I wanted to get this out prior to the preseason games just to get the discussion going. Obviously, players splashing or flopping on the field will effect the fringe players, but that is the fun in discussing them. 🙂
QB (2) - Love and Clifford (McGough/or waiver pickup on PS) - Easy prediction after the Packers cut Etling. I still think a vet QB would help Love more than Clifford, but it is pretty clear what is happening here.
None. Curveball option: I wonder if Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan might consider signing to the PS to act as a player/coach for Love? If either is considering coaching at the next level, but want to stay in shape for a potential QB injury opening this year, it might not be a bad option.
RB (3) - Jones and Dillon are locks.
Bubble: Goodson, Taylor, Nichols ( and others). What I want is Goodson. I think he has a lot of upside and could be a starter. Publicly, the Packers are leaning towards Taylor due to ST. Still Taylor to the PS makes more sense since no one is going to claim him (and we can still promote him to the gameday roster). Goodson might get nabbed on waivers.
WR (5) - Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Toure are locks
Bubble: Melton, Heath and Dubose (some others more remotely). Seems like they have a bunch of WRs with similar upside on the bubble (though dissimilar skillsets). With the expected higher usage of TEs and RBs, I tend to think we keep 5 and work with whomever isn't claimed of the three on the PS.
TE (4) - Musgrave, Kraft, Davis, Deguara - Another spot that is pretty clear. Davis sticks around because he knows how to block and for ST. Thus no one is really on the bubble, so I think this only changes via injury or a waiver claim opportunity.
Bubble: None.
OL (10) - Bahk, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Newman - First 6 are easy. I begrudgingly add Newman as a lock due to lack of competition at G, but he still doesn't look like he improved since his rookie year.
Hansen, Rhyan, Jones, Walker, Tenuta (and others) - I tend to think Ryan, Jones and Walker win out the last three spots. I'm personally hoping Tom takes the starting C spot. But even if he doesn't, I'm guessing he is the top backup. Hansen has not improved the last couple years. I'm hoping there is a UDFA C/G that shows some upside to stow on the PS.
DL (6): Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Brooks, and Wooden are locks
Bubble: Ford and Slayton (and misc others). Ford is the most likely, but Slayton splashed in pre-season last year. Ford is probably competing against other positions (i.e. OLB or S) for his spot. Time to show if he can hold the middle as his best trait is being a large person and they don't make many of them that big. I predict Ford makes it due to lack of experience on the line.
OLB (5): Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare are the locks here. I know, I know... I didn't list Preston Smith. I'm going to be controversial here.
Bubble: P-Smith, Cox, Hollins - Hollins most likely makes it for intangibles (i.e. leadership), but low upside as a player. Cox has the upside of a starter. Smith: strike one = Gary returning; strike two = age and contract status of a FA next year. If LVN, Cox, and Hollins all look good in preseason, I think it will be strike 3 and I'd explore what we could get for him in a trade. I predict Cox and Hollins make it.
ILB (5): Campbell, Walker, McDuffie are the locks. Pretty easy.
Bubble: Carpenter and Wilson are on the bubble. Both TC and Wilson are special teams guys. Carpenter has more upside and raw potential. ILB is a good spot for ST experts so might as well keep both.
CB (5): Alexander, Douglas, Stokes, Nixon - Again, pretty easy. Only question is if Stokes is healthy.
Bubble: Valentine, Ballentine, Gaines - Gaines seems to have some play as a slot CB, but otherwise a S. If Stokes is healthy, I see Valentine making it alone. If not, V and B (alentine) both make it. Several others will be on the PS no doubt.
S (5): Savage - I'll explain why I have so few locks, but Savage is the only one not really questioned as a starter (sadly).
Ford, Moore, Owens, Johnson, Leavitt - The easy button is to simply take all three of Ford, Moore, and Owens at safety plus Leavitt for ST. But I'm guessing that whomever ends up at the #4 safety (of Ford, Moore, and Owens) would prefer to play elsewhere. And personally, I wasn't impressed by Leavitt at all... But since the Packers seem to like him, Savage, two of Ford/Moore/Owens, Johnson and Leavitt is how I see it.
ST (3): Orzech, Carlson - Despite all the print on his TC stats, Carlson has really only had one bad day and has been good otherwise; including a nice job at Family night with a large crowd and bright lights. They paid for Orzech... it is his to lose.
O'Donnell vs Whelan - Interesting and unexpected development. Seems like the rookie has a leg, so the question is if he can hold for kicks. If someone's punter goes down in TC, don't be surprised to see O'Donnell traded (or perhaps even cut) to save the $1.5M cap hit. The rookie's leg might be worth developing regardless.
Prediction: 24 offensive players, 26 defensive players and 3 ST.
Especially this year, I have a tendency to prioritize upside and starters over ST. The team obviously likes their ST players, but if we think this is a reboot year, it might be work developing talent instead. Though I was able to keep Wilson and Leavitt and justify losing Taylor (to the PS again) while keeping some upside guys in Johnson, Jonathan Ford, Cox, and Carpenter.
What happens as WR might impact what we can keep at DL, OLB, ILB, and S however. If someone on the bubble really starts to stand out, that might challenge the offensive/defensive numbers.