CheezWizHed

FYI, I just waited a little bit before saving and it automatically got the picture.

QB - Rodgers, Love, Etling - I'm guessing only one of Rodgers/Love will survive this offseason. I could see a mid-round selection happening in that case. RB - Jones, Dillon, Goodson, Taylor. Jones is the playmaker. Dillon is a starting caliber RB, but not overly dangerous. Group is solid as a whole. There is a short term risk that Jones is cut for salary cap reasons and longer term risk in his health. If cut, a higher playmaker pick could be necessary. If not, a lower level development RB would be good. WR - Doubs, Watson, Toure, *Others. Cobb and Lazard are FAs. I can see Lazard coming back as he is more valuable to us than to other teams. I'm guessing Cobb is gone. There is good upside in what we have but also risk. We also have zero depth (*not even worth mentioning the various players we churned through on the PS). Using our 1st round pick wouldn't be surprising based on need...except we normally don't. TE - Deguara, *Others. Tonyan, Lewis, and Davis are all FAs. I think Tonyan is going to be a hot commodity as an upside TE (got better the further into his recovery). If Rodgers is here, I see Mercedes coming back otherwise retired. Davis could probably return, but is that good? Pretty bad situation as high draft capitol often doesn't produce year 1. But still need to invest here. OL - Bakh, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Newman, Jones, Tenuta, Walker, Rhyan, Nijman* - Pretty solid starting 5. Myers plateaued, but still ok. Runyan showed some limitations and could be a target for upgrade. Might need more G depth, but honestly we are pretty solid at T depth. Assuming Bakh stays, I'd be ok standing pat here (but 4th round T/Gs are so good to us...). Nijman is an RFA, but after losing his spot to Tom, will we offer? DL - Clark, TJ Slaton, Wyatt, Chris Slayton, Ford - Decent starting 3. Development depth. Could use a vet backup in case our development players flat-line. Or maybe a mid-round DL. OLB - Gary*, Smith, Enagbare, Garvin - Gary will be out for a while and possibly not overly impactful on early returns. Smith and Enagbare brought pressure, but few sacks in his absence. Hollins was decent as a backup and could return. Using our top pick (#15 ) wouldn't shock me here. ILB - Campbell, Walker, McDuffie. - Actually the best ILB depth we have had in a long time. Barnes was almost a luxury (and as a FA will most likely leave). Grab another mid-late pick with a UDFA or two and we are probably set here. CB - Alexander, Douglas, Stokes, SJC - I wouldn't be opposed to moving Douglas to safety, but he was much better at outside CB than in the slot. Will be interesting to see what they do next year with the first 3. Hopefully Nixon returns. Was surprisingly good as a slot CB and returner. Seems to be more vision on returns than pure speed. If Douglas goes to safety, I see a higher pick at CB necessary. S - Savage, Carpenter, Gaines. In the first half of the season, the thought of these three being our only safeties was terrifying. Gaines proved to have some value in play and Savage did make improvements in the second half. But still this is a glaring hole. Bringing back Ford shouldn't be too hard. But a high draft pick here is probable unless Douglas moves over. ST - Coco, O'Donnell - Will this be the year Crosby hangs it up? I think we could bring him back cheaply. Accuracy is still good, distance is ok, but waning. Coco was a forgotten man, which is ideal for the LS. O'Donnell had a good year. I could see a 6th/7th round draft pick at K if Crosby retires. 1st-3rd round pick priorities: OLB, WR, TE, S/CB 4th-7th round pick priorities: DL, RB, QB, CB/S, K

With Clark, Wyatt, and TJ Slaton, I'd say our starting DL is pretty solid. We also have Ford and Chris Slayton as development players. A vet FA like Reed or a lower (4th/5th) round draft pick with an UDFA or two is probably all we need.

On an unrelated note, I've hired Boras to be my agent as a forum moderator...

Seems like he has been passed by 5 or 6 people for our MLB rotation. (Burnes, Woody, Freddie, Lauer, and Ashby) I'm a bit concerned that the lack of a defensive shift will impact him more than other SPs (being a groundball pitcher) and given age, I think it is best we cash in on him with a trade and sell high. But I think it is most likely he is in the BP for us next year.

