ninja33
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Everything posted by ninja33
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i was just going to call that. maybe not a HR, but a Conrad walkoff. 0-21, he's due!
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davidson should still be suspended. oh well, ax takes care of it. get him a W!
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surprisingly well.
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What do you think we have in Aoki?
ninja33 replied to SenatorShriv's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
yes, there are plenty of flaws. But over 3+ seasons most defensive metrics give a pretty accurate description of a player. And just about every defensive metric agrees that Nyjer Morgan is an above average to very good defender. it's probably not fair for me to use metrics that need 3 seasons to say Morgan is a better defender than Aoki, for whom I am using the eye test (from the brief time we've had him, I don't think he has the speed/range to be anything more than adequate). But I still feel comfortable saying that Morgan is a good defender based on what I've seen (and that includes a weak arm and the occasional bad route to a ball) and the defensive metrics that support that conclusion. -
What do you think we have in Aoki?
ninja33 replied to SenatorShriv's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I won't debate the arm, but Morgan is a better defender than Aoki. One nice over the shoulder catch from Aoki does not count for more than 3+ seasons of Morgan grading out as an above-average to very good defender in just about every metric (aside from however they measure arm strength). I really don't think it's even that close. And that's not me saying I have a problem with the way Aoki plays defense in CF...I just don't understand people saying Morgan is a bad defender. -
that's a 20 inning sample size you're talking about, so it's a little bold to make that proclamation. BUT, if that is true, it depends on if he's going to be used in moderate to high leverage situations. If he's pitching in the 7th inning of a tied or close game, then hopefully its just to face a LHB. If he's going to fill the Vinnie Chulk role of "hey, we're already down by 4 just try to not make it 8" (and in the case of Chulk, fail) and be used so we don't waste innings of "good" relievers.....then it's no big deal.
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I said that in the IGT yesterday. turns out you were wrong.
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Conrad is here because Gomez hasn't been activated yet. He'll pinch hit against LHP so a guy like Morgan doesn't have to. And then on Sunday he'll be replaced. I'm guessing Green isn't playing because he's being protected from hitting against LHP. I don't know his splits, so I don't know if I agree with that or not...but that's probably the reason. I get that it'll be the fourth straight game he hasn't started, the past two have been against LHP, and in the others Ishikawa hit two HRs (and then was coming off a 2 HR game). I don't want him up if he won't be playing either, but I would guess we'll see him this weekend unless Ishikawa has another great game.
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man...I've tried to keep some optimism (guys have to turn it around, easier schedule coming up, etc...), but good lord. getting shutout by JA Happ and friends really really takes the wind out of you. yuck.
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i would agree with that. both parts.
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He's been awful, and I know most will disagree with me (vehemently).....but I'm actually OK with Conrad in the lineup tonight. Career OPS vs. lefties: Conrad: .762 Ishikawa: .582 Green: .000 (I think it's one AB. I don't know where to find minor league splits) Conrad is more than likely off the team when Gomez is activated...but I think it's worth giving him a shot against a LH starter to see if he has any value as a RH bat on the bench (something the Brewers don't exactly have), or maybe as part of whatever 1B platoon they come up with (he's surprisingly only had 1 start vs. a LHP). JA Happ has been hammered by RHB this season (.933 OPS, there's a split for his career as well), so get the RHB in the lineup. Not saying he should be an option the rest of the season (or even the rest of this month)...but tonight he might be the best one against a LHP. There definitely isn't a good one, so I guess why not?
