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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    I expect Hardy to get better again next year and Escobar to take at least 2 years in AAA before his bat is major league ready so I wouldn't trade him. I think it is a bit of a stretch to say the league has figured out Hart, he certainly does need to take more BBs though like he did in the minors. The .058 drop in BABIP had way more to do with the 2nd half OBP than a reduction in BBs. He put up an .834 OPS in august so not like he was miserable that month, the majority of the slump was his .437 OPS september and just an almost complete lack of BBs that never existed in the past for him.
  2. Ennder
    I'm not sure they have anymore major league ready trading chips to go after a CF. Holliday will likely be a 27/28 HR guy in that park but he is a good enough hitter to still put up decent numbers.
  3. Ennder
    I think Suppan was the #1 recipient of the Brewers improved defense since he puts a lot of balls in play and is a GB pitcher. Probably why is ERA was so good before he got hurt even though his K/9 and BB/9 weren't abnormal at all. Obviously the defense couldn't help with Suppan's 20 HR allowed in under 80 IP after the injury.
  4. Ennder
    Yes that is exactly the point, pitchers wins are like 75% out of their own control so are not a valuable metric. If you are really interested on how values are derived you would probably be best served by googling it and doing the research. Looking at http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/ is a good start as well. They are just advanced metrics meant to give a number to a players value compared to a replacement level player making the league minimum.
  5. Ennder
    Sabean is probably the worst GM in baseball so you never know what they'll do.
  6. Ennder
    Bush is a high variance pitcher and probably always will be so the real answer is who knows. He doesn't strike out a ton of guys, he doesn't walk a ton of guys which means he has a lot of balls put in play. He gives up a lot of extra base hits and is a flyball pitcher so he has a lot of variation in his HR/LOB%. He is also prone to the big 1st inning while he gets control of his curve. His skill is probably something like a 4.50 ERA but he is the type of guy that easily can swing from a 4 ERA to a 5 ERA year to year. That is part of why you like the high K, GB type of pitchers, if you aren't letting balls in play and you are giving up extra base hits you tend to have more control over your ERA for good or for bad. The one good skill Bush does have is just not giving away free bases as much as an average pitcher.
  7. Ennder
    They did have a number overperforming, they were not a 97 win team. They are certainly a 90 win team though and are one of the 3 best teams in the NL almost for sure. I'm not one who thinks winning the division is any different than taking the wild card so I'll always just pull for a playoff spot. I think overtaking the Cubs is less likely than other teams so I'm not all that worried about what the Cubs do. Not like me being worried about anything will change anything anyway~
  8. Ennder
    They have the best team in the division, probably aren't really losing any players and have the most money. Sure they could not win it but I don't think I'm going to be 'worried' about them adding players because our most likely path to the playoffs is the wild card anyway. I'd much rather see Peavy go to the Cubs than to a team that will probably be in the wild card hunt like the Mets or Phillies.
  9. Ennder
    But Weeks DPT and DPS stats are pretty much right in line with other 2B. He might be a little weak at them but I doubt it is anywhere near as bad as people make it out to be.
  10. Ennder
    I thought fielder looked better in the first half of 2008 but he just looked brutal in the second half.
  11. Ennder
    Couple people asked for this so I just did some quick searches on baseballreference. Below is a chart showing the number of seasons of data, the number of pitchers who averaged 200+ IP over that stretch and the number that averaged 180+ IP over that stretch (this includes the 200+ guys). 1. 34, 69 2. 21, 47 3. 21, 44 4. 21, 36 5. 16, 31 6. 16, 26 7. 13, 27 8. 9, 21 So when you sign a pitcher to a 6 year contract the odds aren't that great that he'll stay fully healthy for 6 years. Granted some retire, some haven't been in the league 6 years etc so the number is expected to be somewhat low. You only have to go up to 2 years to find less than 1 pitcher per team who averaged 200+ IP per season. 200+ IP seasons aren't anywhere near a common thing in baseball. Over that 8 season stretch there were a total of 340 seasons of 200+ IP or 42 per year, less than 1.5 pitchers per team and the trend seems to be going down not up. If you look at 180+ IP seasons there have been 562 over the past 8 seasons or 70 per season. Only a little bit over 2 pitchers per team reach 180+ any given year. Go down to 150+ and you find 774 or 97 per season, still just slightly more than 3 per team.
