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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Actually the Cardinals offense improved in every area after they made the switch, not that it means the two were related. I dont' get why people are worried about Braun batting 4th. The entire concept of protection is overblown and teams are not going to pitch around Braun when Fielder is getting on 40% of the time in front of him and Hart is hitting behind him.
  2. Ennder
    It is at 9 PM central on Friday. Arizona doesn't do the whole clock changing thing so the game is at 7 PM for the players.
  3. Ennder
    No it is funny that people assume this. This is how I evaluate every pitcher, every single one. It isn't like I'm digging for stats to make him look bad or something. Riske was lucky last year as was Shouse as was Villanueva if you want to discuss Brewer pitchers. Pitchers do not maintain a 90% LOB, none of them do, not even the best pitchers in history do. This is not something he'll just repeat year after year. Same can be said for the HR/FB, no pitchers maintains levels that low. I don't care how "nasty" his stuff is it isn't going to happen. Now Marmol is young and maybe he'll fix his control issues and induce more ground balls next year, it is certainly possible. But his season last year has all the same red flags that Turnbow had in 2005 and unless something changes he is not going to have an ERA anywhere near that low again. In fact I would say if he just repeats last year his ERA at least doubles.
  4. Ennder
    So pitchers are going to walk Fielder because Braun is batting behind him? That makes absolutely no sense at all. I don't really believe in the traditional concept of protection but I do believe in wanting my better hitters behind the better OBP guys and Fielder will probably be the highest OBP guy on the team, especially vs righties. He needs guys who can drive him in behind him and that is Braun and Hart.
  5. Ennder
    I like Braun batting behind Fielder because I think Fielder needs the protection more than Braun does. Fielder is the only lefty in the lineup and teams are going to be approaching him as the 'one guy we don't want to beat us'. If they pitch around him and his BBs jump I want Braun and Hart behind him because the rest of the options on the backend of the lineup cannot hit righties. If Fielder sits at around a .400 OBP and I think he will against righties, Braun is going to be getting up with runners on and Hart batting behind him and he is still going to see plenty of good pitches.
  6. Ennder
    I'd say the opposite, this is where perception is a mirage. I watched him pitch too and in the second half when players got patient on him he walked a ton of guys and was in trouble quite a bit. He just happened to get out of it so the perception is he was dominant. Just like the perception on Vargas was he was 'tough with runners on' earlier in the year but he couldn't sustain it. He is always going to be at least ok because he strikes out so many guys but if they make him throw strikes he is going to give up HRs and BB guys just like Turnbow. Broxton is nasty, has good control and induces groundballs, it is a much deadlier combo.
  7. Ennder
    What is it with all these people thinking we should have picked up Podsednik, that would have been a horrible move.
  8. Ennder
    Marmol's stat line doesn't look much different than Turnbows in 05 did. Turnbow - 67.1 IP, 49 H, 64 K, 24 BB, 1.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.1 K/G, 3.4 BB/G, 88.1% LOB, 10.4% HR/FB, 3.32 xFIP Marmol - 69.1 IP, 41 H, 96 K, 35 BB, 1.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 13.1 K/G, 4.8 BB/G, 91% LOB, 4.3% HR/FB, 3.63 xFIP Marmol showed decent control in the first half of 2007 for the first time in his career. His BB/9 was a disaster in the second half. His ERA and WHIP were driven by an obscenely high LOB%, obscenely high DER(.742) and obscenely low HR/FB. None of these things are likely to repeat at the extremes of last year. Marmol is most likely going to see a 3.50+ ERA this season and it won't surprise me to see it over 4. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with poor control and as soon as people make him throw strikes his ERA is going to balloon just like it did with Turnbow in 2006/2007. So while yeah I'd rather have him than Turnbow too my point was more that he is a Turnbow type pitcher and not the next Broxton in my opinion. Most of that ERA/WHIP last year was a mirage.
  9. Ennder
    Well no I won't complain about it, but if he cannot locate his pitches he will continue to be frustrating to watch and only marginally valuable in a setup role.
  10. Ennder
    How he throws means a lot more than how many ERs he gives up. There are certainly reasons to be concerned considering he looked pretty bad after his injury last year and then had surgery in the off season. It could be something as simple as messed up mechanics or something more sinister like a loss in velocity.
  11. Ennder
    Those numbers I posted really suggest that Villanueva throws just as hard as Bush. Now that could be misleading because a lot of those were out of the bullpen which are more max effort pitches. They both average 90 MPH on their fastball. They were pulled from pitch/fx. Bush throws more fastballs than Villanueva does.
  12. Ennder
    Villanueva's average fastball was 90.11 MPH last year. Bush was 90.3 MPH. Capuano was 88.42. Now Capuano's velocity was supposedly down last year so his numbers are a little less reliable. He might be throwing less than that on average now or more, hard to say.
