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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Tomko - 2004 - 4.04 ERA. 5.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 42% GB. xFIP 4.79. That year Tomko had a lot of luck with BABIP and HR/FB and it drove his ERA way down. Overall he pitched almost exactly like normal except some luck. Peavy - 2006 - 4.09 ERA. 9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 38% GB. xFIP 3.82. Peavy had a slightly lower GB% than normal and a little bad luck with HR's. Looking at those 2 stat lines and judging by ERA they are the same pitcher. xFIP clearly shows that Tomko wasn't nearly as good as him though and showed that if you were say handing out contracts that Tomko's 2004 was a fluke, not a new level for him. Looking at a few other stats along with xFIP would have shown even more support for Peavy not being a fluke and I drafted him fantasy without a worry in the world in 2007.
  2. Ennder
    Ok, I guess that makes a little more sense. As I said in an earlier post, I'm not sure that I understand fip completely. Every explanation of it that I heard of it up until now, pretty much stated that it takes out all fielding plays and only accounts for BBs, Ks, and HRs. Your post, if I'm understanding correctly, makes it sound like that's not the case. It isn't taking the plays out, it is assuming a completely average number of them are made. The good thing about xFIP is that it correlates well from year to year. You are basically pulling all of the luck out of ERA. The bad part is it doesn't take into account things like GB%, pitchers who have above average LOB% year after year etc. qERA is a little better version of FIP that does include GB% but I haven't found a place to get that stat on a regular basis. This entire branch of stats is relatively new and they are doing a lot of work on it but it has been shown that you can predict future success better by looking at stats like K/9 than you could by looking at ERA. ERA is extremely luck based.
  3. Ennder
    Not true at all though. Taking the most extreme example from last season Florida's defense let in 102 more runs than you would expect from an average defense. Colorado let in 58 fewer runs than an average defense. Some of those are from unearned runs but the difference between those two numbers leads to a staggering difference in team ERA. When you look at a RP's ERA the differences can be amazing. Riske threw 69 2/3 IP last season and had a 2.45 ERA giving up 19 ER's. Lets imagine he pitched for the Brewers instead and Braun and Hall each miss one big play on him resulting in just a paltry 3 extra ER's, then the bullpen comes in and allows 2 more inherited runner than the cleveland bullpen did. I mean 5 ER's is nothing right, it is really easy to see how things could be 5 ER different over 65 games pitched without Riske being at fault at all. He now has a 3.10 ERA. So how good was Riske? All it takes is 2 missed plays during the year and one RP giving up a hit after he is taken out to make his ERA jump by 0.55. How many times did the Brewers miss a play and end up extending things into a big inning, how many times did our bullpen come in and give up inherited runs. Those things add up very fast on the ERA stat and no it doesn't even out over a single season, especially not for a RP.
  4. Ennder
    Ok here is another look at the bullpen from a different angle... ZiPS projections! Gagne - 3.60 ERA Gallardo - 3.60 ERA Sheets - 3.72 ERA Riske - 3.80 ERA Torres - 3.94 ERA (pirates projection) Wise - 4.00 ERA Turnbow - 4.08 ERA ---- League Average RP ---- 4.15 ERA Shouse - 4.21 ERA Parra - 4.31 ERA Villanueva - 4.46 ERA Capuano - 4.48 ERA ---- League Average SP --- 4.55 ERA Bush - 4.64 ERA Suppan - 4.76 ERA McClung - 4.97 ERA Vargas - 4.99 ERA Mota - 5.06 ERA ZiPS likes us to have 4 above average SP and 5 above average RP's. That would be a pretty big improvement over last season and in general ZiPS is generally harsh on pitching.
  5. Ennder
    ERA just has way too much luck involved. How many balls fall for a hit, how many guys are on base when you give up a hit, how many runners your bullpen let in, mistakes made by your fielder that don't go as an error, which field you are playing in etc. ERA shows a very weak correlation from year to year so it is not a predictive stat. FIP and xFIP show stronger year to year correlations so they are more predictive. As I said in the original post though, they are flawed in their own ways and you pointed out one of them, GB%. Another flaw is that some pitchers have a sustained ability to strand more runners than normal and that doesn't show up in FIP. With 1 year of data I find ERA almost meaningless, especially for a RP.
