CheezWizHed

It would be interesting to re-run the predictive numbers based on the trades/promotions that happened during the season rather than based on the starting roster. The Royals made some big changes and NYM made one or two also.

At least Maryland is acknowledging what the refs couldn't. Not to mention that the refs even called a technical on Wisconsin for "going after" Stone after he did that. Not that any WI player even came close to touching him (as others got between them immediately). But handing out offsetting technical fouls was insult to injury.

Ironically, I just noticed this morning that I crossed 3000 posts recently. Do I get a thread too? Or do I have to wait for another 1000 posts? Nice write-up by the way. If you have never had a winter wind blow up your jock strap, you have never played spring baseball in Wisconsin. I remember shoveling off our infield before our first game of my freshman year in HS. And that was due to winter snow remaining, not an unexpected spring snow storm either. Why did you pick Khrush as your avatar? That might help pick a new one.

Performing well in AA or AAA. Do you think the Brewers will be that aggressive with him? He would almost need to start at Brevard in order to achieve that, wouldn't he?

True, but pretty unlikely (despite what "Major League" might have you think. ). Statistically speaking, I was referring to more of a +/- 1 sigma deviation where you are talking more about exceeding +3 sigma deviation (i.e. the least talented team in the MLB making the playoffs). http://www.canadianmetalworking.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2013/12/Sigma-chart.png

Remember with AROD was untradeable after his signed his contract in Texas? As long as you are productive, you are trade-able.

Even with the Brewers after the draft, they were dialing him back to gain control. There are few players that can throw 100MPH AND control it at that speed.

But I'd wager that people would try... especially if its raining.

Well, the 1987 Brewers (and Detroit Tigers) were more talented (i.e. wins) than the Twins, yet we didn't make the playoffs and the Twins won the WS. [sarcasm]Not that I'm still bitter or anything...[/sarcasm] I don't think he is saying that a "68 win" team is suddenly going to win 95 games with the same talent. But that a "68 win" team (by prediction) might actually win 60 or 75 wins simply by variations in luck, injuries, schedule, etc... That the actual results are sometimes determined by a Bartman.

Bad assumption based the vs. Lefty stats. But getting anyone out would be helpful to Bradford.

So, going back to the OF situation... Trading Khris gives us a more flexible situation to evaluate the talent we have going forward. Santana is certainly the biggest winner of Davis' trade, but I think we have others. Here is what I'd like to see in this year of evaluating our "next gen" OF: 1) Move Braun (RHB, 32yo) back to LF. I'd prefer it was 1B, but I think LF is realistic for this year. He would become more neutral defensively in LF from what I've seen on D-metrics. We have better, younger defensive OFers that can cover the more difficult RF spot. 2) Santana (RHB, 23yo) gets most starts in RF. He certainly doesn't have anything more to prove at AAA, but isn't a sure thing at MLB either. His OPS of 768 is manageable for LF/RF. But I think there is the expecatation based on MiLB numbers that he could do much more. Probably won't outhit Davis this year if Davis stays healthy, but certainly has the chance in the next 2-3 years. Need to answer the question if he really was a steal in the Gomez/Fiers trade. 3) Rymer Liriano(RHB, 24yo): Top priority lottery ticket. A mid-tier prospect that the Padres didn't prioritize because of better players ahead of him and he is out of options. But still has some fans due to bat speed and versatility. Fringy (from what I hear) defense for CF, he probably should get the first shot there. Could also spell Braun/Santana in LF/RF too. Give him a chance to be Geraldo Parra. 4) Ramon Flores (LHB, 23yo): Second Priority Lottery Ticket. Smooth Lefty hitter with limited power. Limited to corner OF, but not a great arm for RF either. No real updates on his injury has people speculating that he might start on the DL, which might be a positive thing for the Brewers; allowing him to have a MiLB stint before making a decision on activating him and giving others a longer stint to prove/disprove themselves. Out of options. 5) Keon Broxton (RHB, 25yo): Third priority Lottery Ticket. Good defensive CF with speed. Career minors numbers of 253/333/410/743. Not bad for CF, but not great. Might be a late bloomer as he has hit better the last two years. I'd like to see him get a shot over Nieuwenhuis. Won't be Carlos Gomez despite the similar size/speed, but if he can hit is minor league numbers with good CF defense, that is worth a CF starter somewhere (knowing Phillips is coming soon). Looks like he has an option left? 6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis (LHB, 28yo): Comfort blanket of the group comes as a waiver claim. Probably the most known player as he has already maxed as a 4th OFer. Probably would be a passable starting CFer with decent D, and has a career 232/306/389/695 in 693 ABs. No options remaining. 7) Michael Reed (LHB, 23yo) - Needs to start at AAA. Reed is certainly an MLB type player, but I think he can still use another year in the minors before making the jump. I think he is more than a lottery ticket type player, but I want to see him prove it for a year at AAA. His AA was a bit of a break-out from prior years, so I'd like to see him sustain at AAA. So for now, I see it like this: LF: Braun/Liriano CF: Liriano/Nieuwenhuis RF: Santana/Liriano AAA: Reed/Phillips/Broxton IR: Flores That is the most logical from keeping the most talent, but I tend to think about cutting Nieuwenhuis and let Broxton be the backup CF with 25% of the starts. When Flores comes back, he can be the 5th OFer at that point.

