CheezWizHed

Well, we invested in the safety salad tongs and pack backup pillows for every player when traveling... not having them play baseball is the next logical step in keeping them injury free!

No, he was hit in a WBC game for Venezuela. But he played in the WBC and several ST games before mentioning that his hand hurt. Possibly aggravating it in an ST game. But someone else made the point above... is there any more risk in getting hit in ST vs the WBC? Most of the players came back to ST with fewer ABs than the players that stayed. Players that play sports will get hurt at sometime. At least he didn't hurt himself celebrating...

Harrison reminds me a lot of Chris Capuano, but he throws harder. Hopefully, he can learn Chris' pickoff move. But two nice games in a row for him. Looks like a keeper. How in the world did we get him for Durbin? Sproat reminds me of a right-handed Aaron Ashby. Everything almost moves too much to be really effective long-term. Hopefully, he can figure it out, but I'm guessing he is the first one down when Priester comes back. Still, two nice pickups in the offseason.

The conversation started with your comment about Watson's, Reed's, and Wick's trade values. 2nd, 2nd, and 4th. I offered a few trades that I thought were comparable for Watson with Reed and Wicks being lower value. You responded: So, unless you happen to throw random facts into your posts... this was about valuing Watson as a 2nd-rounder (or Reed or Wicks if you prefer).. Yes, I read your posts... I'm hoping you did.

Well, that was an odd double play...

It's been Collins so far this year, but I wonder who will be the better career - Collins or Durbin?

With two outs, I'm shocked Turang didn't score on a double. He must not have gotten much of a jump or he was tired from the steal attempts...

Upping inflation to 5% makes a big difference. Not only the salaries, but the $/WAR value too. Year Min Mid Max AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 1 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 $ 863,718 2 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 $ 1,300,059 3 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 $ 1,591,457 Arb 1 $ 3,707,294 $ 4,791,120 $ 10,924,362 Arb 2 $ 5,661,106 $ 11,103,650 $ 23,383,026 Arb 3 $ 6,834,488 $ 13,484,712 $ 28,142,008 FA 1 $ 30,691,878 $ 17,515,283 $ (15,554,631) WAR 2.7 1.6 -1.4 I suppose one could also assume that the new deal will also impact salaries upward, lessening the risk.

I was curious how Pratt's extension might compare to his theoretical path through arbitration. So I compiled a list of shortstops that have been in arbitration over the past 5 years (AI technically, so I'm sure I've missed a few players, but have enough of a sample to be in the ballpark). I calculated their Average WAR/year (this I did by hand) so I could put them in MIN, MID, and MAX tiers. 0-2 WAR=MIN, 2.1-4 = MID, 4.1+=MAX. So that gives me a potential list of salaries for Pratt if he takes one of those three paths. For the "normal" path, I assumed he would be in AAA this year and gave him a max AAA salary. Then for the FA year, I dumped what was left of the $50.75M "budget" (his contract amount) to see how good of a deal this would be. I used a 2% inflation for all numbers (salary and cost of WAR) to project out for 7 years. So, for today's FA cost of $8M/WAR, I used about $9.2M. Year Min Mid Max Cooper MLB AAA $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 6,343,750 1 $ 839,041 $ 839,041 $ 839,041 $ 6,343,750 2 $ 1,226,831 $ 1,226,831 $ 1,226,831 $ 6,343,750 3 $ 1,458,906 $ 1,458,906 $ 1,458,906 $ 6,343,750 Arb 1 $ 3,301,418 $ 4,266,587 $ 9,728,359 $ 6,343,750 Arb 2 $ 4,897,288 $ 9,605,503 $ 20,228,099 $ 6,343,750 Arb 3 $ 5,743,428 $ 11,332,009 $ 23,649,411 $ 6,343,750 FA 1 $ 33,183,087 $ 21,921,122 $ (6,480,647) $ 6,343,750 WAR 3.6 2.4 -0.7 So there are 4 main outcomes: Total Bust: Cooper doesn't even make it to Arbitration. This obviously is the worst-case scenario, but Cooper's defense keeps his floor high, so this is probably unlikely. But a Brewer Failure if that happens. Min player: Here we are holding on to a SS that averages 0-2.0 WAR/year, and we chose to give him $33M in FA and hope he makes 3.6 WAR that year. This would be Joey Ortiz. Another Brewer Failure. Mid Player: Now we have a SS that is giving us 2-4WAR/year. A one-year contract for $22M means we expect 2.4 WAR. This would be like signing Willy Adames for one more year. This feels like a break-even point, so I'll count this as a Brewer WIN. Max Player: Clearly, what everyone is hoping for. The script flips a bit in this row and the Brewers have actually saved $6.5M through arbitration and get a FA year for "free". You have a 4+ WAR SS (like Gunnar Henderson) and saved money in the meantime. Brewer victory. So what is the verdict? I'm pretty sure the Brewers are confident that Cooper won't be a bust (as am I). Being a max player is possible... but that one seems unlikely (though I'll bet on the MAX over being a Bust). So if the most likely outcomes are Min or Mid for Cooper, it seems like a pretty good contract for Cooper and just "ok" for the Brewers. If Cooper is a high defensive SS with a light stick (his floor IMO), that is a clear win for Cooper. If he is average, he is going to be paid just a hair less than the market rate for his FA year. Not much of a risk on his part. Caveat: I'm not sure if 2% is a great MLB inflation number (probably not). If salaries grow more than that, the trend will make the Brewer's decision look better in all outcomes.