  12. Ennder
    Couple people asked for this so I just did some quick searches on baseballreference. Below is a chart showing the number of seasons of data, the number of pitchers who averaged 200+ IP over that stretch and the number that averaged 180+ IP over that stretch (this includes the 200+ guys). 1. 34, 69 2. 21, 47 3. 21, 44 4. 21, 36 5. 16, 31 6. 16, 26 7. 13, 27 8. 9, 21 So when you sign a pitcher to a 6 year contract the odds aren't that great that he'll stay fully healthy for 6 years. Granted some retire, some haven't been in the league 6 years etc so the number is expected to be somewhat low. You only have to go up to 2 years to find less than 1 pitcher per team who averaged 200+ IP per season. 200+ IP seasons aren't anywhere near a common thing in baseball. Over that 8 season stretch there were a total of 340 seasons of 200+ IP or 42 per year, less than 1.5 pitchers per team and the trend seems to be going down not up. If you look at 180+ IP seasons there have been 562 over the past 8 seasons or 70 per season. Only a little bit over 2 pitchers per team reach 180+ any given year. Go down to 150+ and you find 774 or 97 per season, still just slightly more than 3 per team.
  13. Ennder
    The Cubs will win the division unless they do something really odd or have massive injury issues, so I just don't worry about them. Holliday isn't an upgrade over what Ludwick gave the Cardinals last year so unless they make other moves I don't see much changing.
  14. Ennder
    I don't know about making all of their starts but when I last looked it was something like 8 pitchers in baseball have gone 200+ IP for 3 years in a row and something like 4 or 5 if you go 4 years in a row. The odds are against him staying fully healthy for the next 3 years even, much less 6 years. I generally have free time at work on Sundays so later today I can post up some numbers showing what to expect.
  15. Ennder
    You really need to look at run differentially not just RS or RA, I think I missed your point if these teams somehow prove anything. The teams that scored more than they allowed had winning records, the teams that didn't had losing records.. They all went about it in different ways, some had good pitching, mediocre hitting, some had mediocre pitching, good hitting. There is nothing in any of that which suggests that good pitching is somehow more important than good hitting.
  16. Ennder
    Well if you are looking at ERA you are talking pitching and defense as defense is a huge part of ERA. Cameron brings above average defense at a premium position. Runs allowed is probably pretty even with runs scored when it comes to deciding wins and losses though. I'd have to look at a lot more than 1 years worth of data to see just how much more important one is than another. Texas as an example allowed the most runs in the AL and still almost went .500. The Blue Jays had the least runs allowed of any AL team by a very large margin and finished only 7th in wins. The White sox were middle of the road in RA but were the 4th best wins. The Dodgers allowed the least runs of any team in the NL and only won 84 games. Florida allowed 119 more runs than the Dodgers and also had 84 wins. ERA is all around a bad stat though, it doesn't tell you anything. It doesn't tell you how good a pitcher is because it can take defense out of the equation and it assumes an error is worse than a ball you just didn't get to. If I really wanted to start to look at pitching I'd just use RA, ERA is just some silly stat that has less meaning. RA at least tells how the defense+pitching did combined.
  17. Ennder
    Top 10 teams in OPS were as follows with R/G rank in their league in parenthesis Rangers (1) Red Sox (2) Cubs (1) Tigers (4) Cardinals (4) White Sox (5) Phillies (2) Yankees (7) Indians (6) Rays (9) It is a pretty clear cut correlation with only the Twins really bucking the trend at #3 in the AL because they hit insanely well with RISP (expect the twins to regress next year btw, sorry Twin fans but that was not a playoff level team). The Mets were #3 in the NL and Orioles #8 in the AL to finish out the missing R/G ranks. Now lets look at the top 10 teams in not striking out. Mariners Blue Jays Twins Cardinals Angels Orioles Royals Yankees White Sox Braves Notice how very few of those teams were in the top run scored list up there? How about AVG Yankees Tigers Mariners Angels Rockies Red Sox Mets Dodgers Braves Phillies Again half the teams weren't in the top 10 in runs scored and the White Sox who had the lowest AVG in baseball were in the top 10! Strike outs have absolutely no correlation with runs scored, AVG has a slight correlation, SLG a bit more, OBP a bit more than SLG and OPS and stats like it have a strong correlation.
