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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Yeah that sounds about right since they gave 18 wins but a 24% chance to make the playoffs, it probably is more like +/- 20 games. Last year's team wasn't really much different than the one that won 96 the year before and we saw a 13 game swing in wins. The 2012 team actually scored more runs, it was the pitching and most significantly the bullpen that was the difference.
  2. Ennder
    Dickey's highest ERA in the past 3 years is 3.28 so lets not call this 'one good season'. I don't know what to think of this deal because I don't have an honest opinion about any of these prospects.
  3. Ennder
    Speak for yourself. There was no reason to think we had a great bullpen last year. I didn't expect it to be epically bad or anything but it really lacked depth going into the season and there wasn't a ton of upside there either. As for the Pirates they aren't an 81 win team much less an 85 win team on paper. I think this current Brewer team is probably around an 80-82 win team which puts them on the edge of a playoff race. We still have a really good offense and a lot of potential for pitching. If the young starters produce better than I expect we can be an 85+ win team. It is unlikely we will ever have a team that projects at 90 wins, that just isn't realistic expectations. You need a team with the absolute best young talent (Rays a couple years back) or with loads and loads of established vets (like the Dodgers) to project to 90. The super early Cairo projections have the Brewers at 78 wins but making the playoffs 24% of the time. That feels about right to me. If you can get to a true talent level of 80ish wins you will find a way into the playoffs a significant portion of the time because the actual results are so high variance.
  4. Ennder
    There are 2 or at most 3 teams in baseball who project at 90 wins right now. The Brewers need to add about 4-5 wins to be serious playoff contenders when you add the 2 wild cards. These wins could be added just by young guys producing over expectations but that obviously is the riskier path. I will add this to the discussion. If we had signed Hamilton we would have not come anywhere near adding 5 wins. He is at best a 2-3 win upgrade over our worst OF, he is a downgrade to Braun and at CF over the next 3 years he is a downgrade to Gomez to be honest.
  5. Ennder
    There are 2 or at most 3 teams in baseball who project at 90 wins right now. The Brewers need to add about 4-5 wins to be serious playoff contenders when you add the 2 wild cards. These wins could be added just by young guys producing over expectations but that obviously is the riskier path.
  6. Ennder
    They have too many OF to do this but Heisey makes a nice #4.
  7. Ennder
    Lannan is not as good a pitcher as Worley and it really isn't close and certainly has less upside. I would have liked this deal if I didn't believe Adams is on the decline. He took a serious step back last year and it wasn't just a flukey ERA and at age 34 this is a pretty risky sign even at that price.
  8. Ennder
    The Dodgers said they don't plan on maintaining this type of payroll. They are spending big now while they rebuild the farm system and then will likely lower payroll. I'm guessing you wont' see anyone keep a $200M payroll long term. Why not? With their massive new TV deal, the Dodgers can cover a 200 million dollar payroll with just their local TV revenue alone. That doesn't include money from good attendance, many millions in national TV contracts, and various other revenue sources. Because of the way the luxury tax works. By the time you pass the tax for the 3rd straight year you are charged a 42.5% tax which makes the investment a bad idea. That is why the Yankees are slashing payroll. Teams like the Dodgers will likely go with 3 year windows where they break the tax for a few years and then fall under it for a year. Stan Kasten said they don't plan on staying that high and I tend to believe him.
  9. Ennder
    If you think this deal is about being a big spender it shows you are completely biased going into the discussion. There is no big spending when you talk Span or Revere.
  10. Ennder
    They didn't overpay for mediocre guys? Nowhere near all of the halfway decent pitchers have signed, this is just an overreact to the early off season spending spree post. We don't have a lot of excess prospects to trade for a big name and all signs point to not having a huge margin of budget to work with so he is going to have to wait on some bargains since the team has a few holes still. There are still a ton of FAs sitting out there.
  11. Ennder
    The A's started the year with Braden, Colon, McCarthy and knowing that Anderson would be back at some point. They had a pretty established rotation and the young guys were the fallback. Washington is a pretty good comparison before they signed Jackson which is the same type of move they made to add depth last year.
