CheezWizHed

It was here and reputable scouting sites. Highest I could find for Burnes was at #69 out of 100 (as I referenced above). And there is a difference between "confidence in Burnes being a good SP at the MLB level" and "confidence that Burnes was going to be an ACE pitcher". The context of my comment was that few people expected Burnes to be an ACE before he became an ACE. Most of the discussion in 2019 (Hall's equivalent to 2023) was "would Burnes be a starter" not "would Burnes be an ACE".

Burney was one player for whom modern sabermetrics fails. I could not find anywhere a stat listing the numbers of bats that flew out of his hands an into the stands. I'm quite sure he is number one all time.

Remember at this point in Burnes' career (i.e. age 25 season), he was coming off a disastrous season: 8.82 ERA, 51 ERA+, 1.8 WHIP. Many people thought he was going to be a BP only guy for many of the same arguments. I was still confident that we needed to have him start (and I was also very high on him all the way through the MiLB ratings too). But many people (at that time) doubted it. Once he put together his age 25 season, he was pretty primed to have a great year when he won the Cy Young at age 26. But many pitchers like Burnes have all the skills but can't put it all together. Manny Parra is a good example of someone that couldn't just get it done when the lights were brightest. Being an ace at the MLB level is much more than just the skills. Further, in 2018 (last time Burnes was on a prospect list), he was listed at #69 of the top 100 and below Keston Huira. Comments were about him "probably" returning to the lineup. In 2017, he was #21 of the Brewer's top 30. He wasn't very highly thought of (i.e. ACE level) until 2020 when he broke out and cemented it in 2021 with the Cy Young.

How much was the signing bonus? Do we have much cap space left for that year??

Yes, I was trying to figure out who was the most likely to break 1000 yards and it was pretty difficult to predict. I mean, no one broke 100 yards in a game until late in the season and that was (probably) mostly due to injuries (i.e. fewer WRs available that game). I would suspect that we have few RB receptions though. Not that they can't catch, but as you said... I think there are multiple WR/TEs that can get open by themselves so the need to do check-downs will be diminished. Though I hope we prove to be a good RB screen team.

Much has been touted this year about the "no #1 WR" concept on the Packers, but there are only so many balls that can go around. So, while there might not be a #1, there will eventually be something of a pecking order. The WR development this year could be very interesting. Watson - Probably the game-changer of the group when healthy. This was most evident in 2022-23 when playing with Rodgers. When Watson was in the game, the underneath routes for others opened up; without Watson, everyone moved up 5 yards and dared us to go deep. He was expected to break out last year, but injuries sidelined him again. Still don't know what he can do with intermediate routes. Hands might be the most questionable of the group, but he is the biggest (literally) TD target among WRs. Doubs - Overplayed his draft position as a rookie with a mature approach to the offense, but didn't really grow last year. I was expecting more of a 2nd year jump, but he really just plateaued. Maybe he is already maxed out? Everything about him is pretty average, except his above average hands. Every team needs a good possession WR to ensure those drive moving 1st downs. Reed - Became Love's goto WR last year. And for a time was nearly the only WR healthy and productive. Reminds me a bit of a poor-man's JJ. Will be interesting to see him make the second year jump. Wicks - A real dark-horse candidate with maybe the biggest variation between possible outcomes. A bit average in size/speed (like Doubs), but his footwork seems like a major differentiator for him. You don't need to be a burner to get open if the CB is going the wrong way. Really seemed to click with Love last season too. Melton - Seems like a Reed clone size wise. Really came out of nowhere last year and clicked with Love. No one was paying attention to him and he made them pay. Seems like that ascension has continued this offseason to prove his 2023 season wasn't a fluke. Both he and Reed (but maybe a bit more from Melton) have added to the deep game to ensure it wasn't just Watson opening up the underneath game. Toure - Had his opportunities but seems a bit limited to running go routes. Doesn't seem to bring much to the short/intermediate route games. I tend to think he won't make this roster. Heath - A preseason darling that pretty much vanished in the regular season. Queued up to be the Lazard replacement - big, blocking WR that will catch the short/intermediate stuff. Maybe he takes off in that role this year (it took Lazard a couple years to get there), but stiff competition to make it this year. DuBose - Major question mark has he was injured in TC last year. Could be looked at as a rookie this year (since we didn't draft one), but should already know the offense. Wouldn't stun me to be the 6th WR on the 53-man - probably a fight between he and Heath. Not worth commenting on the rest. The top 5 spots are all but wrapped up. The 6th is there, but Heath and DuBose have a pretty good lead at this point. As for this year's "#1 WR" (i.e. the one with the most plays and/or targets), I still think Watson has the best chance... if healthy. Otherwise, it wouldn't shock me to see Wicks up there.

