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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    My biggest problem with all of this is we are paying Suppan $12M to block pitchers who are probably better than him and to stop us from even having a chance of re-signing Sheets if he stays healthy all year (I don't really want to re-sign him anyway so that is probably a plus in the long run).
  2. Ennder
    Luke232323 you have Suppan pitching on 3 days rest for his 2nd start vs SF and Villanueva pitching on 3 days rest for his start @NYM. I'm pretty sure the original chart was accurate.
  3. Ennder
    Before the start that Capuano got hurt in here was his stat line. 12 GS, 5 W, 66.1 IP, 63 H, 28 ER, 24 BB, 55 K, 6 HR, 3.80 ERA, .696 OPS against Those are very good numbers. After the injury he was. 83.2 IP, 107 H, 57 ER, 30 BB, 77 K, 14 HR, 6.13 ERA, .883 OPS against That is why I say he gets an incomplete for last year. Before his injury his stats looked a lot like they did in 2006 when he had a 4.03 ERA and 3.94 xERA. So yeah maybe ace is too strong of a word but a legit #2 starter. As for Villanueva, I just disagree. I think in a full season he'd have over a 4 ERA unless he really improves. I just don't think he can sustain the miniscule BABIP that has driven his ERA so far. Maybe he is that rare freak that can sustain a .258 BABIP but most likely that will regress to .280 or so and eventually being a flyball pitcher in miller park is going to get him in trouble. But like I said, I don't have a problem with him being in the rotation and he his young enough to fix his problems, I just think people think he has pitched better than he really has so far because of his flukey ERA. I just don't think he is a sure thing top 5 starter on this team assuming Suppan has to stay in the rotation. Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Capuano are my top 4 assuming Capuano has his velocity back. After that Parra is probably the best option but I doubt he starts in the majors so Villanueva is probably the #5 but it isn't a big gap between him and Bush.
  4. Ennder
    He was better than Vargas, he was about the same as Bush/Capuano. I know you'll say I'm 'crazy' for that opinion but I refuse to change my opinion based on a tiny sample of ERA. Capuano you can put down for an incomplete because he was an ace before his injury and a dud afterwards. Bush was about the same as Villanueva, he just had a worse ERA.
  5. Ennder
    You do not put superior talent in AAA just because you have a lot of pitchers in a win-now mode year. We have 8 possible starters yes, but that doesn't mean they are all of equal talent. Vargas is steaming filth. Bush and Cappy are both talented guys, but both have question marks. What does Villanueva have to do to prove he belongs in the damn rotation, especially when our #2 just went down with injury? No one can sell Villy to AAA. He has to BB less than 4 per 9 IP and lower his FB% from 47%. These are stats that are full of fail and pretty much assure me he wont' have a sub 4 ERA in a full year of starting. Yeah he can improve on those numbers but don't be fooled by last years ERA, he was not a great pitcher last year, he just had a decent ERA (and no those two things are not exclusive at all). When the Brewers give him his shot and he posts a 4.50 ERA I just don't want people to be surprised, because so far he has pitched like a 4.50 ERA pitcher from a pure stats standpoint. Maybe he is that unique guy who gives better ERA's than you'd expect but it isn't all that likely.
  6. Ennder
    Sorry if it sounded harsh but I feel it is the truth so I had to say it. If he is going to keep posting diggs at people who disagree with him on guys like Capuano I'm going to be very frank with my opinions.
  7. Ennder
    Your posts are negative because you are a pessimist who assumes the worst. There is no real reason to expect Capuano to be bad this year other than you being a pessimist. Why not let him pitch and see if his velocity is back after the surgery before condemning him. While I think Villanueva should probably be in the rotation he had over 4 BB/9 last year and a 47% FB. These are terrible indicators that pretty much show that the ERA was a fluke for last year at least. He is young enough to improve but there is no way you can say without a doubt he is one of the best 5 starters on the team. He certainly makes a strong case to at least make the team though, i won't disagree with that at all. As long as you rely on ERA and W's to judge a pitcher you'll probably always hate the moves the team makes because they use stats/scouting that mean a lot more to make their decisions.
  8. Ennder
    Yes he has, he has over 4 BB per 9 which is pretty bad, his FB% was 47 which is really bad and his xERA last year was 4.56. He is young though and there is time for those numbers to improve but as I said before, I'm not confident that he is better than Capuano and Bush for this year.