  6. Ennder
    Yeah I prefer qERA a lot more which includes things like GB% but I couldn't find a listing for it so couldn't use it.
  7. Ennder
    Oh I have time baby! Prior - 3.56 (That was in 2005 when he was last healthy) Marmol - 3.63 Wuertz - 3.82 Howry - 4.15 Dempster - 4.15 Hill - 4.17 Marshall - 4.56 Zambrano - 4.65 Eyre - 4.92 Marquis - 4.98 We had as good of a pitching staff as the Cubs last season, I had that discussion with them on their forum. They had a much much better defense and Wrigley played as a pitchers park last year but our pitching as a whole was as good as theirs. Unfortunately that is hard to prove to the "common fan" since they just look at ERA and decide it is cut and dry based on one of the weakest stats out there. Lilly - 4.39 Wood - 4.52
  8. Ennder
    xFIP is a stat that tries to pull luck, park and fielding out of a pitchers stat line and show how good he really was. Personally I'd value it more than ERA for a single season but it is flawed in its own way and ERA is probably a better long term stat when you have 3+ years worth of data. keep in mind RP's tend to beat their xFIP's for whatever reason. Shouse - 3.66 Gallardo - 4.00 (that start in colorado really killed his stats, I expect better) Gagne - 4.19 Tex, 4.21 Bos (yes basically he was lucky in Texas and unlucky in Boston) Torres - 4.21 (yes he wasn't near as bad as that ERA suggests) Turnbow - 4.23 McClung - 4.24 (small sample) Mota - 4.32 Capauno - 4.39 (there was a lot of bad luck in his season) Bush - 4.43 Sheets - 4.49 (yes his stats were ugly last year which worries me way more than the injury issues) Riske - 4.56 (he has a long history of beating his xFIP by a lot) Parra - 4.61 Villanueva - 4.84 (way too many walks last season, this is 2nd year in a row he beat his xFIP by a lot though) Wise - 4.84 Suppan - 4.85 Vargas - 4.89 Note to self, this post scares me. When I started this my idea was to show that we pitched much better than ERA suggests but I'm not so sure that is true. I think a lot of our guys have upsides better than the xFIP. Sheets, Gallardo and Villanueva for sure do. What I do like is that most of our guys are at least in that 'average' range, there are no really ugly guys in that list.
  9. Ennder
    I'd say the first injury was probably from abuse. Here are the top PAP pitchers from 2004 Livan Hernandez - rapidly declined Jason Schmidt - Injured next season Carlos Zambrano - declined every year since Victor Zambranno - Injured Al Leiter - freak Russ Ortiz - injured Bobby Madritsch - injured Ben Sheets - injured That was also a huge jump for Sheets who was never high on the lists. He pitched so well that we pushed him deep into games on a regular basis. The 2006 injury was him coming back before he was ready. When he went out in 2005 they weren't sure if he'd be able to start the season in 2006 and he pushed it. 2007 was a finger injury, that is just something that happens to pitchers. 1 in 3 SP in baseball end up on the DL at some point every season, it is just part of pitching. When I think injury prone I think of Prior, Burnett or Harden. Guys who have repeated pitching arm related injuries. I'd even throw in a guy like Carpenter in that list given the extreme nature of his injuries. Sheets is more comperable to Beckett who missed time with more freaky injuries and was labelled injury prone before being traded to Boston... he has 404 IP over the last 2 seasons and probably should have been CY last year.
  10. Ennder
    He pitched 141 IP last year so no, 190-200 IP would be fine this season. Any time a pitcher jumps more than 50 IP I get worried about his arm and when the jump is 100 IP I get really worried. The finger injury was not related to his previous injury so that gets to finish healing and he didn't overwork himself. While I'd gladly have had him play full time last year from an outside view it probably helped him long term that he got to sit part of last year. I don't know if I want him signed to an extension or not, I'd really have to see how he does the first couple months of the season. However I don't consider Sheets injury prone either regardless of how the IP's work out. If Sheets gets hurt in april of 2005, misses the entire year, pitches all of 2006 and then misses 7 starts of 2007 with a finger injury is he still injury prone? The total games started comes out the same as what happened with him. I think the fact that one injury bridged two years gives people a warped view of his health. Now if he shows up to spring training out of shape and has problems throwing his curve, of course I don't want an extension. It is really going to depend on what happens in the first half of 2008.
