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nate82

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Everything posted by nate82

  1. You are over valuing Gray by a lot. The A's will be lucky to get 1 top 100 for Gray let alone multiple top 20's in an organization. Gray has about the same value as Nelson does.
  2. I don't get to watch as many games as I used to. Most of the games I get to watch now are if they are playing a west coast team. The majority of the Brewers game I just listen to on my phone when at work.
  3. Ok, just not sure why you went from WAR to WRC+. I don't deny that Braun is still the better offensive player. That doesn't mean he'll be the better value over the rest of his contract. They are stats moving from one to the next is just the natural progression. For the Dodgers what Puig does in the future is just a bonus as they have more prospects coming up that project about as good as Puig is right now. The Dodgers are going to be more concerned about this year and next. Braun offensively right now is a better player than Puig. Could Puig be better than Braun in 2-3 years from now? Possibly but that doesn't really matter for the Dodgers as they have enough assets to off set that risk of Puig being better than Braun in 2-3 years. What the Brewers can get from the Dodgers is still questionable but I am almost certain that the Dodgers are going to want to include Puig in a trade for Braun. Puig is either going to be part of a Braun trade going to the Brewers or to a 3rd team. Puig to the Dodgers right now is more of a dead weight than an asset at this point.
  4. Puig's WRC+ 99 Braun's WRC+ 141 Puig is sitting at just about average while Braun is playing at an All Star level. So yes Puig has been awful while Braun has not been. So you used WAR to support your point, then backtracked on it and cherry picked a different stat when someone pointed out that they have the same WAR. No point still stands with the original stats I put down. The follow up is more added on. I provided two sets of stats originally to show how bad Puig is performing and provided a third set of stats to prove the point even further. There is no backtracking. Quick edit looking even further at Puig's advanced stats they are bad. wOBA of .319 ISO of .179. Do you need me to continue or would that just be more cherry picking?
  5. Puig's WRC+ 99 Braun's WRC+ 141 Puig is sitting at just about average while Braun is playing at an All Star level. So yes Puig has been awful while Braun has not been.
  6. Puig has restored a lot of his value? Puig has been down right awful so far this year. Fangraphs has Puig at a 0 WAR and Baseball Reference has him at 0.6. This is Puig's current slash line: .250 .319 .425 So how has Puig restored a lot of his value?
  7. Any trade with the Dodgers will have Puig coming back to the Brewers to make room for Braun in the OF.
  8. Pedroia won it in 07 or 08 it was after his rookie year. Also forgetting Vaughn in the 90's and I had to look it up in the 50's who won and it wasn't Williams. No one will probably guess who won it in the 50's.
  9. Majority of the #1 - 3 pitchers in baseball on average only go about 6 innings. Last year there were only two pitchers in all of MLB that averaged 7 IP and there were 0 above 7 IP and that is only if you include Kershaw who was injured last year. There were a total of 49 pitchers in MLB last year who averaged 6 or more innings. So you are looking at about 1.5 pitchers per team who make it through the 6th inning or longer. The Brewers had 1 player who consistently went 6 innings last year in Guerra and both Davies (5.83) and Nelson (5.6) were also close in going 6 innings last year. So far this year only Anderson and Garza are close to 6 IP per game started at 5.7 each. Nelson, Peralta, and Davies are all around the 5 IP mark or just above it so far this year. So the Brewers are getting through the 5th inning barely and are almost at the 6 inning average.
  10. Yes, he was ranked in the top 10 coming into this season. I think there was some talk of him going in the top 5. He has all of the makings to be an Adrian Gonzalez like player at the plate and defensively also. He also reminds me a little bit of Mark Teixeira. The reason he has dropped out of the top 100 is because of the year he has been having. He has been too patient at the plate and not aggressive enough but that can be fixed far easier than other things. He has a great awareness of the strike zone I would put him above any college hitter in terms of his plate discipline. You won't see him swinging at pitches out of the zone all that much. He has plenty of power and his approach at the plate may limit his total HR in a season as he is not a pull happy hitter he will take the ball the other way.
  11. 1.0 WAR is worth closer to $8 million. Braun would have to produce about 9 WAR between '17-'20 to justify his contract, based on the WAR measurement. I'd probably take the over on 9, but how much excess value other teams would assign his contract is a little dubious. That said, teams wouldn't be trading for 2020 Ryan Braun, they'd be trading for 2017-2018 Ryan Braun. Acccording to fangraphs, he hasn't come to close to being a 4 war player since 2012, when he was an amazing 7.3 Since then it's been 1.6, 0.8, 2.9, 3.2. So far in 2017 he is at 0.5 with a projection of 1.6. I think it's very far to say that no rival GM sees him as a 4 WAR guy and his recent visits (plural) to the training table won't help. He is now the " nagging injury guy" and that won't help his long term value. However, a WS is a game changer so a desperate LA might pull the trigger. Braun doesn't need to be a 4 WAR player to reach the value of his contract. Braun only needs to put up about 9 WAR in the next 4 season which averages out to 2.25 WAR which is very much attainable for Braun. Those projections are off and are basically taking into account the worst case scenario for Braun basically they have him only playing 100 games with a sharp decline in his offensive numbers especially when you look at his offensive WAR. Braun should put up somewhere between 13-20 offensive WAR which should raise his WAR up to around 2.5 each year. At 2.5 WAR for the next two years or better there are a lot of teams that would take that. The problem the Brewers have with trading Braun is less so his contract and more so on the limited market of where he can go. Braun is only going to accept a few trades and the teams that he would accept a trade to are down to about two teams. Simple supply and demand tells us that his value is going to be limited because of this. If Braun didn't have a no trade clause and he was available to all teams you would see a higher demand and he would have been traded last year. The only hard part of that trade then is how much the Brewers would have to eat for the last year of Braun's contract and that is probably the easiest part of the deal as it will depend on the type of prospects coming back.
