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CheezWizHed

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Everything posted by CheezWizHed

  1. CheezWizHed
    Maybe we should extend it to 30 or 40 this time?
  2. CheezWizHed
    All games against the Cubs are important regardless of the situation. Play-off implications aside... its about beating the Cubs!
  3. CheezWizHed
    NEVER make the first out at home. (Jonny Villar...would you PLEASE pay attention during baserunning 101) Statistically speaking never being thrown out at home leaves runs on the bases, since only 88% (or less) of those left on third base will score. So I wouldn't say NEVER, but it takes a great defensively play to get the guy at home, I'm not going to grouse about it.
  4. CheezWizHed
    Further complicating "knowing the situation" is who is up next. Towards the bottom of the order you will want to be more aggressive than at the top of the order. For just raw statistics, there is this study on expected runs (and wins) given different situations. Summarizing the different chances of scoring when having a man on third you get: 0 Outs: 83-88% chance of scoring 1 Out : 65-68% chance of scoring 2 Outs: 28-32% chance of scoring So that probably is the standard by which to judge your 3B coach sending players. He should be slightly better than those numbers. If you much higher than that, you are leaving runs on the basepaths. Too much lower and you are running into too many outs.
  5. CheezWizHed
    From July 5th IGT: I'm not picking on turborickey, because this is a very common comment when Sedar does something good or bad, so I thought it would make a good (lively) discussion point. Watching this game, I saw the play that evoked this comment: Braun was at second and got a late break on a single through the left side of the infield (waiting for it to go through). Surprisingly, Sedar sent Braun home even though the LF was in shallow left picking up the ball (Braun was surprised too). I thought Braun was toast, but the LF was off the mark and Braun scored easily. So I've been thinking about this lately. Of course, we all hate outs made at home, but if Sedar only sends people when there is a 100% chance of scoring, he is preventing runs from scoring. Stopping someone at third base means that someone else needs a hit, walk, bunt, PB, WP, or other "success" to score. So, the success rater of Sedar sending players should be balanced with their chances of scoring from third if they are stopped. So I wonder if anyone keeps those metrics? I would imagine internally, the Brewers are doing that, but I've not heard anyone posting them publicly. I found this article, which shows Sedar as one of the most aggressive 3B coaches in 2014, but still doesn't compare the rate of scoring to the chances of scoring from third if he stops them. I'm not saying Sedar is good or bad as a 3B coach, but curious about the statistics behind his play.
  6. CheezWizHed
    Cody Ponce (4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K) only went 4 2/3 innings while throwing 102 pitches and was the hard luck loser. He seemed to be concentrating on keeping the ball down tonight and that helped get a 7/1 ground out to fly out statistic. I wonder if Ponce needs to look to Jimmy Nelson's success this year to take the next step. Jimmy was always used his sinker/slider combo for high groundball rates but that didn't translate over to the MLB very well. Jimmy and Cody's MiLB results are pretty similar, Not to mention both are large 6'6" pitchers. JN: 3.12 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.8 K/9IP, 3.8 BB/9IP CP: 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.7 K/9IP, 1.8 BB/9IP I know some of Nelson's MLB struggles came from lack of control, but its also quite striking the difference his approach is having on his K rate (9.7 vs 7.8 MLB career) and ERA (3.20 vs 4.15). I realize that their pitching profiles don't match exactly (Nelson throws harder, but less control), but I wonder if pitching higher instead of lower would help Ponce as it helped Nelson.
  7. CheezWizHed
    You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite. You also need to fish in the right waters and with big enough bait. We had many lines in the water in years past, but we were using waxies three feet from shore. All we caught were baby sunfish. Time to go after some muskies!
  8. CheezWizHed
    He didn't hold out for $66.66 more?
  9. CheezWizHed
    What's bugging me is that this post sounds like a very interesting story, but only gave a few juicy tidbits... Where is Paul Harvey when you need him?
  10. CheezWizHed
    You can normally find that info on MLB.com. Hereis the top 10 rounds of 2017.
