nate82

No thanks. I would rather spend the trade capital the Brewers have on something else. To get Jansen you are looking at trading someone like Frelick or Wiemer. Also the Brewers just don't match up all that well with the Blue Jays as a trade partner. The position that the Blue Jays would be looking to get better at the Brewers only have Woodruff, Lauer, Houser and Burnes. You would have to package Houser plus a lot to get Jansen. It just would be a waste of the trade capital the Brewers have to get any of the Blue Jays catchers. It would just be best to roll with Caratini and Feliciano next year than it would be to trade for Jansen.

Another 75 BPS raise. With another 75 planned for November and a 50 in December. The rate increases look to continue through 2023.

I think it would be best to just move Yelich to DH permanently as his defense in the OF has completely collapsed this year. Renfroe is a better LF than he is a RF defensively. Renfroe has the arm to play RF but he isn't the greatest at getting to fly balls I would prefer him in LF than RF. Having Frelick/Mitchell in CF, Mitchell/Taylor in RF and then Renfroe/Mitchell/Taylor/Yelich in LF gives the Brewers the best OF defense. I don't know if the Brewers will trade one of their young OF's but it is possible. I think the more likely outcome is that they are all still with the Brewers. I think it is more likely that Taylor is traded though I don't think the Brewers will get much in return for him. I think the A's maybe a good fit for Taylor something like Hiura and Taylor for Puk and Irvin. That gives the Brewers a questionable relief pitcher in Puk and another back end of the rotation starter in Irvin. You could exchange Hiura for Small in this package but I would prefer to keep Small for a different trade or as starting pitching depth. Both Hiura and Taylor scream A's type of players to me. Taylor being someone very similar to Canha and others the A's have had in the OF recently. I think you mean Rodriguez as Henderson is the Orioles top positional prospect. Of all the trades that I have seen for Burnes I think the Orioles make the most sense as they have a lot of what I think the Brewers will want in return for Burnes. The Orioles also have a lot of free salary that they could dedicate this off season to just about anyone. For example the Orioles could extend Burnes at $30m a season and sign Judge to a $30m a season contract and pay all of the increases to the players they already have and that would still leave them about $20m short of what the Brewers payroll is this year. So the Orioles could spend another $20m in salary on other parts of their team. I believe the Orioles are going to be that mystery team this off season who will be in on someone like Judge. Everyone is predicting Mets, Yankees or Red Sox but I think the Orioles are going to be really aggressive this off season in free agency and in trades. I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles offer a trade similar to what the D-backs did with the Braves for Shelby Miller but with more prospects than MLB players (Inciarte and Blair). So something like what I proposed with Rodriguez and Holliday leading the deal. Holliday would actually be a pretty good comp with Swanson.

I think a trade of Rendon for Yelich is about as equal as it could be and I don't think the Angels would be interested in eating any of Rendon's salary or adding a prospect or two to the deal. Overall Yelich is going to cost more than Rendon when taking in his whole contract compared to Rendon. Also it would be three years early not two for the Brewers. Yelich is eligible to be a FA in 2030 and Rendon in 2027. I think at most you could get about $7-10m in salary relief from the Angels if you needed more you would have to add prospects. This would be without the Angels sending any other prospects over. I would rather live with resigning Jace and having him platoon with Urias at 3B than trading Yelich for Rendon. That wrist injury could kill all of Rendon's power and then you are back to what the Brewers have with Yelich. I still think Baltimore makes the most sense for the Brewers to make a trade with if it means trading Burnes. Rodriguez is ready to start in the majors and he profiles as a top of the rotation starter. If you could get Rodriguez, Holliday and some lower level prospects in a trade I think the Brewers have to pull the trigger on that trade. Rordiguez would be able to join the rotation in 2023 and then in 2024 if you keep Woodruff you have a rotation of Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Rodriguez and Gasser. It basically resets everything and you have a very competitive team in 2024 with the starting rotation. The Brewers would then have Holliday who looks like someone who could move really fast in the minors and be your starting SS in 2025 or 2026. The Orioles have a lot of middle infielders in Henderson, Westburg, Norby, Hernaiz, Ortiz and Prieto so losing Holliday wouldn't hurt as much. Henderson looks to be either the Orioles starting SS, 2B, or 3B of the future. I think he probably fits best at SS or 3B and I think they will have him play SS in 2023 so that may make Holliday available this offseason.