  12. Ennder
    For all the complaints about this, the Angels payroll has gone down this year and the team isn't as good as the one they ended the season with last year. I get the complaints about the Dodgers for sure since they doubled their payroll but the Angels just don't seem like a big deal.
  13. Ennder
    Pitching is less reliable, more expensive to develop and more scarce than hitting so it isn't as easy as just snapping your fingers. When you combine it with a bad defensive team in a hitters park it gets even less reliable. If you have great defense the quality of pitching means a ton less as well so for my money I'd just assume start with a base team that plays good defense and can hit and then I can fix the pitching and bullpen while spending a lot less.
  14. Ennder
    Whatever pitcher we do or don't sign will only be worth a couple wins so in the long run one pitcher should not make or break the team so a lot of this is being overstated. We aren't a last place team without another starter and we aren't suddenly a 1st place team if we sign someone like Jackson. I'd still like to sign one more guy just so we aren't in a situation where we HAVE to start young guys if they aren't producing. I prefer to have a little bit safer rotation myself. I agree that the bullpen is pretty shaky and to be fair I didn't really think it was going to be that good going into last year either. I'm fine with Axford but there just isn't much depth and that is the type of bullpen that works the best, one with a lot of depth or with a lot of raw young talent. Neither of which we have.
  15. Ennder
    The version of WAR he used is based on FIP and extremely flawed. Single season fluctuations in FB velocity are very hard to depend on. Look at Verlander who dropped 1 MPH a few years back and then gained it back again. Last year Verlander had the 2nd lowest avg velocity of his career but had arguably his best season. After about #22 on that list you get into some pretty darn shaky ground if you are being honest though brewcrewdue. I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong in that list but none of them are slam dunks over Sanchez. They all have some sort of wart that people could argue about.
  16. Ennder
    Only if you believe they are very comparable. Sanchez has a career 4.07 xFIP compared to Gallardo's 3.50, the Sierra is also 0.40 higher. Sanchez has played in a park that eats a lot of his mistakes for him which has led to comparable ERAs but the skills aren't the same. Gallardo is also 2 years younger. If Sanchez is really worth $15 a year than Gallardo is worth at least $20 a year right now.
  17. Ennder
    Gallardo would be an easy sign at that price and I agree with the guy who said he compares very favorably to Matt Cain. You have to always keep in mind Gallardo plays in a hitters park, in a hitters division with a bad defense behind him so the ERA is going to be higher than the talent.
  18. Ennder
    The Dodgers said they don't plan on maintaining this type of payroll. They are spending big now while they rebuild the farm system and then will likely lower payroll. I'm guessing you wont' see anyone keep a $200M payroll long term.
  19. Ennder
    This will bother me a lot more if the Angels or Dodgers actually make the playoffs this year. Last year 3 of the top 5 payrolls didn't make the playoffs and the 3rd lowest payroll did and the 5th lowest just barely missed out. 4 other mid range payrolls made the playoffs. People had this same reaction last year at the Pujols signing which resulted in a 3rd place finish and the Fielder signing which required a CHA meltdown just to make the playoffs. Free agency in general is a pretty cruddy way to build a team, especially the big named guys.
  20. Ennder
    Marcum is a great fit if it is for 1 year or 2 years at a low rate + incentives.
  21. Ennder
    Not to mention Frazier who had a pretty big year and is still growing.
  22. Ennder
    Not to mention they got Shaw and Albers who both have some value, especially Shaw. I'm really liking this deal for the Indians now that I've seen all the players involved.
  23. Ennder
    I stand corrected. I didn't realize Peralta and Fiers ended up so high in innings. I was thinking they were both in the 150 range and would be capped around 180. Regardless of what happens we need to be about 7 SP deep so having a couple guys in the bullpen/minors isn't a 'problem'. You just have to hope they pick the right guys.
  24. Ennder
    Dee Gordon will be out of baseball in 4 years~. He has no value. Having said that Stubbs is living off of a year where he massively overproduced and doesn't have a lot of value himself. This deal is swapping a bunch of mediocre overrated players for each other.
  25. Ennder
    Sports will move away from TV and towards the internet in the next 10 years so that will mix things up considerably. It is hard to really predict how the media market is going to work in the future.
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