  11. CheezWizHed
    The All-Star selections are performance based, not a selection of the best players in the game.
  12. CheezWizHed
    Maybe you should visit the Link Reports in our minor league forum.
  13. CheezWizHed
    Not to mention the aerodynamics of spinning balls going through air. If you are used to throwing 90 MPH, 20MPH winds means the air is going by at 110MPH. Spinning balls will react very differently with +20MPH.
  14. CheezWizHed
    [sarcasm]Release the bum![/sarcasm]
  15. CheezWizHed
    She has pictures of the license plates, but the police won't do anything unless they are there since its a "minor" issue.
  16. CheezWizHed
    You have no idea. You have no idea #2: A friend of mine lives next to the high school athletics field. There is parking along the road and a main entrance for people to access the field. There are also alternate gate entrances for people to get into the field. But she regularly has people pull into her driveway (at the far end of the field, farthest from anything), have their kids change into their sport clothes, block her driveway, and then have the kids climb over the fence to get into the field. The last time she asked them to leave, the response was "get a life!" And of course, they are gone before the police will respond.
  17. CheezWizHed
    I doubt we need to preserve Woodruff's options. I'm guessing he is a guy that will come up and stay up. I'm in the camp of giving Jungmann another shot. His first three months were outstanding: June 2015: 2.79 ERA over 29 IP July 2015: 1.77 ERA over 35.2 IP Aug 2015: 3.12 ERA over 26 IP Then the wheels came off: Sept/Oct 2015: 7.85 ERA over 28.2 IP April/Mar 2016: 9.15 ERA over 20.2 IP And his peripherals matched ERA in similar fashion. Especially his walk rate spiked at the end of 2015 and was worse in 2016. We all know his mechanics are very critical to him "being right". And of course there is an adjustment point where people start seeing him, but I don't believe this was merely a league adjustment. I think his mechanics were out of whack or something more with him than the league. His increase in walk rate would also support that theory. Also, his FB rate did drop from 2015 to 2016: 2015 FB was averaging 92.6 MPH. 2016 FB was averaging 90.5 MPH.
  18. CheezWizHed
    If I recall right, holes in his swing was his main issue offensively. Which is pretty normal for a kid that is so tall. Yes, it is too early to sign him off. But certainly he is fulfilling the main scouting concern. Personally, with anyone past the top 5 rounds or higher $$$ Latin america signs, I tend to take the wait and see approach before I get too high on them. If they hit, wonderful. If not, he was a later round pick.
  19. CheezWizHed
    He was hitting 204/286/383/669 this year. His BA isn't that far off of last year, but OBP and SLG are way down. I wonder how hard his agent worked to negotiate with the Brewers to avoid arby or if he was using arby to get a big payday. Either way, a player that strikes out a lot can be tolerated. Less so when an agent strikes out (for the player that is).
  20. CheezWizHed
    Unfortunately, I think Anderson's injury will do just that.
  21. CheezWizHed
    Toaster Tolerance? Darkening Diversity? FYI, Blinkers work on a bi-metal strip also. Current runs through them and heats them up until they bend and break the circuit. Breaking the circuit stops the current and the part cools until it makes the circuit again and the process repeats until someone driving down the road honks at you to remind you to turn it off.
  22. CheezWizHed
    leitermab07, Please abide by the board rules on swearing or bypassing filters.
  23. CheezWizHed
    Yup, just a wisecrack. I don't what was responded to it and don't care to be in any argument therefore the sarcasm on it, all I meant is that chances are the guy is on a fraudulent Visa and obviously that's a hot button issue these days. Just was trying to make a joke about that, not start any argument. But yea these days it's probably best to just not bring it up as everyone gets combative about it rather than just chuckle and move on. With as divisive as politics seem to be these days, its best to just avoid it and stick to BB. There is a forum for politics. Sorry, I actually meant YoungGeezy1 for his post on Obama's birth certificate.
  24. CheezWizHed
    And lost the game in the progress. W>K
  25. CheezWizHed
    trwi7 and tmwiese55 Please drop the political commentary. It doesn't belong here.
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