Not being a salary cap expert (nor even playing one on TV...), I tend to defer to spotrac because they seem to have it right more often than other sources.... From what I've read and understand, this wasn't a simple contract with a big signing bonus and small salaries. It had a bonus, but also has yearly options. The options are guaranteed, so you cut him, all of that accelerates to the cap now. Hence the big $68M cap hit. If he retires, he forfeits the future options, so the hit isn't as big. Same if he is traded, someone else pays those options. I've not tried to make the numbers work perfectly, but that is how I understand why spotrac is listing it that way. Edit - Spotrac does explain it: So if he is cut, the 2023 option becomes a $58.3M cap hit. And I surmise that if he retires, he doesn't get the option paid out. If he is traded, the other team pays the option.

A couple years back, I did a pretty detailed analysis of QBs that won the SB (back to 2000). The elevator summary is this: Super Bowls are won 70-75% of the time by HOF level QBs (no, I don't think Eli is HOF level, but he most likely will get in). The QBs that lose the SB are about 50% of the time HOF level QBs. Nearly all the QBs that won the SB that wasn't HOF level, the team defense was top 5 (and often #1). I think Foles and the Eagles might be the only exception, but he played lights out in the playoffs and wasn't the reason they got there. So a bit of anomaly there.

Unfortunately, they don't specify the retirement cap hit, but I think it was on par with a trade (reading somewhere else, sometime else...don't have link now).

FYI, Spotrac.com makes it really easy to see cap impacts for cutting players. Then once you've pulled up Aaron's contract, hit the little red "x" on the right side of the year of interest. Here you can see that trading Rodgers before 6/1 means we have -$8.7M savings (i.e. negative savings meaning costing us more) than if we were simply to play for us. More, yes, but not unmanageable (probably need someone else to go also). There have been lots of numbers thrown around about cap hit, and often it has been wrong... hope this helps. Basically, the only real option off the table is if he is released... which amounts to a $68M cap hit.

RB is a sneaky need. Even if Jones stays, he has been beat up a lot. If this is an RB that is a major pass catch as well as runner, I don't see an issue with using a 1st round pick. There are general rules of thumb that RBs, S, TE, and MLB aren't good 1st round picks. Generally this is true... but it is also typical that special players at those positions are HUGE difference makers for teams. So if you grab one of them in the first round, you better be sure they are one of the special ones. But boy oh boy if you get one of the special ones. Their rarity makes it hard for other teams to match up with. (e.g. Kelce is the most important weapon Mahome has had). But we also have a LOT of needs: Safety - Amos is probably gone as a FA and starting falling off. Ford and Savage (though improved) don't make a great starting duo. TE - We have Deguara under contract next year. Big Bob could (and should) come back - maybe a one year prove it deal. Marcedes might come back if Rodgers does. But really need some young, talented blood here. WR - Still need to grab another one in the top 3 picks, IMO. OLB - Engebare has been a great pickup. But with Gary out most of the year and P-Smith getting older the more expensive... we could use more here (always need more pass rush). RB - If Jones stays, great time to invest in the next 4th/5th round RB. Or if Jones is cut, then that escalates. OL - 4th rounders are very, very good to us.

First half of the year, it was terrible. Second half was actually fairly sound. If the defense played that well all year long, we are in the playoffs. I noted the 2-5-4 alignment in the Miami game and it really improved the 2nd half defense. IMO, it is a good balance when there are equal chances to run or pass on that particular play. Don't let them run easily (that nickel or dime would do), but cover the pass better than 3-4-4 and be more unpredictable (especially when we lost Gary and had to blitz more). Today's football is barely about stopping the run. The NFL is pass orientated and our defense should reflect that. You can't let people run right through you, but if you prevent any big runs and can stop the pass, that is probably about the best you can expect. Detroit's defense Sunday was probably a good example of that. We got yards in the run, but not enough to keep ramming it down Detroit's throat. But every time we tried to go deep, we were covered or picked. FYI, Raji was an NT in a 3-4 defense. There is a reason Kenny Clark makes the ProBowl. Counting stats isn't it. He impacts the defense, but you have to watch the film to see it, not look at a box score. TJ Slaton isn't a stud, but he is improving and worth starting next year. Wyatt, Slaton, Clark as our starting D-line is a better than we've had in a long while.