  9. Ennder
    There is no reason to get rid of Fielder until the last year before he goes free agent imo. The team can afford a couple contracts like that for the short term because the players are staggered a bit.
  10. Ennder
    I don't think Villanueva makes the rotation regardless. I think they go with Bush/Capauno and hope that one starts out hot and raises his trade value. I'm personally not convinced Villanueva is better than either of them in the first place so it won't bother me too much. Now if Vargas is on the team and Villanueva is in the minors, that does bother me.
  11. Ennder
    I sure hope we don't go the Marlin path because it still took a ton of luck to win those championships, they were not the better team when they won they just got hot at the right time. Yes we will have to pay our players soon but they will still be cheaper than the free agent price and still be values for marginal wins. We just aren't going to be able to throw away money on the bullpen/bench like we have been. There is a lot of money coming off the books in the next year or two so convering arbitration numbers should not be a big problem. I don't think we'll be keeping Sheets though so Parry/CV better be ready to plug those holes in the rotation.
  12. Ennder
    Yeah I think the Gallardo injury more or less solved this issue at least for the first 2-3 weeks of the season. If we still have the glut when Gallardo comes back then I don't know what will happen. Parra starting in the minors is almost a certainty unless someone gets traded or hurt.
  13. Ennder
    I don't think Sexson will come back to his previous years though, big guys like him do not age all that well and he'll be 33 this year. I think 30ish HR's in that park would be doable but I don't see 35 out of him and I think the .250-.260 AVG range is the most likely result. $14M is a lot for a 30 HR, .255 hitter with maybe a .815 OPS or so and poor defense at this point.
  14. Ennder
    I just think you are looking too much at last year for Cameron. From May 1st until the end of the year he had a .253 AVG, .341 OBP, .473 SLG, .814 OPS. This is not a guy crashing and burning with age, it is one who struggled in April with a hamstring injury and posted his career rate numbers the rest of the year. I expect a .340 OBP and .800 OPS out of him in miller park this year (just slightly below his career away splits since his home numbers have always dragged him down), if he falls under that it is age related regression but I'd be shocked if he falls to Jenkins last year numbers. There just isn't a solid reason to believe that will happen. PECOTA likes him for .269/.356/.493/.849 and that system is usually harsh on older players. I cannot overstate just how much Cameron's home ballpark has hurt him his entire career. If this guy had been in neutral or hitters parks his entire career he'd be going for more than guys like Hunter.
  15. Ennder
    I think the arbitrators made a mistake. Yes you have to project the players but the arbitration system is also there to protect the team and to keep smaller market teams competitive. If they are going to give $10M to guys with only 2 full seasons who are poor defensively and have missed time with an injury I just think it is a mistake. The $7M offer was very fair for a first year of arbitration.
  16. Ennder
    Yep, there is no way you should expect Cameron to drop to Jenkins from last year in numbers while moving out of Petco. 35 year olds generally regress but that is falling off of a cliff.
  17. Ennder
    I pretty much agree with that LUKE232323 except I don't expect a downward trend from Hardy. His horrible June/July pretty much offset his hot April/May and he produced about what I expect out of him. Maybe a tad more OBP and a tad less SLG.
  18. Ennder
    You are way underselling Cameron. He had an OBP of .352 in 2006. In 2007 he had OBP of .341 on the road and Petco hurts more than just left handed hitters overall. He had a very up and down year last year but he isn't showing signs of a complete breakdown yet where you should expect a .319 OBP out of him this year. A hamsring injury slowed him in April and a knee injury in September and yeah injuries are going to be a concern for a 35 year old CF. I still think your opinion is overly pessimistic.
