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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    They would more likely go for McGehee so Coughlin doesn't have to move to 3B I'd think.
  2. Ennder
    The Brewers were 9th in the NL in xFIP. The combination of poor defense and a slight hitters park accounts for more of the bad pitching than anything else. They were a relatively average staff overall, slightly below average but not nearly as bad as people want to make them out to be.
  3. Ennder
    Oops sorry, thought they picked by position and not just OF.
  4. Ennder
    Werth plays RF. Very deserving for Gallardo especially. They mentioned on MLB network that he hit 25% of all the HRs hit by pitchers in the NL last year. Though Haren put up an OPS over .900 so wouldn't have bothered me if he had won it.
  5. Ennder
    They look at what they did the past 3 years, how the player has trended, how players their age tend to trend. More complex ones will throw in a little extra weighing based on how similar players have aged etc. Yeah educated guesses can get you pretty far but the systems are still better overall. Though I'm not sure about Bill James, his always do poorly compared to everyone else.
  6. Ennder
    Correia = Bush pretty much, though his trends look a little better.
  7. Ennder
    I'd have been fine with Washburn as a pickup last year, not sure about this year after he has taken a year off. If they were to sign him it would have to be a small contract with no promises for playtime.
  8. Ennder
    I think it makes a lot more sense to trade McGehee and sign a FA 1B than it does to move him to 1B. I think that is the major point to be made about his bat not playing at 1B. He has more value as trade bait at 3B than he would playing at 1B.
  9. Ennder
    Does it surprise anyone that someone who worked with Mike Scioscia and Joe Maddon would want to be aggressive on the basepaths? Both of those managers are known for this and it has worked pretty well for them overall.
  10. Ennder
    Yeah I'm fine with Narveson in the rotation next year given his peripherals. I just hope he is the #5 and not the #3.
  11. Ennder
    I'm just praying we don't sign Garland.
  12. Ennder
    Because he has a skillset that falls completely off the map production wise pretty easily. Negative in the field, good but not great power, ok but not good plate discipline. Add into that pretty huge LHP split last season(he had a .750 OPS vs RHP) that may or may not continue and very erratic month to month splits and I still have no clue what to expect out of McGehee next year. I wouldn't be surprised by an .850 OPS and 3 WAR but I wouldn't be surprised by a .750 OPS and below 1 WAR either. Finally he is playing 3B with what seems to be chronic knee problems so health is a real concern with him going forward.
  13. Ennder
    Well, there's that as well. I do think McGehee can continue to play well, but he's always going to have to prove himself because he was never a touted prospect. People are always going to go, "Yeah, he keeps hitting, but who is this guy again and how much longer can he keep it up?" It's kind of a shame since he's done everything someone could reasonably ask of him in the past two seasons.Nothing personal against him. There are players like this that just fade away all of the time so he really does need to prove himself at least one more year. Look at say Cantu, 2.7 WAR in 2008, 1.3 WAR in 2009 and 0 WAR in 2010. When you combine good but not great hitting with bad fielding you are going to get really mixed results.
  14. Ennder
    Montero probably is too much for Greinke. You have to consider price and service time into things. The same reason Fielder isn't going to bring back all that much in trade for just 1 year.
  15. Ennder
    It still wouldn't shock me to see McGehee put up only 1 WAR next year. I just don't trust him and I'm sure a lot of GMs wouldn't either.
  16. Ennder
    I'd be absolutely shocked if any owner let their GM make a decision like this without at least talking to them about it.
  17. Ennder
    McGehee's bat is nothing special at 1B so not sure I like the idea of moving him. I really don't to sign him past his arbitration years either. If we do go with Gamel at 3B I'd want to sign someone who can play 3B full time if needed. A Felipe Lopez or Bill Hall type of guy who can play all over if Gamel works out.
  18. Ennder
    I think you guys are really overstating the new manager new staff thing. The number one reason a new manager brings in his own guys is because most managers get fired after a bad season and a large portion of the time the coaches get fired along with him. For teams who aren't looking to do a complete rebuild type situation I don't think it is all that common for a new manager to mean all new coaches. For example 4 of the Braves coaches are staying even though they have a new manager.
  19. Ennder
    His career was pretty much defined by BABIP. He always had a 7-9% BB rate and it flucated year to year with no pattern. He always struck out about the same amount. his ISO spiked just based on how many HR he happened to hit in a given year. The only stat that really fluctuated for him was AVG. His completely unsustainable .366 BABIP led to the good AVG in 1992. Most likely he really was about a .250 hitter with no power his entire career and just got lucky with balls finding holes a couple seasons. Those types of players are heavily at the mercy of BABIP in general.
  20. Ennder
    I don't have a problem with this. If Melvin wants to show loyalty to Sveum by making sure he has a job it is fine. There is really no reason a new manager has to hire the batting coach, most of the time a large portion of the staff stays the same with a new manager anyway.
  21. Ennder
    And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career. Having said all that, 10 IP is really completely meaningless so we don't know anything about Rogers from a major league standpoint. Are you saying that Parra's career took a different turn than it would have without said hand injury? I'm saying the shoulder surgery in 2006, the broken pitching thumb in 2007, the huge innings jump in 2008, the neck injury and shoulder surgery in 2009 and then the hip injury in 2010 makes Parra a very hard player to use as an example of anything. How much of it is the injuries and how much of it is something else. It is pretty much impossible to say.
  22. Ennder
    And then he got hurt on his pitching hand and everything that happened after that is pretty moot. Parra is not a good example of how to judge a pitcher, he is an example of how injuries can really stall a career. Having said all that, 10 IP is really completely meaningless so we don't know anything about Rogers from a major league standpoint.
  23. Ennder
    Not really considering they have all new pitchers. If he had turned their old pitchers into contenders I'd have more mixed emotions. They also had a lot of luck in that staff outside of Lee.
  24. Ennder
    I judge players by the things they control. Whether their hits happen to come with RISP or not isn't one of the things they can really control. Same way that a pitcher with 200 K, 20 BB but a 4 ERA was a stud regardless of happening to end up with a mediocre ERA. I guess I judge players by the skills they showed not just the results of the skills because the results are highly random and in many cases largely out of their own control. I also think a good grading system is based on what the player did, not what you personally expected of a player. Weeks was one of the top 10 most valuable position players in the NL, not giving him at least an A- is just criminal imo.
  25. Ennder
    You're saying that everything can be found in stats. It comes off that you're implying that since you have stats, there's no additional credibility to the perspective the beat writers have by watching the players play everyday -- or no perspective to be gained that's not already evident in stats. Maybe that's not what you mean. But if it is, I simply think that's a flawed perspective.The perspective that beat writers have are so flawed that they are useless. Things like hitting with RISP are borderline random as has been proven over and over with stats. When you start judging players by things like RBI you have lost all credibility and your opinion becomes moot.
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