Given how other bowls have gone this year (and my general lack of interest in the championship games), how were the final 4 teams impacted by the large numbers of player transfers and/or NFL draft prep defections? I've always thought that the month long gap between the end of the football and the bowl season was bad for the quality of the teams, but that has to be exacerbated by suddenly losing key players.

So maybe we just hope that "yourout" doesn't watch anymore Bucks BB! ?

*Pending Physical... So a one year deal with the Brewers is still the most likely outcome here?

Mainly when they aren't jokes...

And along with that... Using the Sarcasm (i.e. blue) font and emojis in your text when you are sarcastic and/or joking goes a LONG way to helping people not take a joke the wrong way.

Yes, totally agree with this. He responded well and frankly, I could tell he was mad at himself in the tunnel and not mad at the ref. FYI, "emotional intelligence" is simply a measure of how people understand their actions/emotions and their effect on other people. It ties heavily into the ability to control your emotions. It is a common business topic and as a manager, I've had several classes about it. Not saying that you (FTC or anyone else) doesn't know this... I know it isn't a term used here often (ever?), so I thought I define it just in case.

Did anyone else get a weird vibe about Doubs lately? For one, he barely played against both the Vikings and Lions. Seeing Toure over Doubs was a bit of a red flag. The one target he got against the Lions was a pretty difficult catch and got a major grumpy man glare from Rodgers. (Yes, it was a beautiful throw that hit him in the hands, but if the DB has his eyes completely blocked, how does he see it to catch it?).

My sense of geography would be twitching if the Cardinals were in the "Great Lakes East" over the Brewers, Cubs, and White Sox. And conversely, the same "Gateway to the West" not included in the MidWest division. ?

Now for something completely different. Forget about long standing rivalries (they still exist), but embrace the YouTube generation always looking to the new.... Shuffle the divisions every year! No, that wouldn't reduce the travel costs, but it heighten interest every year as you wouldn't have the same primary divisional competition each year. Maybe one year you are in with the NYY and the next with TB... As a professional sports organization, it would also be a first!

Remember the debate is great! We are here to discuss and debate what our teams should do. But a couple pointers: Disagree with someone's ideas with supporting arguments and not just an insult. If you aren't furthering the discussion, there probably isn't a point to posting it: Good: I disagree because he provides value against.... Bad: That idea is dumb. Good: I don't find as much value in metric <ABC> because I prefer metric <XYZ> Bad: You keep bringing up that same dumb argument. Good: We've both posted the reasons why we think a certain way and we don't agree. We will agree to disagree. Bad: Even though I've posted this 10 times, I'm going to post it again in CAPs until you agree with me! The flip side of this is that if someone doesn't like your post or has other ideas, that is OK. That is debate. Some reported posts where simply because someone thought their idea wasn't good. No attacks on individuals or people groups. Period. End of argument: You are stupid You always post dumb thoughts I can't stand how you... Your momma... All the <group> are just trying to... It is always good to know that in a forum like this, there will always be people trying to stir up trouble. Like in real life, it is best to simply report the post, ignore the person and deal with those that are serious about good sports discussion and debate.

Agreed. He wasn't baiting Walker or anything silly like that. He was telling an opposing team player to back away. It isn't like the trainer knew Walker was a friend of Swift...but even if he did, Walker has no business being in an injury huddle like that. Walker clearly has some emotional intelligence issues and I hope the team works with him this offseason to get his hot-headedness under control. Now that it is on tape twice this year, I guarantee that other teams will be baiting him next year.

Well anyone that throws it against the wall after adding the sauce probably is a psychopath. The rest of us just do it to test if the noodles are done boiling before the sauce. ?

Not really. I liked Moose a few years back, but if he can't hit in the Great American Bandbox, I think he is done.

I think if we signed a FA that could play 3B, hit 750 OPS (or 110 OPS+) and good defense, there would be much rejoicing. There aren't too many 3B that do better than that in the league. Yet we have that in Urias and people want to see more? Signing him to an extension is risky...all of them are. But once you "see more" the price is out of our range. Sometimes the grass is not always greener.