Houses in Phoenix are still selling at a premium. Even new houses in some areas are starting at $600k. The migration of people from California needs to stop already but is unlikely as a lot of jobs are moving from NY and California to Phoenix. The company I work for will be moving another group from NYC to Phoenix soon. These are also all high paying jobs in finance. Then there is the TSMC plant opening up in the next year or two. But I have heard those jobs will pay closer to Taiwan wages. Which is going to be challenging for those workers to find affordable housing in that area. Majority of the houses in that area range from $400k - 2m+.

It is mostly Germany that is in trouble. Which basically means all of western Europe because Germany is basically the biggest economy in western Europe. France is not even being impacted by the Ukraine war. Why is that? It is because France gets about 70% of its electricity from nuclear power plants compared to Germany which only gets about 13% because Germany has shut down the majority of their nuclear power plants. Germany was supposed to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by the end of this year and thankfully for Germany the Ukraine war stopped this. Not that I want to see a positive out of war but this is a positive for Germany. I believe Germany only has 3 operational nuclear plants right now but could bring a few more back online that they shutdown. Ironically Germany has started to use more coal to fuel its energy deficiency which we all know now is one of the least green friendly options. I can't believe I am going to say this but the world needs to be more like France when it comes to energy options. Right now France gets 69% from nuclear, 11% from hyrdro, 7% wind, 6% gas, 2% solar and 5% other. If the US wanted to be serious about green energy it would follow the French model which is more nuclear. The US currently sits at about 19% of its total energy from nuclear. That needs to increase to about 50-65% in the next 20-30 years. Renewables are right around where they should be. The US is already at about the same for wind and solar as France is so that goal has been reached. Hopefully our government wakes up and starts investing more into nuclear. While the US can produce enough on its own through natural gas it is time to start retiring the coal plants. If the US replaces its coal plants with nuclear plants that would get the US to about 40% nuclear. Also one nuclear plant equals about two coal plants or about 3 (1gw) sized renewable plants. Not sure why we are not making more nuclear plants as this seems to be the correct choice over green renewable plants. Environmentally in total cost to the environment nuclear is the best option.

If it is a fast charging station then 30 minutes would be about an 80%+ charge. But I highly doubt Kwik Trip installed one of those it is probably just a basic one.

The chip shortage is coming to an end by the end of the year is what they are saying. There should be new plants coming online in the next couple of years also. One day pant in Phoenix and I believe another in Texas. This should help supply a bit.

I wouldn't expect the Ukraine situation to end any time soon this could last for another year or more. Right now the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition without an end in sight at this time.

Europe sounds a bit risky to me right now but energy would be a good guess there.

Narvaez hasn't had his best year. That was clearly last year but he looks like he is starting to rebound based on his wOBA. He goes through streaks like this as all players do. It looks like he is in a valley right now and heading towards a peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes off in September to at least be MLB Average. Narvaez has been bit of an enigma this season. For awhile he looked like his normal self and then from about mid June he has been absolutely awful. It looks like he might be coming out of it but I am not sure he will. It would definitely be a boost to the offense if Narvaez can become Aug-Sept of 2021 again. That would really help the Brewers out offensively.

Narvaez hasn't had his best year. That was clearly last year but he looks like he is starting to rebound based on his wOBA. He goes through streaks like this as all players do. It looks like he is in a valley right now and heading towards a peak. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes off in September to at least be MLB Average. Narvaez has been bit of an enigma this season. For awhile he looked like his normal self and then from about mid June he has been absolutely awful. It looks like he might be coming out of it but I am not sure he will. It would definitely be a boost to the offense if Narvaez can become Aug-Sept of 2021 again. That would really help the Brewers out offensively.

He has none. You would have to trade him to a team that he would approve to be traded to. So Dodgers or maybe the Angels. You won’t get anything back other than another bad contract.

