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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    And I expect you to be happy with the move. But reading many sources a lot of people are buying into that 3.03 ERA as an expectation and that is not going to end well if that is your expectation. Obviously with RP you can get just about anything since the expected range of ERA for a 3.50 ERA RP over 60 innings is something like 2.50-4.50. He is a 6th/7th inning guy more than an 8th/9th guy and he is more of a matchups play. Still useful but I just hope people have realistic expectations.
  2. Ennder
    If you think this guy is a sub 3.50 ERA guy you are completely kidding yourself and deserve what you get. If you expect him to be a mediocre backend bullpen guy then yeah it is a decent move.
  3. Ennder
    The .200 point drop in OPS in the 2nd half of last year is a bit worrisome as well since Texas is a big time hitters park in the 2nd half. There are certainly reasons to worry about this particular 30+ year old player as a long term investment. They are all risky but Hamilton stands out more than most.
  4. Ennder
    Guess this is good as long as he isn't used in high leverage situations. The ERA last year was most likely a fluke, skills still point to a 3.50-3.75 ERA RP which is nothing great. Hopefully we use him properly since we never managed to use Loe properly.
  5. Ennder
    It isn't just about bad routes. He completely loses flyballs on a regular basis. He doesn't look like a CF at all when you watch him, I think expecting him to play CF would be a huge mistake. His age really doesn't matter much in that statement.
  6. Ennder
    Braun is a good enough base stealer that he can run at will off of Martin so I doubt it makes that large of a difference.
  7. Ennder
    Any time you discuss the financials of baseball it is very important to keep in mind that large market teams have to overspend for talent in baseball so the disparity is never as big as it appears to be. They also are almost always veteran heavy and veterans are almost never a good investment from a pure wins per dollar standpoint. Finally the long schedule and relatively small playoff field compared to other sports makes it look like there is less parity than their actually is. The big key right now is to get the TV revenue evened out more. The other financials aren't in a terrible spot for baseball right now after revenue sharing.
  8. Ennder
    Sure. At age 20 Griffey already looked like one of the best CF in baseball. Trout easily should have won a gold glove etc. Fielding is not generally a stat that improves with age unless a player is completely new at a position. I definitely like this move for the Nationals. They probably overproduced more than any team in baseball last year but with another year of growth from their young players and a couple moves they can actually repeat.
  9. Ennder
    This is true for sure. Martin is a below average C at stopping the run but the Pirates were just awful last year, they had to be close to historically bad when it came to C defense.
  10. Ennder
    Parra never looked close to as good as he did pre injuries. Injuries were easily his problem as they completely derailed his control. There are hundreds of pitchers like this who should have been better but got hurt a few times and just never were able to overcome it, he isn't unique in any way.
  11. Ennder
    Hanson has lost 2.5 MPH from his fastball in the past few years and obviously isn't the same guy he used to be. The Angels wanted 2 starters so they are still in on Greinke.
  12. Ennder
    Nice move by the Nationals. Harper in CF would be kind of scary, he has a rocket arm but he misplays a ton of balls.
  13. Ennder
    Glad we two cheaper and better solutions.. Not a fan of this deal at all but maybe the market is just changing in general and the cost of a win is higher than it used to be.
  14. Ennder
    To be honest I still believe in the juiced ball theory more than steroids causing those huge years. Many players said the balls felt different and I don't for one second believe everyone suddenly got off steroids after just a few years when the testing didn't come until later. I 100% believe all 3 of those guys used steroids, don't get me wrong. But I think the record years were about a lot more than just steroids.
  15. Ennder
    WAR is one of those stats you want multiple seasons before you buy into it though. Gomez has to prove he can keep producing like he did last year. I'm also always a bit leery about heavy defensive/positional WAR which is a knock on both players. I don't think this is a good deal but it isn't just awful either. It is more in the realm of an overpay with not much upside and a good bit of risk.
  16. Ennder
    Every single player who played in that era is under suspicion of steroids. Just because one guy got more publicity than another doesn't mean jack squat. Most likely there are already dozens of players who cheated and are in the HOF. The HOF voters are laughable at best so I don't expect them to look past this any time soon, just something we have to live with.
  17. Ennder
    I saw an interesting segment on mlb network today that showed that Hamilton has feasted on weak pitching over the past 3 seasons but is only marginally above average against good pitching. Just one more reason to shy away from him imo. The best player in baseball against good pitching was Beltran... Molina and Jeter were up there which fits right into the notion that those guys are 'clutch' since you usually face good pitchers in clutch situations. I wish I could find an online reference to the study.
  18. Ennder
    Not a good deal for sure but certainly better than say the Ethier deal. Upton is a 3 to 4 win player and could plausibly have upside. He actually does deserve a pretty hefty contract.
  19. Ennder
    They won't make it this year. I don't think Sosa ever makes it. If Bonds never makes it they should fire all of the voters though.
  20. Ennder
    Feldman is one of those guys who just gives up too many hard hit balls, he is basically a Dave Bush type. Wrigley is not a good fit for him. If the Padres signed him he could be a solid #3 for them, on the Cubs he is just a guy. Given the market this deal isn't bad at all, he likely will match Guthrie and it is only one year but this isn't going to do all that much for this particular Cubs roster. ERA is a team stat and it is heavily luck influenced. A pitcher can pitch exactly the same two years in a row and see his ERA jump over a full run per 9 on a regular basis. ERA is more or less worthless for evaluating a single season of a pitcher. FIP and xFIP try to neutralize this though they don't do a very good job of it. When you have multiple seasons of data you want to use all 3 stats and also keep in mind the teams defense, division and home park to try to really evaluate a player. FIP and xFIP are a guideline just like ERA is, none of them are all that valuable by themselves.
  21. Ennder
    I agree but let me point out they already made this deal, they got a very middling FA pitcher in the Santana trade. Probably a #4 at best guy.
  22. Ennder
    Escobar isn't flashy but he is a league average to slightly above average SS. Not sure why they would have trouble moving him.
  23. Ennder
    I'd rather give that deal to Guthrie than the deal we gave to Suppan so hard for me to throw any stones. I'd like it for them a heck of a lot more if it were a 2 year deal.
  24. Ennder
    Yeah I'd say we need 2 arms as well. One who is reliable and one that can be dumped or thrown in the bullpen if the young guys all happen to pan out.
  25. Ennder
    I'm not against trading for a young high upside bullpen guy who looks dominant. Perez just looks like the kind of guy people throw a bunch of money at and then regret a couple years later.
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