When I first started listening to Brewer games regularly, I remember trying to figure out why that bad actor from Mr. Belvedere was calling their games... 🤦‍♂️🤣

I've adopted two children out of Bulgaria and it wouldn't be my top choice. Sofia is a pretty modern city and we enjoyed staying there, but I have no interest in living in a city long term. The Black Sea was also beautiful area, but the country customs are a bit appalling. Just a very dirty country - trash along the roads everywhere. And yes, as you mentioned, very poorly built infrastructure just like typical USSR countries (I've spent time in Ukraine and Belarus also).

No one is saying Hall is going to be Burnes, just that he can still be a successful MLB SP (granted, most people didn't think Burnes would become ace Burnes until he did). However, there are some similarities. Burnes didn't get a significant SP role until 25 years old. Hall is 25 this year. Burnes struggled greatly with control before his breakout; Hall - same. (Though Hall has struggled in the minors on that too, unlike Burnes). Both were on the top 100 prospect list, but not in the elite. Hall has had 33 IP in the majors before coming to the Brewers with one start. That is a pretty small sample. This year, most suspect his FB deficiencies this year to be related to this injury. HIs certainly didn't resemble his scouting profile and its more than just losing a couple MPH on the FB for starting. Scouting report had him at mid-90s starting and hitting triple digits in relief. He was more like 90-91 this year. I'm more than happy to let him get a decent sample size as a starter before we push him into relief. HIs value is so much higher there.

or not...

I mean...technically they are tied.

Note: I split the Rookie of the month (and Year?) discussion to its own topic since it was a bit hidden in the Burnes' trade discussion. And this certainly should be highlighted for Ortiz!

I think he was mostly focused on the roster generation for this year. Yes, Olson could be a SP option for the Brewers right now, but I don't think a missed trade in 2021 was the point of what he was doing. Maybe if the trade was meant for this year... I keep holding my breath that his back will catch up with him again. Hopefully he remains healthy. He was clearly not the same hitter a couple of years ago. If he was healthy no one would have an issue, but chronic back issues are nothing to sneeze at.

As I sit here staring at the name on my shirt, I have no one to blame but myself...

Screen capture please (for those of us not able to watch)!

But the good news is that we can't lose the series. But let's still stomp the Cubs! 😄

Is there really a "rubber match" in a four-game series? 🤔

So you are inferring that his defense at 1B and/or the players at 1B at the MLB level are what is blocking him from making the MLB? I think he has better opportunities at 1B than displacing Yelich and all the other young OFers at LF. The pipeline at 1B is pretty empty so unless he fails at 1B defense, this really makes no sense. Compound that with zero OF minutes since 2022 (and very limited even then) and I'd say it is pretty safe to say this isn't in the Brewers' plans.

And zero % of the teams not making the playoffs won the finals... 😉😂

I admit that I hate that you can get a full year subscription and then still have certain games blacked out. Obvious way to get people to try out Apple TV. But Tmobile subscribers get it for free (and MLB.TV), so I suppose I can't complain too much... But that annoying voice of that one announcer... ooof that was hard to listen to.

Look, I like discussion, but seriously learn to summarize. TLDR. Agreeing to disagree since we clearly don't see eye to eye on DT, DE or LBs in this new system.

Yes, Cox... did I ever mention that I stink at names? 😅 Yes, 250lbs is small for a 4-3 edge (i.e. DE). No Clay (nor Nolan, nor Reddick) is not the same as a 3-4 edge (i.e. OLB). They play different gaps. Reddick moved to the Jets and there are a lot of similar questions about him playing DE for them. Likewise for Leonard Floyd and the 49ers. They might have more gap responsibilities, but they are also farther out. Far fewer snaps against a G and more snaps against the TE/WR/RB on the outside. It isn't impossible for him to play 250lbs as a DE, but he pretty much has to be in obvious passing downs only unless he ends up being very "special" at defending the run. You tend to pick the "special" players as your examples, but Cox is an UDFA that hasn't shown much special to this point. As you say, for the 5th guy in the rotation, that isn't as much as a concern. I wasn't comfortable at #4 and expecting him to put in significant NFL snaps this year. My original point was relief that Enagbare was back, pushing Cox and similarly small UDFA backups down to 5th+ on the depth chart instead of 4th. Frankly, unless Cox really busts out this year, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pack went with 4 DEs on the 53 man and put Cox on the PS again.

But he was decent 3-4 years ago, which was the point of my comment as a "younger Houser". (i.e. low K rate, high GB%, around replacement level SP).

Kind of looks like a younger Adrian Houser type pitcher. Certainly wouldn't hurt given our injury issues.

Agreed. Probably makes sense as to why we didn't invest (even really in a solid UDFA) DE position this year. Gary, Smith, VN, and Enagbare is a pretty solid DE position. Moss seems a bit light as a DE, but maybe he gained weight or will be used in a rotating basis this year?