I am just guessing here but I would say well below average. I haven't found anything league wide that breaks it down like I posted previously. But just by the eye test Hiura can't hit fastballs up in the zone actually he can't hit much of anything up in the zone due to his swing. He is more likely to whiff at something at the top of the zone than anywhere else. Even if the league was at 50% Hiura would still be below average and I doubt the league as a whole is at a 50% whiff rate at the top of the strike zone it is probably closer to 35-45% than it is to 50%. This is not just fastballs that Hiura is missing at the top of the strike zone but all pitches at the top of the strike zone.

I do and Keston has exactly 1 hit in the upper half of the strike zone. That is right 1 hit so I guess that is an improvement over 0. Oh and he is still whiffing at about a 60% at the upper part of the zone? Did you even look at his upper zone swings at all? Here they are so you don't have to look for yourself apparently you just got outhustled here.....

Abreu is not leaving the White Sox the only way he is leaving is if the White Sox don't offer him a contract and then he may just retire instead of playing for another. All rumors that I have seen or heard say he wants to stay with the White Sox and the feeling is mutual with the White Sox. So Abreu is not really an option unless the Brewers want to pay him $20m+ for the next 4-years. That is basically the only way the Brewers would be able to get Abreu and even then I don't think he leaves the White Sox. I don't believe the Brewers will play in FA this off season I believe what the Brewers have now is what they will go with next season. Basically Frelick and Turang will be the additions at 2B and CF. Ruiz may serve as the 5th OF. That means Peterson, McCutchen, Wong, Narvaez and others will not be back for 2023. The best option to improve for 2024 would be to trade one or both of Burnes and Woodruff. I think the Rangers, Tigers and Orioles make the most sense here as they have the prospects to make the trade for either. I put what I thought the Orioles could give up in a package for Burnes. Both of the trades for Burnes from the Orioles would be for 2023 and beyond as they have two prospects who are ready in AAA right now. I am just not sure the Orioles make the trade as they would be gambling on competing in 2023 and 2024 in the AL East. It is possible but that is a huge gamble though the Orioles would definitely be able to extend Burnes by giving him a rather large contract to stay beyond 2024 as they basically don't have anyone on the books right now. The Orioles could add $85m and they would be at about what the Brewers are at so if they offer Burnes a 5-year $140m deal I think he accepts that as it is basically the same deal DeGrom signed in 2014. The Orioles would still have $57m left to spend on other free agents and increases to their own players. The Red Sox are also another interesting team to watch but I don't like any of their prospects in a Burnes or Woodruff trade. Lauer or Houser though some of their prospects would be good to get in a trade. The Mets would also be a team that I think sneaks in but I don't think they would give up Baty plus more for Burnes. For a Mets trade I think this makes the most sense: Brewers get: Baty (3B), Mauricio (SS), Ramirez (OF), Vientos (1B) and Ziegler (RHP). This would give the Brewers their future 3B in Baty for 2023 and a future 1B/DH in Vientos in 2024. Ramirez and Ziegler are the furthest away. With the Rangers recent shakeup in their front office I am not sure they make a trade for Burnes. If they would have given their GM another year then yes I think they definitely make the trade for Burnes or Woodruff. The Rangers really need some pitching and maybe they get desperate with how much they spent this past offseason. I am just not sure how much the Rangers can spend and I think if they do trade for either Burnes or Woodruff they will want to be able to extend them. I think Woodruff would be the cheaper option to extend and Burnes it would take a DeGrom like deal to get him to sign and you would be basically just buying out the two arbitration years and three free agent years. I think Burnes and Woodruff will definitely be the hot topic names this off season for the Brewers. If Burnes or Woodruff are not traded then I think Lauer/Houser and Adames/Renfroe are probably moved instead. I think Houser and Renfroe would be the two options the Brewers would prefer to trade as they have replacements for both in Small and Wiemer. There really isn't a replacement at 3B and if the Brewers are trading players away then free agency wouldn't be an option. Well it would be someone like Peterson being signed to platoon with Brosseau at 3B. Urias would then move to 2B and Turang takes over at SS in this scenario. The Brewers are in a difficult position this coming off season. They need to make a move and don't really have the funds to play in FA and nor should they.

