the record for most double plays recorded by a team in one game? (3 in 3 innings thusfar.)