brettac1
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Everything posted by brettac1
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I think heart has a lot to do with why Sheffield and Bonds haven't one anything. Sheffield won a World Series, though, with the Marlins in 1997. Or was it Counsell's heart that won that one for him? Take Sheffield's stats, in the first part of 1998 with Florida he only had a .892 OPS but with LA he posts a .979 OPS. Is this all statistical variation or did the fact that he wanted to be traded have something to do with his effort in Florida? It could simply be variation, since that Florida sample is only 136 AB. And if he wanted out of LA, he didn't show it with that last season and the 1.000 OPS he posted.
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Sure, that helmet is all heart! I prefer guys like Chris Stynes, though because he gets mad and sucks. That's better than a guy that just rakes and doesn't show emotion.
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I would still seem to me that he would try and put up great numbers to get his way out of town. "Neffield" may have been rushed to the big leagues, to begin with, but once he hit 24-25 he sure seemed to be a really good bet to put up amazing numbers year in and year out. His numbers are one thing, but do those numbers produce World Series titles (the ultimate goal). I think they would. They are pretty elite numbers, one player can't win a World Series. If they could, "Gary Monds" would have a bunch of them because he hasn't posted an OPS under 1.000 since 1992.
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If "Barry Neffield" also carried a .928 career OPS, you'd really have to wonder what heart would have made him. He's already a HOF-caliber player, and I'd take him on my team.
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but you don't think baseball is a team sport at all? I said "for the most part". I didn't say completely, not to argue semantics. Don't the good teams do whatever it takes to win instead of just knocking the ball around the park and raising their OPS. I don't know, that's how Boston does it. And the Yankees. I kind of like that, since OPS correlates more to winning and run scoring than anything.
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But how do you identify it and how do you correlate it's existence with winning? Baseball is for the most part an individual sport, football isn't. There are so many other tools/stats to use to evaluate a player that "intangibles" and unquantifiables should be among the last things to be considered.
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From Keith Woolner's old site: www.stathead.com/articles...r/vorp.htm Based on research I conducted and published in Baseball Prospectus 2002, replacement level is set at 80% of the positional average rate of offense for most positions (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH). Replacement level for pitchers is figured separately for starting and relieving, as detailed in BP2002: Starting pitcher replacement level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66 Relief pitcher replacement level = 1.70 * League RA - 2.27 ... Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous studies I've done, but have not published -- I may finally get around to it this year). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research).
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I think that is a great idea. If someone doesn't have a handle on what a stat is trying to describe, they could post a question in that forum rather than wasting a bunch of posts in a regular thread in the MLB forum. EDIT: Also, it would be a good place to maybe post articles/links/new thoughts that those of us who are stat-leaning individuals, where they would probably be more easily discussed, i.e. it wouldn't fall off the 1st page of topics so quickly.
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It just may be Capellan time now.
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I heart Helms? Yes, yes I do.
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I'd run Davis out for the 8th (at least to start) If you're going to pull him in the middle of the inning, you might as well pull him now and get a fresh arm in the game.
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First of all he said that the A's went on to beat the Angels and then beat S.F. in the world series. That never happened, so he lost a lot of credibility right there. His article was a spoof of the article Olney wrote on "Productive Outs", which the author links to in his article.
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I don't like the arrogance of brett or rulz and someone needs to challenge them every once in a while. I agree, like when you challenged rluz's percieved arrogance with some arrogance of your own: One other thing that we differ on, I can remember all at bats.
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The amount of times that the situation you mentioned actually occurs is so small that it is statictically irrelevant, though. More games are won with a 3-run 1st inning bomb by a power hitter than with a weak out to the 2nd baseman in the 8th inning. Emotions are usually quite easy to identify. Sure, but their minimal at best effects on games aren't.
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How can you possibly sense those things through TV? Could it possibly be that these players are simply more talented than the players they play against? The human eye lies repeatedly, while stats simply offer a record of the past.
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What I am getting at is you have no clue what stat wins game. Sure you do, runs scored and runs allowed. The way to score the most runs is a high OBP and SLG. This is a proven fact, not something that rluz made up.
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I thought they didn't keep track of productive outs? How do they rank 27th? Um, click rluz's link to see the team-by-team "Productive Outs" for last year. But if you don't want to do that, because you hate numbers so: LINK
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Yeah the Sox have a high OPS, which is always going to help, but they do the little things also which are equally important. Actually, Boston was 27th in the league last year in Productive Outs. They were 1st in runs scored and OPS. You're theory holds no water whatsoever. It's simply an opinion, while the other side has actual hard data to support the argument. Consciously you may think they actually matter, while in reality they don't.
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Buster Olney chimes in, flying in the face of BrewCityUnit's perception of the Red Sox, most stat head's dream team: But Boston plays the "Moneyball" style -- never bunt, don't take chances on the bases, sit back and let your hitters hack away and do the work regardless of the game situation, regardless of the identity of the opposing pitcher. Man, Buster Olney is an idiot. Just thought I'd add that.
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Teams like the RedSox, Cards, Braves, Twins, Angels, would have found a way to get atleast one run if not two runs last night in the 8th inning without getting a hit. Now, that wouldn't help the almighty OPS but it would help the team actually win. OPS Rankings: 1. Boston 7. St. Louis 9. Atlanta 15. Brewers 24. Angels 25. Twins I'd take the Brewer lineup over the Angels and Twins, heck the Twins are only a few games better than the Brewers this year anyway. I think it is important what you do when you make an out .730 of the time. Good teams don't make outs 73% of the time, and AVG doesn't tell you the percentage of times outs are made, OBP does. Great offenses like Boston only make outs 63% of the time.
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Slugging % is the most overrated offensive stat?
brettac1 replied to JoeH33's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
huntville's contention was a valid one, considering there are stats that quantify pitching and defensive ability. There are, however, no stats to back up your argument, bjames. You're trying to latch onto a poster, in huntsvillefan, that is trying to figure things out logically. -
Slugging % is the most overrated offensive stat?
brettac1 replied to JoeH33's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would say DIPS (basically like end said) has done a lot in terms of projecting/evaluating pitchers. Defense is definitely a work in progress, I usually use Baseball Prospectus' metrics out of personal preference. Something will hopefully come along soon that gives a better evaluation of defense than the frequently faulty human eye. -
Slugging % is the most overrated offensive stat?
brettac1 replied to JoeH33's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How so? If it is common sense, you would think there would be something behind it that proves it - this would make it "common". -
Slugging % is the most overrated offensive stat?
brettac1 replied to JoeH33's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Since you're basically asking me to prove that it does make a difference in the game how about you prove to me that it doesn't. I'm not the one with the hypothesis to prove here, you are. I'm saying that it doesn't exist because there is no evidence of it's existence. -
No I'm not, I'm making the argument that plate discipline is a "nature" trait, more than it is a "nurture" one, since there really isn't any evidence to the contrary. Like I said, show me an example of a guy who came to MLB as a undisciplined hacker (a la Bill Hall) and turned into a high-OBP patient hitter.