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CheezWizHed

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Everything posted by CheezWizHed

  1. CheezWizHed
    Yeah, I agree with Homer. It was interesting because it would be very outside my norm (i.e. office job) and seeing the behind the scenes of something you'd never think was that complicated.
  2. CheezWizHed
    It has been a long time since the Brewers were must-see TV just due to the SP pitching matchups. And then suddenly we've had a few of them!
  3. CheezWizHed
    I wouldn't mind putting Miz in the BP in order to manage his innings this year. Piggyback him with Woody or Priester (120 innings last year)?
  4. CheezWizHed
    If a saving grace is an attribute that describes a lone redeeming quality, is a saving grave the only thing that keeps his career alive? 😂
  5. CheezWizHed
    Ok, I'm planning on a vacation next May in the Smokey Mountains. We probably will do a few touristy type things (not Dollywood!), but more want to focus on the natural aspect of the area (mountains, hiking, waterfalls, overlooks) or historical sites (Civil War, railroads, etc...). We are planning on staying in an AirBnb, but possibly a cabin or something like that. No hotels please - we need a kitchen. Any recommendations?
  6. CheezWizHed
    Probably because Lillard won't play next year and will have a reduced salary (from the $50+M we owe him) the year following that. What is his incentive to reduce his salary? I'd be curious if the stretch rules apply to a buyout also? We needed every bit of the salary savings to make the Turner deal work.
  7. CheezWizHed
    Correct. Moneyball wasn't specifically based on any "new" statistics like WAR. It was more a concept of finding undervalued players. WAR is a compilation of different measurable metrics. So when it says, "there is no one way" to calculate it... sure. BR and Fangraphs calculate it differently. Even with a different algorithm for WAR, both BR and FG end up showing very similar relative results from player to player. WAR is a hand grenade of metrics. It gets you into the ballpark to show relative value between players. But all the metrics going into WAR are also measurable (like AVE, OBP, SLG, etc...) and not just made-up subjective numbers. Even OPS (which was new in the mid-1980s) is a compilation metric (easy math: OBP + SLG). I know that someone with a 900 OPS is a better hitter than someone that is 600 OPS. But if two players are 800 OPS, does the 200/250/550 batter have more value than the 300/350/450 one? At that point you need to look beyond OPS. WAR is analogous to OPS in that way. It is also good to point out that some metrics were replaced by metrics that were more accurate (like VORP replaced by WAR). Generally, when a metric doesn't pass the "scout sniff test" it tends to die or be replaced. There has been a long evolution on most of these metrics since the 90s. And in the last 10-15 years, using technology to measure all sorts of data has helped build their accuracy too.
  8. CheezWizHed
    I just watched this (both Major League 1 and 2) yesterday after the ballgame. 😏 And his AAA numbers are terrible right now anyway.
  9. CheezWizHed
    The money is guaranteed, so what reason would Lillard have to negotiate at all?
  10. CheezWizHed
    I'm glad Rollins is back. I see good things for this young man. Overall, the team stepped back offensively.... but took a big step forward defensively. Odd to say, but I think the team sort of hinges on Kuzma. If he is able to mesh with the team during the offseason better... or if they are able to flip him (and his expiring contract) for someone better. This could be a very good team.
  11. CheezWizHed
    I'm sure Murph didn't just randomly throw it in. It is pretty easy to imagine that those questions have come up for Peralta this year... and perhaps even clubhouse discussion about it. We discuss trades in an off-handed manner because no matter the trade, we remain Brewer fans. Peralta has played his entire MLB career with the Brewers... trade possibilities are starting to become very real for him. Trade can greatly impact their whole life. Imagine if you went into work tomorrow and your boss told you that you have to report to a different city and different company, so pack up your house and move. It is a big impact. Ensuring you stay focused with that distraction is a big deal. Murph knows what Peralta has been dealing with better than any of us.
  12. CheezWizHed
    Obsolutely my favorite game of the year. Woody's control and pitch sequencing was so good to see. Big Woo has been one of my favorite Brewers since he came up. So good to see him back and pitching well. Welcome back Brandon!
  13. CheezWizHed
    Meanwhile, Jrue loved it, Giannis Loves it...
  14. CheezWizHed
    Just to be clear... that isn't a LIllard quote. That is some ESPN talking head's comment about Dame. Talk about click-bait. Bears fans are always miserable... 😂
  15. CheezWizHed
    I can see LIlliard being a late-career Ray Allen type (or Del Curry if you remember back that far). He wasn't great on defense the last two years and getting two years older with a serious foot injury... I can't imagine he is going to be a starter in the league. Sure he can score, but there is no way he will be able to play playoff-level defense for anyone.