  12. If the Brewers are going to draft a 1B I would rather them take Alex Toral than Pavin Smith or anyone else. The problem with Toral this year has been him not being aggressive enough as he has a great eye at the plate. Being more aggressive can be taught as he has all of the other tools to succeed in MLB. If Toral drops in this draft there are going to be a lot of teams wishing they picked him.
  13. The Packers have in fact signed Michael Clark as a UDFA. Pffft you didn't even get the 1st round pick right you have lost all credibility!
  14. High school must have been brutal for this guy.
  15. The Bucks definitely need someone that can shoot the 3 and score off the bench. I thought Vaughn could possibly do that coming into this season but he hasn't really shown all that much of an improvement since being drafted. I think Monroe is going to opt out of his contract and test free agency and I believe he will find a new home. That then makes Henson or Hawes the backup center on this team and both are worse than Monroe. Monroe is going to be the biggest sore spot for the Bucks if he leaves. In the first round of the draft hopefully the Bucks can get either Anzejs Pasecniks or Isaiah Hartenstein. With both of those picks they are going to be a project similar to how Maker and Giannis were and are. Hartenstein may not be available when the Bucks pick but Anzejs definitely will be and both feel like a Hammond's pick. I think the Bucks can get Koenig in the 2nd round or even as an undrafted rookie. Koenig would be a good get to come off the bench in terms of scoring chances but I don't think his defense is going to be all that great in the NBA. I wouldn't be surprised if Hayes gets drafted and Koenig has a better NBA career while not being drafted.
  16. So apparently a stray bullet hit someone during the game. http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2017/St-Louis-police-are-investigating-after-a-woman-attending-a-baseball-game-at-Busch-Stadium-in-St-Louis-was-struck-by-a-stray-bullet/id-ac35b7a3f79848348a0e28aec74d7eae It was a classy bullet.
  17. Was more of a general statement should have worded that better.
  18. Yes, there's a reason why we keep bringing back Dillard and Burgos and so forth. These guys aren't prospects. They are filler - and they know it. In the case of Dillard and Burgos, I think the Brewers see more long term things for them in the future. Dillard in the media realm, while I wouldn't be surprised if Burgos became a pitching coach at some point. Now, they make a couple hundred grand at Colorado Springs - work with the younger guys, become mentors - and they fill a AAA slot that we don't want to push a young guy into yet (or at all). Lopez is definitely not going to be put in Colorado Springs ever again why set someone up for failure? The only reason to send Lopez to AAA would be to have him work on his fastball location as his curveball is going to be absolutely useless in Colorado Springs. Jungmann is probably in the same boat as Lopez is but if Hader continues to struggle I wouldn't be surprised if Jungmann is moved back to Colorado Springs and Hader is moved back to AA.
  19. I wouldn't call the Braves worse than the Brewers. Both teams are about equally bad.
  20. Yes I do and you do realize that only Sale averaged 7 IP per start last year right? In 2016 there wasn't even a pitcher other than Sale that matched your qualifications as a #2. So yes your expectations of a #2 is extremely off base. Already that is false. Kershaw averaged more than 7IP a start. Maybe I should infer pitches in to the 7th inning, and not leaving 9outs for the bullpen. So only 2 pitchers in all of MLB are #2 starters? Kershaw was also injured last year and he would have finished with 32 starts at about 200 innings which would have put him under 7 IP per start. This 7 IP for a #2 is just way to high. If there are only 2 pitchers in one year that are averaging 7 IP per start so again your expectations for a #2 are extremely off base.
  21. Yes I do and you do realize that only Sale averaged 7 IP per start last year right? In 2016 there wasn't even a pitcher other than Sale that matched your qualifications as a #2. So yes your expectations of a #2 is extremely off base.
  22. Okay, so 30 starts x 7 IP/start = 210 IP in order to be a borderline #2. Seems a bit high to me. It is extremely high.
  23. If the Brewers could get Toral with their 2nd or 3rd pick that would be awesome.
  24. I actually just said they might as well let everyone go that doesn't cover NFL, that's all they cover anyway. That and politics. One of the many reasons I have stopped watching ESPN is because of the politics. If I want to watch something about politics I'll watch one of the MSM channels not a sports channel.
  25. Branyan has a bigger cult following.
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