  13. Ennder
    I think Parra is pretty much the 3rd best starter on the team. I don't think they'll actually go with him though. While I'm not all that high on Villanueva, Bush and Capuano both struggled in the 2nd half last year and both have looked pretty miserable so far this spring. I think Villanueva should at least be in the running for the 5th starter spot. We aren't talking about guys that are so good they 'have' to be in the rotation. I just disagree that he is a clearcut step above them. If they turn it around and look good later in spring I won't lose sleep if they start over him this year.
  14. Ennder
    Someone needs to tell Capuano that he is indeed pitching for his job this spring, heh. I really want to know if the velocity is there, I know the location is pretty crappy right now.
  15. Ennder
    That of course isn't really true. From August of 2006 until his groin injury in 2007 he had 23 starts with a 4.19 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 1.06 HR/9. His career numbers are 4.39 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9. This notion that he has stunk since the all star break of 2006 is just absurd. He really had issues after the injury last year.
  16. Ennder
    I guess I'm just not sold on Villanueva just yet that I think he is one of the best 5 starters on the team. 4.2 BB/9 last year and a 47 FB% could lead to a pretty pedestrian stat line if he repeats it. His xERA was 4.50 last year and a lot of that work was in the bullpen. It was only 4.13 in the first half before he supposedly got tired. His ERA has been driven by BABIP and LOB% and that just really scares me until he proves he can do that long term because it is extremely rare for a pitcher to be able to keep up those numbers outside of a great defensive team or an extreme pitchers park. He certainly could be one of the best 5 starters, I just don't think it is a sure thing at all. Having said that Bush was really pretty bad in the 2nd half last year, his first half was luck based but the second half all of his peripherals slipped. He hasn't looked very good this spring yet so I don't think he should be handed a rotation spot either.
  17. Ennder
    I personally think Marmol = Turnbow, he had a very luck based season with terrible control in the second half last year.
  18. Ennder
    Movement doesn't excite me, control does. If he can throw strikes he'll be fine, unfortunately he has only been able to throw strikes for half a year at a time.
  19. Ennder
    Well his previous injury history has been mostly traumatic injuries, running into a guy at home plate etc. There is no reason to think he has a history of minor nagging injuries like he had last year, at least no more than any other SS. (pared back nested quote --1992)
  20. Ennder
    Part of the defensive struggles last year was Hardy during June/July as well. He played through some hip and back injuries that limited his range and really hurt his offensive numbers. I think we'll see a very big upgrade overall defensively this season.
  21. Ennder
    As happy as I am to see a divisional rival with these issues it is sad that the Reds which should be an up and coming team are going to stink because of the manager they hired.
  22. Ennder
    But again it is a tough thing to read. In 2004 his 'bad second half' was just an injury, same with 2007 in my opinion. 2006 he was good every other month, bad every other month. Is that really a pitcher who wore down or one that was inconsistent all year? His ERA by month was 2.36, 4.38, 2.57, 5.94, 2.32, 6.39 and his OPS+ against was 40, 116, 78, 153, 53, 140. 2005 he did wear down for sure, but again in that season we were starting him extra to try to get him to 20 wins which was a huge mistake by Yost(go figure). First year of pitching 200 IP and Yost decides to go out of his way to push him in September to reach some silly number of wins. I'm much more worried about his career long issue the 3rd time through the order than with the 'fading late thing' which I don't think is even really true. I think Capuano needs to win his spot still but I just think people are really misreading what type of pitcher he has been because they are looking at weird splits instead of actually looking at the body of work.
  23. Ennder
    No they aren't, but I can pull any mediocre starter out and go from a cold month through another cold month and make them look bad. My point was when he has 2/3rds of a season of good starts in the middle of the range you pulled out and obviously struggled after an injury that the numbers are misleading. Then when you dig deeper and see that a large part of the problem was BABIP (bad defense) and the bullpen letting in 64% of the runners he left on... well you get the point. You have to look deeper than just spitting out some arbitrary splits and heavily team influenced stats to judge a pitcher. (pared back long nested quote --1992)
  24. Ennder
    No it is a misuse of splits. For 22 starts between the beginning of august of 2006 and going on the DL in 2007 Capuano had an ERA right around 4 with good peripherals. So calling it a trend when there is a huge chunk of effectiveness in the middle of it is a mistake.
  25. Ennder
    I'm not sure I buy that Villanueva is anything but a 4.50 ERA pitcher, too many flyballs and too many BB's. He certainly has more upside eventually though. I think you are exaggerating calling those guys #5's especially Capuano. If you look at what Capuano did the past 2 years and before his groin injury last year he has 81 starts with 7.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 3.98 ERA. Not sure what about that screams #5 starter in your book. As usual people believe in what have you done for me lately and will judge a guy on a bad 13 starts(which followed an injury of course) instead of the previous good 81 starts.
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