If you weren't confusing FA $$ and trade value, why were your examples about FA $$? People have different values in FA than in trades. Watson keeps getting injured, so that pretty well balances him with Picken's issues. Pickens still outperformed him on the field. Adams' first trade is laughable to compare with Watson. You want to compare the best WR in the league with multiple ProBowls to a player that hasn't topped 700 yds receiving or played every game in a season yet? Adams put up 1500+ yards the season we traded him. Watson has 2200 yards in his career. Even last year Adams had more yards in the season than Watson has ever put up. Claypool is closer, but he still outperformed Watson before the trade (back-to-back seasons of 800+ yards) and had 2 years left on his rookie contract.

Did you know that the Southern League's average BA last year was .230? And that Cooper was 20 in a league where the average age was 23.8. Three years out of High School, he was an above average hitter at AA - typically seen as one of the harder "jumps" to make. Stats matter, but so does context. I still have concerns about his offensive potential, but obviously the Brewers have less concern.

That would be something if Doc posted here...

After the first weekend, I was last in my work bracket. Now I need AZ to beat UCONN to win the bracket... sorry Big10. I cheer against you this weekend. (Not that I have any love for ILL or MI anyway...)

Hooray! You've been mediocre for a very long time!

Since Badoo is on the 60 day DL, Chourio most likely gets back before Badoo is healthy anyway. It is likely that Matos is simply released (or traded for cash to someone else).... unless he always goes 6 for 12 with a HR against the Cubs. Then he will become local legend!

I was following on Gameday, but had to go to a meeting tied at 2-2. Came back and BOOOOOMMMM! 8-2 win. Nice!

If we could buy out Turang's arbitration and a year or two of FA, I'd do that. The Brewers should always, ALWAYS try to get good players on good contracts. Doesn't matter how many or their position. Trades happen and players on good contracts are great trade chips.

I'm pretty sure the Brewers knew a lot about Woody and Pratt before giving them the money. Just because us fans are ignorant of the details doesn't mean the front office is in the same situation....

Please.. no name calling! 😏

Don't confuse contract signing $$ with draft trade compensations... Recent WR trades have looked like: Pickens + 2027 6th round for a 2026 3rd and 2027 5th round. DK Metcalf + 5th round pick for a 2nd and 7th round. Mike Williams for a 5th round Deebo Samuel for a 5th round Davante Adams for a conditional 3rd round Pickens and Watson are probably the closest comparisons, but Pickens is still significantly more established with seasons of 801, 1140, and 900 yards prior to the trade. Watson tops out at 620. Pickens' return was about a 3rd round pick. DK Metcalf is what we hope Watson might become... got a net 2nd/3rd round return. Reed has done better than Watson yardage wise, but will be knocked as a slot only WR. And he isn't as good as Pickens or Metcalf either. People just don't give up high draft picks for good but not great players. Especially with one season of control.

They pretty much did the same thing in the overturned Turang tag. Brice never actually touched 2nd base, but they assumed that he would've made it if he was called safe on the field. So, they awarded him 2nd and Ortiz home as a result of the overturned call.

One thing that I really like about Arnold (and the Brewer's front office) is that he tends to zig when people zag. A bit of the Moneyball concept in that they find value in places where others don't. We can't compete with the $$ other teams throw at players so they are being very creative in how they build the team...and have been very successful lately. Most wins in the majors last year AND one of the top farm systems despite drafting low and not handing out the largest International bonuses. These contracts will obviously be judged over the next 10 years... but it is being very creative. I hope they get Made in the fall too.

Rollins is still growing into himself as a player. He has been somewhat inconsistent this year, but there are games that have to grab your attention... like last night (yes, against Dallas, but still). And he is still just 23, so certainly there is the ability to develop more leadership, but Giannis has to allow it to happen too.

My dog stopped eating and drinking last Friday. She has been sick for a while and is 14.5 years old, so this isn't a surprise... but it sure does suck.