CheezWizHed
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Everything posted by CheezWizHed
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Meh... he couldn't even beat Keon Braxton in a HR contest! 😂 -
Yeah, I wasn't sure to go find his pop times last year to compare, but regardless my point still remains... in coming back from a major injury and shaking off a year's worth of rust... he looked average defensively. It was a long way from the excellence he showed before the injury, but it isn't like people are saying he is going to be a terrible catcher now. Hope springs eternal in spring training... but I suspect he will regain another step towards what he was this year. If it is a big step, we will probably see him at the MLB level mid-season.
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CS rates are very much about small sample sizes, so the difference between 19% and 21% or even 24% is not "significant". Last year Quero was 1 for 9 at AZ and 10 for 43 (23%) at AAA. With 43 attempts every CS accounts for about 2%, so we are talking about 1 or 2 SB differences. I think is fair to say that last year... his first year after significant injury and a year long lay-off... he was pretty much league average for CS rates. I'm sure the Brewers want to give him at least another half year at AAA to let him build back strength and get back to a high level of play he had previously (offense and defense). He certainly got better as time went on last year. IMO, the worst-case scenario is that he ends up being an above average defensive catcher. I think the rumors of his defensive demise are pretty premature.
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Here's to hoping that Contreras earns the $14.5M team option next year!
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Hamilton should be a great utility player... but I don't want him and Ortiz both in the lineup often. Last year, both were sub-600 OPS and none of us wants to see that. Even at his best he was a sub 700 OPS player. Short term solution at 3B? ok.... But please not a long-term solution.
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The Devers trade for Boston now comes down to a #3 SP (Hicks), a #6-7 SP (Bello), and Durbin. Not sure that screams "win now"...
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I'm still here waiting for the other shoe to drop... In a way this trade reminds me of the Micah Parson's trade. We traded for the upside potential (though not comparing Harrison to Parsons directly), but it created a big hole in the lineup right before TC started (DT for the Packers - 3B for the Brewers). I think there are more options for the Brewers to fill 3B short term - often AAAA level guys become available at the end of ST - but we do seem to be more setup for next year (Jett, Cooper, Made, Quero as potential rookies) than this year. Even Harrison might need another year in the minors. ST will be interesting how this approach 3B this year.
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Yes, I also said that acquiring a player after June 1st (i.e. use the $8.8M to fill the hole) would be very hard to do and risky since we have little control over actually getting someone. Maybe you do it if you are very happy in FA/Draft on who we have... Agreed. From a pure cashflow perspective it makes sense that would be why the Pack cuts him. It would be odd to pay him another $6.25M and then cut him in June.
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You wondered why a player "like him" is available... I think the reason is that he is a good BB player, but doesn't fit on a good BB team. Scores points, but low efficiency. Poor defense. Considered a selfish player. The stats look good, but there is a reason he was cut. No harm at this point in the season, but we already have one player that needs the ball in his hands a lot (at least he plays good defense).
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"Frees up salary"... the problem is that it frees up less than salary than a vet minimum contract. And I'll bet on Hobbs over a vet minimum salary guy. You get over $8M for a post-June cut... but you also lose the opportunity to find guys work $8M/year too. So it ends up being a catch-22. Hobbs wasn't great, but cutting him doesn't give you much of an opportunity to improve the position either. Given that cutting a player 1 year after giving him a 4 year contract looks bad for a GM and there is little upside to cutting him... I'd guess they stick with him.
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We did also have Durbin's 1 year of production at 3B (2.8 bWAR) which was more than Williams brought in any single year of his career.
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It is hard to gauge the trade for a fictitious player. Technically Wilken and Adams are both controllable, young 3B. I'd assume you mean someone at the MLB level, but are we talking a 100 OPS+ bat or 140? GG defense or passable? 1 year of control or 6? The variables matter a lot...
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With Vaughn, I think you have to partially ignore his 2025 season both with the CHI-SOX and the Brewers. Both look a bit like outliers. I'd guess an OPS around 750 would be his floor. Wouldn't surprise me to see him around 800 if the move to the Brewers did have any specific benefit to him (team, coaching, approach, the fans 😉) A soft platoon with Bauers certainly helped him by avoiding the tougher RHPs. I'd wager that the pair can easily exceed 2 WAR this year. 3WAR even seems like a low bar. Yelich is not a 1B. Time to let it go.