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Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....
ninja33 replied to miggs721's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think on the FA market Greinke gets a 6 year $140 million deal (similar to Santana's deal or CC's minus the 7th year). The way contracts have been handed out lately though, I guess there's a chance it balloons up into that $150 million (or 7+ years, or both) range. But I think the market value is about 6 yr/$140M. without REALLY knowing anything about Greinke but just taking a look at his personality/interviews and all that, I think he would stay in Milwaukee for the Matt Cain contract. That's not much of a discount (well, $2M a year is a bit of money), but hometown discounts can only go so far. That's where a new discussion would have to start between Zack and Milwaukee. -
my optimism (what's left of it) stems from guys underperforming who should turn it around (that's kind of like getting guys back from injury ala last year....right? right?)...but mostly from the upcoming schedule. They should go into June around 3 games under .500 (win tomorrow, 4 win homestand, don't get destroyed on the road trip), which isn't great. But the first half of June has a homestand against the Pirates/Cubs/Padres followed by a Twins/Royals road trip. That should be a very good stretch that gets them above .500 and hopefully builds some momentum they can maintain. That's my optimist's view at least. If they're not over .500 or something like 7 games out when mid June rolls around, then a lot of that goes out the window and I think we can start talking about trading players and all that.
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No, he hasn't been as bad as Suppan, it just gets me when I hear people talk about what a fantastic FA value he has been. He has been about what was expected (til this year), a middle of the rotation pitcher, which is not a great investment for $10M a year, particularly for a mid-market team. Strong pitching-rich farm systems generate middle of the rotation pitchers so you can better invest that $10M a year elsewhere. i don't think anyone has said he's been a "fantastic" value. I think the argument is that he was a solid #3/#4 starter and he earned his contract (for the first two years at least). That's about what veteran guys like him get paid ($8-10 million). Would it be better to have a strong farm system generating middle of the rotation pitchers and invest that $10M elsewhere? Of course, but that's not the situation the Brewers were in. Hopefully it's the situation they're in next year when Wolf's option isn't picked up and a guy like Peralta or Thornburg (both?) is in the rotation.
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pujols has been worse. so have other guys. not saying he should be hitting second, but it isn't THAT bad (yet).
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altuve hit it pretty hard as well, but i was going to make a similar post to this. Norris reached on a play rickie could have made. Lee's 4-hopper was a few inches away from being a double play. Lowrie hit the ball hard but Corey should have caught it. Wolf hasn't pitched well this year, but that was a tough inning. i guess corey earned that run back. so theres that
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There is a reason that the Brewers are leading the league in HBP this season and two of the past three, and it's not some crazy statistical fluke. They simply do not protect their hitters. Or they've got guys who hang out over the plate like Weeks who's consistently among league leaders. I don't buy the argument that other pitchers know that the Brewers won't throw at them, thereby encouraging them to retaliate and hit guys themselves. even if that was the reason...what's the big deal? keep not retaliating, i like free baserunners.
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corey at first? that's fun, worth checking it out here.
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That did it thanks! it's so awesome. it's so hard for me to decide whether to watch games on the laptop with Ueck, or through the Xbox on the big TV with no Ueck. The Xbox is usually about 2 batters behind, so I've found myself moving more and more to the laptop. Depends on if there's anything on TV I want to watch I guess.
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really? $70 million more than a very comparable (and a year younger) matt cain?? I love Greinke, think he's awesome. I would argue he's better than Cain. But there is no chance he gets $200 million. zero. I highly doubt anyone goes longer than 6 or 7 years for a pitcher, and greinke is not getting $30 million a year.
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Zack Greinke close to hiring an agent.....
ninja33 replied to miggs721's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hamilton's turns 32 next may and is going to be commanding an 8 or 9 year deal. not going to happen and no thank you. -
pretty much. i thought he was less crappy and more versatile (relative to the other bench options, not Taylor Green who I did not want up as the 24/25th man)
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i think those kind of go hand in hand.
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a bigger part of it is bunting the ball more than 6 inches away from home plate.
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I'm watching the Mets broadcast (they were talking about Braun/Das when I turned it on), and I just wanted to point out that they absolutely called Daniel Murphy going the other way vs. the shift. They said he's been hitting the ball the other way a lot, and "if they pitch him away, he's going to go the other way". I'm in favor of the shifting, but definitely seems like an example of bad scouting or some bad calls on the pitches. Maybe a combo of both.