  16. CheezWizHed
  17. CheezWizHed
    Well, I'm not exactly young either, though my engineering and mathmatics education tends to help me adapt to metrics. 😉 Molly is still my favorite player and I'm so sorry that you missed 1987 and Team Streak. Still the most exciting team that never made the playoffs... (yes, I'm still bitter that they had a better record than the Twins and didn't get in the playoffs on a year the Twinkies won the WS). The funny thing is that metrics are all based on stats, so I'm not sure the comparison there. Now there are a TON and not all are cracked up to be what you'd expect and you need to understand their weaknesses. But they have gotten much better. They also help small market teams like the Brewers (that are very metrics-based) compete. The days of Sal Bando guessing badly on draft day are long gone (thank GOODNESS!!!). The funny thing is... watching baseball, I knew Yount was good, but he wasn't a big HR guy so I never quite understood why he won two MVPs. Likewise, I'd see Gumby hit 275, but still not look like he was contributing much. Then someone figured out OPS (and OPS+)and WAR.... suddenly you see all of Yount's value built in the 2B and 3Bs. While Gumby proves himself to be an empty singles hitter. Good metrics match what is seen... but also quantifies it so you can compare players more directly - even in different eras (i.e. ERA+, OPS+, etc...).
  18. CheezWizHed
    I think you get hung up on power too much. It is worth understanding those "new-fangled metrics" 😉 because they show a player's value that comes from multiple spots and not just power. Remember the Braun/Fielder era where our offense often sputtered because ALL we had was homers? If the wind blew in or they had a heavy sinker (or heavy K) pitcher, our offense was almost always silent. 6'4" Chris Carter was our starting 1B one year and hit 41 HRs... and was out of the MLB a year later. Why? Because he had zero other value offensively or defensively. His batting line of 222/321/499/821 looks great... but that year he produced 0.7 WAR in 644 plate appearances. By contrast, Collins has put up 1.2 WAR in 189 PAs. Yes, we all want to have every position on the team hit 20+ dingers per year... but that doesn't happen. There were 23 players that hit 30+ and 90 that hit 20+ HRs last year. So why not look for value in other ways - defense, steals, OBP.... Collins and Durbin's overall numbers are pretty ho-hum... but in the past month, all three (with Frelick) have been on a tear. That was the main point of my post. I expect Frelick to hit around 300 with a 750 OPS range. Not sure that Collins or Durbin will continue to be 800 OPS players. But if they can, that is perfectly acceptable (even wonderful) at the bottom of your batting order.
  19. CheezWizHed
    The OP was a bit of tongue-in-cheek, but also recognizing the oddity of having 3 short players who are playing well. No one is suggesting that we fill each position with short players, but if they are hitting close to 800 OPS, they are above-average starters in the league. I mean... would you really rather have Bauers out in LF instead of Collins just because he has more power? (413 vs 384 SLG). Plus feel free to differ without begging...that's just embarrassing. 😉
  20. CheezWizHed
    The comparison of Isaac and Caleb is kind of interesting too. Both are players that were "mostly" 2B and found defensive success elsewhere. Their career MiLB numbers are pretty close too: Caleb: 269/371/411/782 Isaac: 266/380/422/803
  21. CheezWizHed
    Sal, Isaac, and Caleb (actually 5'7") have become integral parts of our offense over the last month and keying our offensive turn-around. The last 30 days: Sal: 331/368/435/803 Isaac: 310/425/517/942 Caleb: 291/364/437/801 Sal has proven himself enough for this to not be a big surprise. High average, excellent OBP, ok SLG with excellent defense makes a nice starter. And that is exactly what his draft profile said he could be. Isaac came out as a surprise. Probably underrated due to his size, he has proven himself to be a legit MLB; especially with his strong defense - despite playing more 2B in the minors. Not sure his power will stay, but certainly a great find. Caleb: You could probably equate Collins and Durbin due to very similar MiLB hitting profiles...just one left the infield to prove to be excellent on D and the other is finding a home at 3B. I'll admit that I doubted he would translate success to the MLB level, but he is proving me wrong (and I'm happy about it).
  22. CheezWizHed
    He killed the rally by cleaning off the bases!
  23. CheezWizHed
    Please continue opening your mouth! 😂
  24. CheezWizHed
    Yet... so very different.
  25. CheezWizHed
    This looks familiar...
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