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My only thought about Hobbs is that if you cut him... you have to replace him. And cutting him doesn't save much money anyway. Post-June cuts save more this year, but who is left in FA at that point? This would be the year to go with the spaghetti at the wall approach. Sign a couple low-cost FA CBs that failed elsewhere (basically last year's Stokes) and let them compete with a high-ish draft pick, last year's returning CBs, and our three main CBs. If things look good early, maybe you let Hobbs go later?
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But the 2026 offseason doesn't start until next Monday. 😛
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder... Phoenix dropped $2.5M to get under the tax line. Milwaukee got the only NBA viable rotation player out of the 4 with Richards. He is on expiring contract (they all are) but the Bucks own his Bird rights if they want him back next year. But getting even "B" grades certainly seems more logical than "D" and "A". I suppose it is good to remember this is Bleacher Report... perhaps the author was miffed that the Bucks didn't trade Giannis.
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Regarding CB, I wonder what people expect exactly. Nixon's performance dipped this year, but still was rated as a starting CB. Saying he is league average is a fair assessment. He is on a decent contract for his performance, so not much to gain by releasing him either. Valentine is on a rookie contract which basically is enough to say he stays. Performance wise, I'd rate him about the same capability as Nixon, but worse on instincts. There were several coverage blunders where he looked like he was guessing and got burnt. The chances of both of them coming back are very high. Hobbs' return could be debated. I'm about 50/50 if I think they will give him a second try or not. Mainly because there isn't a lot of cap savings to be had (although there is cash savings). But either way: Nixon, Valentine, (development CB holdovers from last year) + draft pick(s) + a FA or Nixon, Valentine, (development CB holdovers from last year) + draft pick(s) + Hobbs neither would constitute wholesale changes... Doesn't sound like there is much available for FA signing either.
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Bucks trade Cole Anthony, Amir Coffey to Suns for Nick Richards, Nigel Hayes-Davis. Richards looks like an upgrade for Jericho Sims. Or a precursor to a Bobby trade? Nice to have NHD on the Bucks... just for some Badger love. Giving up Anthony or Coffey are nothing-burgers, except that we oddly lacking anything at the SF position. Maybe Khash gets a buy-out and come back to fill the hole?
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I'm very high on Rollins. No way do I take a 2nd. Keep him and let him grow then. The Tank is strong with this one...
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Yes, if Giannis moves, it is fire-sale time. Next year, take on bad contracts for draft picks, then work on building it back up. Rollins would be the one I'm on the fence about... but if we are tearing down, it might still make sense for a good return.
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I would imagine we will see Mitchell and Perkins in a soft platoon or late inning replacement situation to limit Garrett's load. If he gets hurt again, I'd imagine that Chourio or Jett is the most probable long-term solution.
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In my mind, I've been comparing him to Byron Buxton, but even the oft-injured Bux averages 81 games and 310 ABs per year. Whereas Mitchell is closer to 35 games and 111 ABs. Hopes may be high, but expectations are low.
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So I got my first solar quote - a company that did both roofing (which I need to do first) and solar. $25k for a 10kWh (annual production) system - a very simple ROI puts it at a 22 year break-even point (with a 30-year warrantee). I've didn't factor in the increased cost of electricity (yet), but I also didn't figure in opportunity cost or efficiency losses either. I really doubt I'm going to get it under a 10 year ROI (which was my goal).
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What do those numbers compare to? To an NBA average? Buck's Average? To the average without them in the lineup? How do those +X numbers compare to other star pairs in the NBA? If Giannis+Lillard are +10.0, but Tatum and Brown are +15.0 (made it up)... They are all great players and should provide positive value, but that number in a vacuum doesn't mean much. Just by using my eyeballs, Giannis and Lillard was a very uncomfortable offense to watch. It is also clear that Turner plays very differently when Giannis is injured.
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If Wilken hits > 800 OPS and Pratt hits <700 OPS. Futures are still TBD and Wilken's power is always going to give him a bit more leash given how rare it is.