  11. Ennder
    Well that is really what it comes down to, Sheets health. I'm not really worried about the inner ear thing anymore. He was a horse until 2004 when we probably abused him some since he pitched so well. He got hurt late in 2005 for the first time and didn't come back until mid 2006. His first real injury and yes I count that as one single injury. I remember going into 2006 saying I'll be happy with half a season since they weren't sure how long it would take him to recover. Last year he seemed mostly recovered from the shoulder thing and jammed his finger which can happen to any pitcher in baseball. I'm more worried by his peripherals being down last year than him being hurt... in fact if he had pitched 200 IP last season I'd be MORE worried right now because it would have put too much stress on his arm after two half seasons in a row.
  12. Ennder
    Sheets statistically is right in line with guys like Sabathia and Peavy and well if you are talking about Sabathia and staying in shape you are making a mistake. Peavy has had a lot of minor injury problems as well, it is part of being a pitcher. If Sheets goes out and pitches a full season this year he'll get a contract very close to what those guys get for sure.
  13. Ennder
    I'd say it makes the Mets look silly that they traded to get a C that probably won't play much. Then again I think Mota is a decent risk for a season and that his peripherals looked a lot better than his ERA the past couple seasons.
  14. Ennder
    I'd say the nats won this one big time.
  15. Ennder
    I don't like Figgins, when he doesn't have a .391 BABIP like last year he is a .350 OBP player with little power and poor fielding. Willits is pretty interesting though and personally I think there is a good chance that Hunter is not an upgrade for them if he is costing Willits AB's.
  16. Ennder
    I think he used 22 as an example, but yea you can add any number. If somehow you had such a high AVG that adding 100 PA's still won you the batting title that would be fien.
  17. Ennder
    Mota's stats don't look too bad unless you obsess on ERA. I'm still glad we don't have Davis, given our defense/bullpen last year I don't see how he would have been an upgrade over what we had.
  18. Ennder
    I'd just like to point out that I copy and pasted for mine and that is why my teams are all off! I nailed the team record and was pretty close on the Sox vs Sillies matchup. Pretty happy overall with my predictions other than Estrada being good~
  19. Ennder
    ERA and WHIP are heavily luck based, they vary extremely from year to year and are heavily influenced by defense. WHIP by itself is almost completely useless as a stat, but like every stat has its uses when combined with other stats. When I look at a pitcher the big things I look at are K/9, BB/9 and GB%, those stats don't vary all that much from year to year and are mostly out of the defenses control.
  20. Ennder
    i don't see how Lo Duca would be much more valuable than Estrada, just comes down to which of them is healthier any given year.
  21. Ennder
    I'd like to see those numbers run for players with a bigger sample of AB's. 250 was awfully low. actually I found it while reading up on ZiPs. Still looks like an off year for Pecota.
  22. Ennder
    http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/search?q=pecota I don't have links for the other years but I know for a fact it is 3 years in a row that PECOTA has shown the best correlation for hitting. Pitching is more of a crapshoot but they always look at ERA which is such a random stat that I wouldn't expect a strong correlation.
  23. Ennder
    Each of the past 3 years they have shown the best correlation for OPS at least and by a pretty strong margin. I haven't seen a good study done on pitching since they all focus on ERA which is the wrong stat. I spend a lot of time looking at the various projections and by far PECOTA is the most valuable for rate stats and baseballforecaster is a pretty strong one for identifying breakout players. ZiPs is just marcels with a small tweak and those are weaker for sure, especially on fringe players. I don't see anything too terrible in those projections. I think the pitcher ERA's are too good unless we move Braun or Weeks to a new position but I can't really argue with it. I expect Weeks and Hardy to be a little better than those numbers suggest but given their careers so far I can understand why they have conservative projections.
  24. Ennder
    PECOTA is the most accurate, ZiPs is generally pretty mediocre. As you would expect most of them are pretty iffy on pitching but thats because the people who compare the systems always do it wrong. ERA is a very weak stat and it is the one they usually use.
  25. Ennder
    I never have understood that argument. Having your pitcher bunt isn't strategy, its just common sense since they are so miserable at the plate. A double switch takes one of your better players out of the lineup, while that is strategy it isn't one that really makes the game more fun to watch. The only reason I could see the NL being more fun is people like to watch scrubs and roleplayers instead of starters.
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