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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Why would we pinch hit a righty for Kendall against a righty. We still had Duffy and Counsell so it isn't like we didn't have bodies to use. Bill Hall should never face a RHP in a big situation, he is just useless. Counsell should have pinch hit there but oh well.
  2. Ennder
    For all their talk about Wandy coming out of nowhere etc, he had his breakout last year with a 3.54 ERA in 137 innings with peripherals that fully supported it, this isn't some shocking surprise (neither is Greinke for that matter).
  3. Ennder
    Dave Bush's career as a Brewer stands at: 36-31, 634.1 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. That is probably about what i would pay for considering it will be his age 30+ seasons.
  4. Ennder
    I still think the Reds are a 4th place team. Rotation is too erratic, bullpen isn't all that great. Terrible manager. Weakest lineup of the contending teams in the central.
  5. Ennder
    He certainly was when he was younger, his last couple years for the Brewers he did tend to play deep and just keep everything in front of him.
  6. Ennder
    I disagree on Parra and Looper is fine as a #4 on a playoff team. As for BABIP, it doesn't really matter if you believe in it because it has proven to be a valuable stat for predicting the future regardless of what you think. Sounds like you guys are getting hung up on the initial theory and not where the research has led the stat in the past 8 years. When a guy is sitting at something like a .240 BABIP you know that he won't keep it up because they never do. When they are sitting at a .275 or .280 then yeah they might keep it up. BABIP varies on pitch count, pitch type, GB vs FB etc so there is no magic number that every pitcher should hit. It is still too early in the season for peripherals to really tell the whole story anyway though so the BABIP part is going to really make or break the discussion. We have 3 SP that could realistically have a sub 4 ERA this year, Gallardo, Parra and Bush. We have 2 more that could plausibly be under 4.50 ERA (though I think Suppan's odds are pretty low personally). If you want to look at the negative side we have 4 pitchers who could have an ERA over 4.50 on the season as well. There is no definitive track record for these guys. Bush has seen his ERA all over the place, Parra hasn't pitched a full season yet and this is only Looper's 3rd year as a starter.
  7. Ennder
    FIP is pretty terrible for small samples, I'd at least use xFIP to get a better picture. Unless we pull a 2005 White Sox and have every pitcher on the team have a career year at the same time we won't keep this up. However if our plate patience is for real and we've found some extra OBP and if Parra/Bush both do a bit better than people expected and if the bullpen stays solid which was considered a weak point, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that we are a 90 win team instead of the 86 win team I thought we were. Our starters currently have a combined 4.00 ERA. Gallardo could be a legit sub 3.5, I could easily see Bush and Parra slightly under 4. Looper could do under 4.50, Suppan could do under 5. I can see a world where we keep up that 4 ERA this year though my money is on it going up.
  8. Ennder
    I'm gonna disagree and I hope he plays almost every game vs lefties at 2B. Good defense, adequate hitting is better than any other option we have vs LH.
  9. Ennder
    Well I didn't say the draft was his baby, I said he is a large part of the decision making process. Nothing in that post suggests he isn't, just that Jack has the final word. I feel the same way about trades of prospects btw, Melvin might ultimately pull the trigger on a trade but Jack Z is giving a lot of feedback as well and should get part of the praise/blame for a trade.
  10. Ennder
    None of the players mentioned in this thread have put up back to back full time seasons in the majors that were worth anything yet, so hard to say any of them really got away. Nelson Cruz is the closest and in his last 90 PA or so he has an OPS under .700 with a ton of strike outs and almost no walks so we'll just have to wait and see if he can make an adjustment.
  11. Ennder
    Can you prove it isn't? I've never read an interview by a GM that didn't say they had a lot of input into the drafts, especially the first few round players. They don't just let the scouting director pick all the players, they are part of the decision. An example from an interview with Billy Beane. Unless the Brewers are a very abnormal system Melvin had a good bit of input on who to take in our drafts, it is part of his job.
  12. Ennder
    I'd almost like to see Macha make Hart the full time leadoff hitter and tell him his job is to take walks. See if maybe putting him in an OBP role can teach him to stop swinging for the fences and stop swinging at so much junk. The obvious problem with that is if he fails to actually get on base it hurts the team.
  13. Ennder
    Cruz is hitting .262 with a .292 OBP and .649 OPS over his last 23 games now, 22 K, 4 BB. He is down to an .803 OPS and .322 OBP on the year now. Season is still early but maybe people won't be so upset at losing him after all.
  14. Ennder
    I'm sure DeRosa will be available but I don't think we really need to trade for him given our other options. While losing Weeks absolutely stinks I think it is probably the easiest position for us to fill with what we have on the roster already.
  15. Ennder
    Braun is a roughly average LF and he is improving. I would take his defense over Soriano's any day of the week though Soriano has a cannon for an arm that makes up for his poor fielding.
  16. Ennder
    If you are going to give credit to Jack Z you need to give it to Melvin as well, he is a big part of the decision making for who to draft.
  17. Ennder
    I would imagine Hart or Cameron lead off vs LH pitchers and Counsell vs RH.
  18. Ennder
    I don't think Escobar would outhit Counsell or McGehee so I'd probably just stick with them at 2B. If we are going to kill our defense I'd rather just do it with Gamel rather than Durham who has basically no range at all at this point.
  19. Ennder
    I don't think what we do against lefties will really matter that much since we hit them so well anyway. McGehee has a good defensive reputation so I don't think he'll hurt us. It is the plan vs RH that interests me the most.
  20. Ennder
    Nelson signed with the Mariners. http://www.mlbtraderumors...rs-sign-brad-nelson.html I couldn't link directly to the article this references for some reason.
  21. Ennder
    If the Brewers had to lose a player I think Braun, Hardy, Fielder, Gallardo, Hoffman, Cameron were all harsher losses than Weeks. It really sucks to lose him but it is an area of strength for us and probably will cost us 1-2 wins at most.
  22. Ennder
    Yep, at this point it is embarrassing how much of a hard-on other teams have for Braun. They are making up slights at every chance.
  23. Ennder
    I don't really have a problem with Counsell/McGehee at 2B at all assuming McGehee can field the position. I think the solution is someone to add to the mix part time and not anyone full time. I don't want Durham full time at 2B, I don't think you move Escobar to 2B given the fact he still isn't hitting all that much in the minors, Iribarren isn't really full time material.
  24. Ennder
    Weeks out for the season per Tom H. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/45348082.html
  25. Ennder
    I bet the lineup is going to be something like... 2B Craig Counsell SS J.J. Hardy LF Ryan Braun 1B Prince Fielder CF Mike Cameron RF Corey Hart 3B Mat Gamel C Jason Kendall RHP Braden Looper Of course I cheated since it was already posted by Tom H.
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