  18. Ennder
    http://masnsports.com/200...ding-yes-for-wieters.html Interesting article that suggests it wasn't health that led to the decline of the option but was in fact a lack of professionalism on Penny's part. I'm still not a big fan of Penny but he might make an interesting plan C at least.
  19. Ennder
    Well the first thing I'd say is if you already looked at OBP/OPS the number of Ks is 99% meaningless so I'm not sure why you keep bringing it up. Strike outs help drive a players OBP/SLG/OPS but by themselves they don't have any negative or positive value. A few less 'productive' outs and a few less double plays is what they tend to lead to outside of the rate stats and that mostly evens out. We've had dozens of posts showing proof of this in the past month already so not going into it again but the argument that Cameron is somehow worse because of his K rate is absurd. None of those guys you listed are FAs so I guess I fail to see the point. If we were talking about taking those guys just for next year, paying them $10M and letting them walk I would take Cameron over Ellsbury for sure, that one isn't even close. Sizemore, Hamilton, Granderson and Beltran are easy picks over Cameron. Suzuki fits our needs better but Cameron is a better player most likely. McLouth is a poor defensive CF regardless of the fact he won a GG and too much of his stats were a hot start, I think I'd rather have Cameron. When you get into the Upton, Victorino, Kemp group I don't think any of them are clearly better than Cameron but I'd probably go with them because of the youth and chance of improvement. Hunter and Cameron are pretty close to the same guy so dunno which one I'd rather have though my gut instinct would be to take Hunter.
  20. Ennder
    All of the defensive metrics except Dial's seem to think Hardy was one of the better defensive SS in baseball last year. They also all think Weeks was roughly average. The Brewers as a team were above average last year too. We'll have to see the teams repeat it to know whether it was just a flukey year or they actually all improved defensively with age (which isn't uncommon). Fielder was still terrible though of course.
  21. Ennder
    Victorino hit .293/.352/.447/.799 last year in a hitters park and was +10 plays in CF according to the fielding bible numbers Cameron hit .243/.331/.477/.808 last year in a neutral park and was +8 plays in CF which would be roughly +10 prorated for playtime. The extra OBP of Victorino and his age of course would make me rather have Victorino but the two were pretty darn close to each other. Victorino is a well above average CF as well though so not sure he is exactly the guy you want to compare to. Only a handful of CF hit better than Cameron last year and a couple of those were worse than him defensively so he does shake out in the top end at his position.
  22. Ennder
    Of course I didn't actually say that. I also didn't really remove starts from anything, I just pointed out that for the majority of the season Suppan pitched just like every other year and I don't see a real reason for him to get significantly worse next year other than being more of an injury concern now. Suppan hurt his elbow on July 6th and had a 4.30 ERA and a .799 OPS against with 53 K, 42 BB, 10 HR in 91.1 IP. From that start on he had a 5.79 ERA, .900 OPS against, 37 K, 25 BB and 20 HR in 79.1 IP. His career rates are a 4.63 ERA, .791 OPS against. I don't see why it is such a crime to assume that the injury probably played a role with things in the second half, especially given the big spike in HR which is way outside his career rates. I still don't see a reason to think he will be a 5+ ERA pitcher next year if he is healthy. Then again as someone already pointed out this thread is about Sabathia and Suppan really has little to do with Sabathia so I guess that will be my final post on the subject.
  23. Ennder
    Sure when you pull half a sentence out of my post and take it out of context it looks bad but whatever. We'll just have to agree to disagree about it which is fine. I think if you look deeper into the whys of a players statistics you get a better picture than just looking at the stats as a whole, you obviously disagree.
  24. Ennder
    Bush has gotten slightly worse every year as a Brewer so maybe losing Maddux will help. The only improvement he's had at all is in his LOB%. His K/9 has gone down each year, BB/9 up and GB% down, all negative trends.
  25. Ennder
    That is pretty interesting, we now have 3 of the 4 people who interviewed for the manager job on the coaching staff.
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