Ennder
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Everything posted by Ennder
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Lets look at an extreme case where you could say one team wins 70% of the time and the other 30%. With a one game playin you are looking at a 70% chance for the best team to win. In a 3 game playin it is all of 78%. The reality is usually more like 55% to 45% so to be honest the odds really don't change much at all going from a 1 game format to a 3 game. That is assuming that wins are even a good metric of 'best team' since the strength of schedule is so extremely different team to team. There is nothing wrong with the playin game.
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Cabrera did not volunteer to switch positions. He asked to switch positions repeatedly before they even got Fielder. Not a case of being a team player that people try to make it out to be.
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Most enjoyable early playoff game I've watched in a long time. Even had friends who aren't serious fans watch since the first game actually 'mattered'.
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I don't. This type of fan usually puts way too much value on things like making the playoffs, wins, errors and leading the league in stats and not nearly enough value on silly little things like say OBP or actual defense. The NL MVP is going to Posey and it is at most a minor snub to Braun and might not be the wrong pick. Cabrera will win an MVP with stats deserving of an MVP so it isn't all that awful, he just wasn't the MVP this year so it is the wrong choice. Neither one is going to have me up in arms but the AL one is pretty clearly the wrong choice, the NL one isn't.
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It isn't just about production it is about health and innings limits as well. It is really risky to go into a season with only one starter who has ever pitched a full season in the majors. Estrada has two half seasons and probably wouldn't be able to throw much more than 165 innings.
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It isn't so much about finding a platoon partner. It is about having a solid option to fill in should one be needed. Aoki and Gomez both have a huge range of plausible outcomes next year so balancing them with a RH OF capable of not being wasted in a bench role but also capable of stepping in on a regular basis if needed would be wise. I don't want to just stick some young guy in there if he would be better served playing every day in the minors.
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Ryan is a slightly above QB who won't lose the game for you and that is it. Any conversation that starts with Ryan is elite is just absurd. I'm not irate about what is going to happen with the MVP, I just disagree with it. It isn't awful just not optimal.
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Random MLB News And Discussion 2012
Ennder replied to RightFieldCoder's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nope they aren't any less value but the praise heaped on the GM and the manager are certainly less valuable. All the moneyball comments etc are just kind of silly given the reality of how this happened. This wasn't some huge coup by Beane it was probably just a flukey year by a fun franchise. -
Oh I understand why Cabrera will win the MVP, I just think the reason is stupid. Picking 3 stats that are important but not the most important and deciding that if someone leads in those 3 they are the best is just silly. No different than if the triple crown happened to be R, AVG and SB which Trout almost won. An RBI isn't any more valuable than R and if you factor in OPS then a HR isn't any more valuable than SB.
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There is no reason to start Aoki vs LHP, of course there is no reason to start Gamel vs them either. The bad break for Gamel is that the two guys he is competing with for playtime are also LH. Get a really solid RH platoon type who can play the CI and leave it at that.
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My one bit of solace is the fact that we recently got the NFL network or whatever it is called and the people on that are even more insane than those on MLB. Saying Matt Ryan is an elite QB because the Panthers have the worst DBs in football etc. I swear sports journalists have to be the dumbest collective group of professionals on earth.
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Random MLB News And Discussion 2012
Ennder replied to RightFieldCoder's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I love the results of this race and I don't want to be the debbie downer of the group but lets be realistic. Every year a couple teams win 8 to 10 more games than their talent and then every 10 years some team wins 15-20 games more than their talent and the A's are one of those two groups. To be fair the Brewers were in group A last year. This A's team easily could be under .500 next year. They are the 2005 White Sox which is a great story and really fun to follow but just gets way too much credit because people refuse to admit that even in a 162 game season the results have extreme variance. -
gotta love it, Plesac on MLB.TV... Without Fielder batting behind him there is no way Braun wins the MVP in 2011 as a statement of how Cabrera's triple crown is even more impressive.... 2012 Ryan Braun puts up the same or better numbers than 2011. Please make it stop!
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Of course it is evidence. A RH pull hitter in SD is pretty much playing a neutral park yet park factors say he is in an extreme pitchers park. It is absurd that they use park factors to try to adjust anything until they can get more accurate values. It is like using range factor or errors to judge defense. The stat is way too primitive to try to use to evaluate players.
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Park Factors are more or less completely useless so I wouldn't fret over the OPS+ values. One single number can't begin to describe how much a park helps ALL players so they are being used improperly. Trout has been as valuable as a hitter and is a much better base runner and defensive player, this isn't really a close race imo.
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I dunno, if we go into next seasons with a rotation of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Peralta and Rogers I think the GM should probably be fired instantly. That is such a potential disaster. That is one starter that you know what to expect from and 4 complete wild cards for various reasons. We have to bring in at least one starter and make one of those 5 a depth guy.
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I don't know what to expect about Fiers but he was pretty clearly tired. It isn't an excuse it is just reality. How much being tired hurt him is up for heavy debate obviously though.
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I love Sheets. Wish he could have stayed healthy for us just a little longer because I honestly believe that was a world series team if he did and Sabathia didn't have to pitch so many extra innings late in the season. I think Gallardo passes him pretty soon on the Brewers all time list though.
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Cespedes has been better than I expected and I was never as down on Beane as others were for his offseason but this season the A's had is most likely just a fluke. Every year a few playoff teams play 10 games over their head and this year it was the A's and Orioles. Last year it was teams like the Brewers and even moreso the Diamondbacks.
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Trout is the AL MVP and no the triple crown shouldn't matter. Cabrera will win it though. Braun should win the NL MVP and no the PED thing shouldn't matter and neither should falling a few games short of the playoffs. Posey will win it though. The person who should win the MVP rarely does win it. Maybe like 20% of the time or so, so it doesn't matter much.
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His UZR/150 is 2nd best out of all qualifying 3B this year so not like he would be a terrible pick. Wright should probably win it though since not only does he have more of a reputation and he makes more flashy plays which voters like.
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Which young starting pitcher are you most excited about?
Ennder replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sheets 2006 was about the same as the 2007. The only innings I 'cut out' were after the major injury. At age 26 Gallardo has a 3.62 ERA. Through age 26 Sheets had a 3.83 which is 963 innings. Sheets was in a higher scoring environment so they again are probably pretty comparable. Sheets pitched deeper into games when healthy which definitely adds some value as well. -
Which young starting pitcher are you most excited about?
Ennder replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sheets first 1428 IP were a 3.72 ERA and 115 ERA+. Gallardo's first 910 IP have been a 3.62 ERA and 113 ERA+. They have been very comparable pitchers at this point in their careers with Gallardo likely being a little bit better by experience and definitely more valuable since he is better defensively and offensively than Sheets. -
We can expect Aoki to hit for empty batting average with good but not great defense. We can hope for something more like we got from him this year but we can't just expect it. The same thing can be said for Gomez. If Hart is going to stick at 1B they need a RH CI type to add depth in the OF IMO just in case one or bother of these guys regress to expectations.
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Perhaps in the micro, where dirty pitcher faces dirty batter, then the outcome may not be reliant on PED use. But in the macro, where clean fringe guys can't make the roster because dirty fringe guys had better performance, that's a big deal for the clean guy. And if fans were lead to believe someone was clean and he wasn't, that's still the same size deal it was before. To some, it's no big deal, to others it could be. yeah that is certainly true. I was thinking more from the standpoint of how much the stats themselves matter. If 80% of players used steroids it means the stats themselves aren't all that corrupted. My guess is Gagne is full of it or the Dodgers were on the heavier end of usage and that less than 50% used so those stats are all tainted.