That was a pretty solid win against Maryland despite the ref's best efforts to keep Maryland in it. The head slam as a flagrant-1 was a joke. Obviously intentional and dangerous in that its a blow to the head with the floor involved. But more than that, the fouls in the second half against Wisconsin was very ticky-tack while WI was getting clobbered at their end. It got worse as the game wore on. The "foul" against Koenig that gave Maryland 3 FT late in the game was a laugher. Koenig did an 'Ole to the left and the shooter flopped to get the foul called. If they can play MI State and Iowa close and win the other games they should win, they could be very dangerous in the Big10 tourney. They beat Maryland once, almost twice. Played Iowa pretty close too. And they obviously have momentum after changing offenses. Being hot from the 3pt line has certainly helped. So hopefully that isn't a fluke.

Interesting. They admit that the system favors hitter heavy systems (like ours). And they omitted (for sample size reasons) the 2015 draft. So that number one rating doesn't include Clark, Kirby, Ponce nor Demi-O. But they did include Nottingham with the Brewers (quick reaction). I wish they would specify how many prospects fall in each bin, but they do break it down by projected career WAR per group: 1.0-2.0 WAR: 17 WAR 2.0-3.5 WAR: 20 WAR 3.5+ WAR: 50 WAR - So its hard to tell how many players are in each category. And they have a rounding error, as this adds up to 87 WAR instead of the 86 they state overall. If we average the WAR, we would get this many players: 1.0-2.0 WAR: 17 WAR (Ave 1.5 WAR): about 11 players 2.0-3.5 WAR: 20 WAR (Ave 2.75 WAR): about 7 players 3.5+ WAR: 50 WAR (Ave 4.0 WAR): about 12 players Plus, they talk about the Astros and their no-so-small army of 1.0-3.5 WAR type players. "a lot of prospects who feel like 'scouting the stat line' specials". Probably something we should expect in the future from DS.

So starting at Wisconsin and then showing success at Biloxi for an extended period? (i.e. trying to translate what is meant by "knocking on the big league door") That seems aggressive for most teams and extremely aggressive for the Brewers. I can see Clark as someone who doesn't need a full year at each level, but the Brewers seem loathe to have players skip levels. I could see him at Brevard at the end of next year, but I'd be surprised if he made it higher without an injury of some sort driving the promotion.

Are there really any young lefty BP pitchers at AAA that Boyer will be competing with? Bradley is the only one I can think of and he isn't really looking like MLB material at this point. Who knows... maybe Boyer will help Bradley get over that hump?

Bravo for you. You got one. Personally I was a little surprised that they got it done this late in the off season. Same with Lucroy. We all project that they WANT to trade him, but will they is the big question. It takes someone giving up what we want in return. It doesn't sound like any one has gotten that "desperate" yet. That is why I voted that he won't go until mid-season.

Agreed, except a trade at the deadline instead of next off-season. Look at Melvin's trades at the deadline last year. Bigger return on every one of them than I would have hoped for. Stearns trades, I can't say that. The Segura trade was a bigger return than most expected. Getting Diaz (though at A-ball this year) was a huge win IMO. Wagner/Anderson part of that was pretty much a wash. So Segura for Hill/Diaz is pretty big. This trade will hinge on whether Nottingham stays at C or not. If yes, its a huge win for us. If he hits well at 1B, I think its still good for us. I'm a big Khrush fan and have been since he opened our eyes at A-ball (my top-25s always had him higher than the overall group). But at 28, injury prone, and a bad throwing arm, he is much better at a place where he can DH. I think we got a good trade back for him.

So that piles up Houle and Leal at Brevard

2nd Base: T. Neuhaus Shortstop: Isan Diaz 3rd Base: J. Gatewood However they pick the "normal" defensive line-up, I wonder how consistent they will be. Or if they might change some things around. From the reports, neither Gatewood or Diaz project to be long term SS. But neither has played themselves off the position either. So if the above is the "normal", I wonder how often they would do the below config for the sake of positional flexibility: 2nd Base: Isan Diaz Shortstop: J. Gatewood 3rd Base: T. Neuhaus

So can we put to bed the notion that they somehow still need to rebuild the system by continuing to trade off every player of value currently on the major league roster simply for more prospects? My guess is no. Because its not like anyone here controls it. Its pretty obvious from DS that they are shopping Lucroy at a minimum. We are only reacting and speculating as to what the Brewers are doing.

BCB is also projectingus to be very active next signing period.

I thought you were going to break out in Seuss rhyme for a second there... I don't want him on a boat. I don't want him with a goat. I don't want him in spring training. I don't want him if its raining. I don't want him eating jam. I don't want him Stearns I am!

Gallo's minor league numbers are: 258/369/602/971 You don't have an OBP that is 111 higher than your AVE without working counts. Even with the Rangers he hit: 204/301/417/717. So .097 higher at he MLB level too. And don't forget he was 21 at the time... The key would be if he can stick at 3B defensively. 1B might be a decent backup option, but if the most probable location for him is OF, I'd certainly rather have Brinson as there would be less risk and better defense. Not to mention, that we already have Santana in the OF that profiles similarly to Gallo.

[sarcasm]So a #5 ranking from Law means we actually are #1? [/sarcasm]

When is that time exactly anyway? If he's Jose Abreu part 2, seems to me they can be competitive a lot sooner than you think without sacrificing a single prospect. A left side of the infield of Arcia and this guy would be a very, very good one. Of course that's assuming they don't deal off the remaining quality vets. For one, I didn't say we shouldn't sign him, but I doubt we sign him. I'm not sure the timeframe for the rebuild, but given that we traded away a 32 year old 1B (a position of need and not blocking any prospects), I'd say that it's unlikely to sign a 31 (soon 32) yo 3B. It just doesn't fit the MO of what we are doing right now (still being in "tear-down" mode). Similar to others, I thought about the "sign him and flip him" possibility, but I just can't imagine that we would out spend a team that really could use him right now, which is when his biggest value will be. And add in the risk of signing him to an anchor deal if he doesn't work out.