Yes the Yankees and Dodgers could afford the Yelich contract but all you are getting back for Hader and Yelich is a signed baseball by a homeless guy in New York or Los Angeles. Also the Dodgers and Yankees would want the Brewers to pay for some of Yelich's contract in that trade so you are now paying Yelich to play for the Dodgers or Yankees. It would have been an absolutely horrible idea to include Yelich in a Hader trade.

Not necessarily. Depending on the return that you get for a Burnes trade like the one I proposed Rodriguez or Henderson are both in AAA and should be available for 2023 at the earliest maybe 2024 at the latest. So it wouldn't make any sense to do a complete tear down. If you are trading Burnes for players in A ball or lower then yes it would make sense to do a complete tear down but if you are trading for players in AA or AAA then no it does not make any sense at all to do a complete tear down. You can also trade pieces at a different time. If the prospects you get from a Burnes or Woodruff trade need more time then you can make another trade to get more prospects. Doing it all at once doesn't really help at all. The Brewers still have 2023 and 2024 for Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Lauer and Houser. Also Urias will only be heading into Arb-1 next year so he is here through 2025. Even if you think the prospects are not ready having these players in 2023 start the year with the Brewers isn't a bad idea. You could even keep them and roll the dice on 2024 with Woodruff/Burnes in the rotation and Adames, Urias and others on the team. It is nearly impossible to say if the Brewers will be competitive or not in 2024.

I think the Brewers will have to seriously consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff this off season. With the Brewers budget constraints I don't see how the Brewers improve the team next year over what the Brewers currently have. The Brewers will already have to depend on at least three of Feliciano, Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, Turang or Wiemer. Rookies can be a huge question mark performance wise as they adjust to MLB and as MLB adjusts to them. Not to mention that Yelich and Hiura are both huge question marks offensively. Both Hiura and Yelich are both DH only at this point right now as Yelich has completely declined in the OF. With little money to spend on a free agent I just don't see the Brewers playing all that much in free agency if they do it will probably just be bringing McCutchen back or someone like Gallo on a prove it type of a deal. I think the Brewers are going to have a hard time improving the team without trading one of Burnes or Woodruff. Yelich is unlikely to be traded and if he is you would have to bring back another bad contract like Rendon but even that would require the Angels to kick in about $30m to even out the value. If you don't want to bring in a bad contract then you will need to add Yelich to a Burnes package and then you are getting even less prospects back. You may only get back one 50FV prospect back in that deal maybe even less. The Brewers are basically stuck with Yelich right now so any trades involving him are pure fantasy at this point. The other problem is Yelich can block a trade to any team so the Brewers would have to ask Yelich on teams he would approve a trade to. This will hurt Yelich's value even more. As for Lauer and Houser you are probably looking at prospects at A ball or lower for them. I don't think you will get MLB ready pieces for them and if you do it is probably a AAAA type of a player or someone who is blocked. Lauer I believe has more value than Houser due to Houser's recent injury. I think a trade with the Rangers for the Brewers makes the most sense either Burnes, Lauer or Woodruff. Something like Lauer for Acosta would be fair right now though if Acosta continues to hit in A ball like he has he maybe worth more than what you can get back for Lauer. If you are trading Lauer or Houser then you will be relying on Small to be that #5/6 starter and if you are trading one of Burnes or Woodruff he is basically in the rotation as your #5 depending on what comes back in the Burnes or Woodruff trade(s). I still believe a soft reset is what the Brewers are going to do this off season. I am not sure that is the right answer but a full blowup isn't needed either. Frelick, Turang, Ruiz and Feliciano all should be up at some point in 2023 those are guaranteed call ups I believe. Then you have Mitchell, Wiemer and Small as strong possible callups in 2023 and then you have Gasser with a slight chance of being called up in 2023. This would then set up the Brewers rather well in 2024. I think 2023 will be a down year for the Brewers with 2024 being a rebound year. I believe the best option would be to trade Burnes this off season and try to get as many players back as possible. I think this trade works for both the Brewers and the Orioles. The Orioles need some pitching to go with their younger prospects and they could possibly extend Burnes as they don't have much in the way of payroll currently. This would be a better option than going the FA route for a pitcher. Orioles get: Burnes Brewers get: Mayo (1B), Norby (2B), Rodriguez (RHP) and Westburg (2B/SS) or Brewers get: Henderson (3B), Johnson (RHP) and Mayo (1B). The Brewers would get a top of the rotation starter who could be in the rotation in 2023 in Rodriguez. Mayo is a slugging 1B who was recently promoted to AA. Norby and Westburg are the wild cards here and both have hit better as they moved up a level. Norby is in AA and Westburg is in AAA. The second trade gives the Brewers a new starting 3B for 2023 in Henderson and then also Johnson who the Orioles received in the Mancini trade. Johnson is currently recovering from TJ surgery. I like the first trade better as it gives the Brewers more rolls at the prospect dice and more ammunition for a future trade with Norby and Westburg added to the mix. Option one gives the Brewers a rotation in 2023 of: Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Lauer and Rodriguez. Still a good rotation that should allow the Brewers to compete. The offense on the other hand will be about the same. In 2024 is where this deal shines where you have Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, Rodriguez and Gasser. Lauer and Houser would have been traded in the 2023 deadline for a prospect or two. You could even trade Woodruff and place Small as the #5 for 2024. Option two gives the Brewers a slightly better offense in 2023 though with the risk of a lot of rookies in the lineup. The 2024 season though would be a make or break year for the Brewers as Woodruff will be on his last year. Though the Brewers could trade Woodruff during the 2023 deadline and bring in more prospects. C : Caratini and Feliciano 1B: Tellez, Hiura and Brosseau 2B: Turang and Urias 3B: Henderson, Brosseau and Urias SS: Adames, Turang and Urias RF: Renfroe and Taylor CF: Frelick, Taylor and Turang LF: Yelich, Renfroe, Taylor and Frelick DH: Hiura, Tellez, Yelich and Renfroe There are some other options where the Brewers could trade both Renfroe and Adames to clear some space financially. Urias is also another possibility to be traded. Still though the Brewers best option this off season is probably to trade one of Burnes or Woodruff.