  19. Ennder
    I disagree. Jenkins - 464 PA, .255/.319/.471/.790 Mench - 308 PA, .267/.305/.441/.746 Replaced with Cameron - last 3 years posted between .242-.273 AVG, .328-.342 OBP, .431-.477 SLG and .759-.819 OPS. Those numbers are all in massive pitcher parks. There is no reason to not believe that Cameron is an OBP/OPS upgrade over those two. Graffanino - 260 PA, .238/.315/.390/.705. These stats will almost certainly be replaced by better AVG/OBP. Estrada - 464 PA, .278/.296/.403/..699 replaced by Kendall - .242-.271 AVG, .301-.367 OBP, .309-.342 SLG, .610-..709 OPS. This could obviously go either way overall but it most certainly will be an OBP increase. Hall - .315 OBP last year,significantly lower than 2005/2006 so should expect improvement. Weeks obviously theoretically will be healthier now that the wrist seems fully healthy. I would be shocked if the teams OBP didn't go up barring some major injuries.
  20. Ennder
    Yes and I would evaluate durability by itself before looking at Ws at all. I'd look at things like K rate, BB rate, GB% first off. Then I'd look at factors like the leagues they played in, the parks they played in and the defense behind them to try to get a realistic judgement of how much of their talent was the environment they pitched in. Then I'd look at their health over their career. Then maybe a look at how consistent they were, were they good over the entire career or just for the peak etc. I might even look at how they did with runners, HR/FB on etc to see if they had interesting career rates for that kind of thing. Then finally after looking at all of that stuff I might throw out W's because to be honest everything I just mentioned above does a better job of judging a pitcher than an arbitrary stat like Ws which is one of the weakest stats evaluating a pitcher there is. A great pitcher on bad teams will W less than a good pitcher on amazing teams, that is the simple truth. So like I said, maybe the 10th or 11th thing I'd look at. Kind of like super bowl rings for judging a QB.
  21. Ennder
    I dunno, if you ask me to write a paper comparing two pitchers and decide which is the better guy W's are about the 10th or 11th thing I'd talk about. Yeah they are a stat but just not a big one for me. GM's do all kind of dumb things, using that as an excuse for Ws being a good stat just isn't a good argument(see Zito, Barry). I'm sure players who have won gold gloves make more each year even when they shouldn't have won them. Doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't go after a Zito, Garland type because they are a 'proven winner'. They played on good teams and got wins but the other stats are just more important for judging how good they actually are or will be in the future and that is what I'm concerned with.
  22. Ennder
    I dunno, if you ask me to write a paper comparing two pitchers and decide which is the better guy W's are about the 10th or 11th thing I'd talk about. Yeah they are a stat but just not a big one for me. GM's do all kind of dumb things, using that as an excuse for Ws being a good stat just isn't a good argument(see Zito, Barry). I'm sure players who have won gold gloves make more each year even when they shouldn't have won them. Doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't go after a Zito, Garland type because they are a 'proven winner'. They played on good teams and got wins but the other stats are just more important for judging how good they actually are or will be in the future and that is what I'm concerned with.
  23. Ennder
    I dunno, if you ask me to write a paper comparing two pitchers and decide which is the better guy W's are about the 10th or 11th thing I'd talk about. Yeah they are a stat but just not a big one for me. GM's do all kind of dumb things, using that as an excuse for Ws being a good stat just isn't a good argument(see Zito, Barry). I'm sure players who have won gold gloves make more each year even when they shouldn't have won them. Doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't go after a Zito, Garland type because they are a 'proven winner'. They played on good teams and got wins but the other stats are just more important for judging how good they actually are or will be in the future and that is what I'm concerned with.
  24. Ennder
    I dunno, if you ask me to write a paper comparing two pitchers and decide which is the better guy W's are about the 10th or 11th thing I'd talk about. Yeah they are a stat but just not a big one for me. GM's do all kind of dumb things, using that as an excuse for Ws being a good stat just isn't a good argument(see Zito, Barry). I'm sure players who have won gold gloves make more each year even when they shouldn't have won them. Doesn't make it right. I certainly wouldn't go after a Zito, Garland type because they are a 'proven winner'. They played on good teams and got wins but the other stats are just more important for judging how good they actually are or will be in the future and that is what I'm concerned with.
  25. Ennder
    Over the past 3 years Oswalt has the 2nd most wins in all of baseball and Sheets has been hurt part of all 3 years. So yeah I'm not too surprised they don't compare. Oswalt also had possibly the best defensive SS in the last 100 years playing behind him (yes many think Everett is better than Ozzie was). Oswalt is a great pitcher, that doesn't mean Sheets isn't because he cannot match a .645 W% over the last 3 years. Very few pitchers in the history of the game match that.
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