If you are trading either Woodruff or Burnes I don't believe it would be a good idea to invest much in free agency. It would just be wasted resources to invest in free agency if you are trading Woodruff or Burnes. If the Brewers keep both Woodruff and Burnes then FA is probably not something the Brewers are going to play much in maybe if they can get someone on a one or two year deal around $15m annually at most. I think Mullins and Reynolds can be crossed off the list as possible trade targets. It just doesn't make sense for the Orioles to trade Mullins unless it is in a deal for Burnes or Woodruff but then that doesn't make much sense for the Brewers. I don't believe the Pirates will trade Reynolds unless they get a Soto like return or more. I don't see any team giving the Pirates that for Reynolds so he is going to stay with the Pirates. I don't believe a single team even got farther than asking if Reynolds was available this deadline. The Pirates are just not interested in trading him unless a team severely over pays. If the Brewers go the FA route I think they go with someone like Gallo and hope for a bounce back year for him on a one or two year deal. I think that would be the only OF they would go after. At 1B/DH I think the Brewers just move Yelich to DH permanently and don't go after a FA to play there. Maybe at 1B the Brewers add someone like Mancini to platoon with Tellez. I don't believe the Brewers will spend all that much in FA this coming off season and if they do it will be maybe one or two players but that is about it. As for trades I just don't see anyone who will be available that will be a major improvement over what the Brewers already have. The only player that will be available who would be an improvement over what the Brewers have now is Ohtani and I just don't see the Angels trading him. The options are limited in the trade market. With how the Orioles have played this year I think they will be looking to add and not substract from their MLB roster so as previously pointed out Mullins is off the table. The best option this off season would be to trade Burnes or Woodruff and try to do a soft reset and bring in as much talent as possible.

The FED was slow on getting the hikes in place why wouldn't they be slow on stopping them?

No because the top of the zone he is still swinging like he has since 2019. There is no improvement for Hiura at the top of the zone he is either worse or just about the same there. He has regressed back to his 2019 norms in the lower part of the strike zone for the most part. The others you have pointed out wouldn't have an outcome on more K's. Actually a better barrel rate should lower his K's if anything. It should also improve his BA and other stats. Hiura looks to be the same hitter he was in 2019-2021 there hasn't been much of a change for Hiura. The only thing that has changed a bit are the results and that he is whiffing less in the middle part of the strike zone and the lower part of the strike zone. At the top of the strike zone he is still the same player he has always been and that is a K machine. He doesn't barrel up the ball at all in the top of the strike zone and when he does make contact it is mostly weak contact up there. Power hitters should be feasting on upper-middle pitches but Hiura is all famine.

No, I do not. Teams do make adjustments once a player proves they can hit where they are pitching them. If you look at Hiura's zone coverage in 2021 he was whiffing a lot in the middle of the zone and not so much in the bottom part of the zone. Now in 2022 Hiura is whiffing a lot less in the middle of the zone but also whiffing more in the bottom-away and bottom-inside part of the strike zone. Not that big of difference though. So teams believe they can get Hiura out in bottom-away and bottom-inside. Bottom-away for Hiura is still an out the majority if times so teams are going to try and exploit that. If the pitches misses inside the zone there then it falls into Hiura's hitting area where he is hitting the ball hard and out of the park. Take Sunday's home run as an example. The pitch was supposed to be bottom-away but the pitcher missed and the pitch was bottom-middle. Which Hiura doesn't miss many of those pitches as that is his 2nd lowest Whiff% 24%. If the pitch is located correctly it lands in an area where Hiura whiffs 38% in the zone and 57% out of the strike zone. I think teams are just going to change how they approach Hiura and start throwing more in the upper part of the strike zone instead of throwing bottom-away. The good teams are going to start pitching Hiura more in the upper part of the strike zone as they abandon the bottom portion of the strike zone to reduce mistake pitches that Hiura can hit.

Hiura hasn't really made any adjustments to his swing. He is about the same as he was in 2021 with balls in the upper part of the strike zone. Hiura basically can not hit in the upper part of the strike zone as the majority of his hits come from either middle-middle, middle-away, low-inside or low-middle. Hiura has exactly one hit in the upper part of the strike zone and that is up-away which was a single. Hiura basically has zero power and about a zero percent chance of getting a hit in the upper part of the strike zone as he whiff's at those pitches more than he does in any other spot of the strike zone. Even going all the way back to 2019 Hiura has had trouble with pitches in the upper part of the strike zone. But in 2019 he was able to get a few more hits and he wasn't whiffing at the same rate as he has been since 2021. His current season looks exactly like 2019 and 2021 in the mid to lower part of the strike zone. I don't believe there has been any improvement in Hiura at all he is still the same player he has been. Teams are still going to exploit the top of the strike zone against Hiura and even if Hiura watches the pitches go by they are still strikes. The issue with Hiura is that he can only hit in the middle to lower part of the strike zone. Hiura has a very low chance of getting a hit in the top portion of the strike zone. When teams start making the adjustment back to the upper part of the strike zone Hiura is absolutely useless as he can't hit in the upper part of the strike zone at all.

The biggest problem with Hiura is the top of the strike zone. All of Hiura's home runs have come at the bottom to the middle of the strike zone. Anything above the middle of the strike zone and Hiura has a huge hole. I expect pitchers to start pitching Hiura up in the zone where he whiffs at a 42% - 69% of the time. These are both balls in the strike zone and out of the strike zone. As can be seen in the images below pitchers are going to go back to pitching Hiura up in the strike zone and Hiura is just going to strike out. The book is out on Hiura and has been for awhile that he is unable to hit pitches up in the strike zone and will get himself out. I am not sure why teams have tried to pitch Hiura lower in the strike zone maybe these are just misses but teams should be just throwing high fastballs to Hiura and watch him strike out. The whiff% and K% out of the strike zone are as expected but the 60-100% for K% in the top part of the strike zone is extremely bad for a hitter. Hiura's Whiff% is also really bad ranging from 50-69% in the upper part of the strike zone. Teams are going to exploit this which is going to bring Hiura back to his 2021 season. Hiura has made zero improvements to the upper strike zone. This is one of the reasons why what Hiura is doing is not sustainable. Once teams start pitching Hiura up in the zone more he is an extreme liability to the offense. All from: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keston-hiura-669374?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb