CheezWizHed

I agree with Jopal. The contract (like all contracts) just becomes part of the risk analysis of trading for a player. Likewise the ability to offer a QO if he declines the 2nd year is a benefit of such a contract. All aspects are weighed when trade compensation is considered. The risk of future injury never makes someone "untradeable" unless they have a huge contract and chronic condition. Hoskins' knee wouldn't fit that bill.

Much has been said about the minimal return we got for Burnes or simple dislike for the prospects. I think not enough has been said about Burnes' regression the last few years. His K and BB per 9IP rate has gone the wrong direction for 3 years. Along with it, his ERA and FIP have continued to climb. I've seen some projections of him having a 3.8 ERA this year (a perhaps too simplistic curve fit on his last 3 years data). But I think just watching him pitch brings similar concerns. He will look dominant so many times through 4 innings and have the wheels fall off in the 5th or 6th innings. With his reduced control increasing his walks, it also seems to effect his placement inside the zone. Typically later in his outing, he throws a meatball down the middle that gets hit pretty hard. Overall, pitching well... but always giving you the feeling that he is dancing on the wall of being mediocre again. Some outings are dominate; some are forgettable. I'm sure all the other GMs see that also and that effects his trade value. Now, I'm sure Burnes will pitch like a #1 pitcher for Baltimore, but I do wonder for how long that will continue. Is it completely out of possibility for Hall to have a better ERA than Burnes come 2025? Most people complain that we just dumped on the 2024 season by trading Burnes. I look at our team this year and it felt like we were at best treading water. Our rotation wasn't even close to last year's. Miley and Burnes are on the wrong side of the age curve. Big Woo is gone. And our replacements are pretty suspect. The BP remains pretty strong as they were last year (assuming a litany of short starts doesn't wear them out). Our offense should be better as the rookies age and Hoskins, but I don't see it as enough to overcome the pitching decline. Thus, I've been an advocate of building on the future of Chourio, Black, Quero, Contreras, Frelick, Wiemer, and Misiorowski. I think Hall and Misiorowski paired together gives us the potential of a very high upside duo. A bunch of risk, but a very high upside. So I grade the trade as an "A" for Baltimore and "B" for Brewers... in 2024. What grade we give it in 2025 will just have to wait and see. But clearly the "win" for the Brewers is in the long game and not 2024.

Well, I was comparing scouting reports and MILB results. Even if they only hit that this year... we have both for several more.

Ortiz seems like what we want Turang to be. Good defensive player who actually can hit. Not going to be a homer guy, but a doubles hitter mainly. Almost like taking Frelick's bat with Turang's D.

Thought this was interesting from Keith Law (yeah, I know, but other scouts seem to say the same) one year ago. After that, Hall seemed to continue control struggles, but Ortiz continued to climb up the boards. 5. DL Hall, LHP (No. 84) Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds Bats: Left | Throws: Left Drafted: No. 21 in 2017 This is Hall’s fifth year on the top 100, and probably his last — either he breaks through and plays long enough in the majors to graduate, or he fails to make any progress in command and control and spends most of the year repeating Triple A. His stuff is too good to ignore, though. Hall is a hyper-athletic lefty who can show several plus pitches, with a fastball that topped out at 98.6 mph in the majors this year, a power curveball he rarely used in the big leagues, a hard slider with big horizontal break, and a straight change that’s very deceptive because it looks so much like his fastball out of his hand. His delivery is good and he could repeat it, but he doesn’t throw as many strikes as he should, or really as he could. When he’s ahead in the count, he works out of the strike zone way too often given the quality of his stuff. Between his huge extension out front, the way his breaking stuff and his fastball/change break out of his hand, and the genetic fortune of being left-handed, he should be a front-line starter who misses a ton of bats and holds down hard contact. It’s all about location for him now, and while he’s made some progress since he was drafted, this year will determine quite a bit about his future career path. 6. Joey Ortiz, SS (No. 95) Age: 24 | 5-11 | 175 pounds Bats: Right | Throws: Right Drafted: No. 108 in 2019 Ortiz remade his swing and body during the pandemic year and came back a different hitter in 2021, but hurt his shoulder after just 35 very productive games in High A. He returned for Opening Day 2022 but struggled out of the gate, hitting .214/.275/.328 in the first half of his season (69 games), striking out three times as often as he walked. His second half was much more in line with the player we saw before his injury: he hit .355/.422/.627 in his last 68 games, the final 26 of them in Triple A, with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s a 60 defender at short, with great actions and soft hands, possibly the best defender of the Orioles’ many, many shortstop prospects. At the plate, he’s short to the ball and hits a lot of line drives, although he puts the ball on the ground often enough that he’s much more likely to keep hitting for average than he is to hit 19 homers (his 2022 total) in the majors. He rarely whiffs, making contact on about five of every six swings, and doesn’t run a ton of deep counts because he can put enough pitches in play to avoid them. The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense.

I don't think Nixon was all that bad as a nickel CB. He had games where he played poorly, but he also had games where he made big plays and covered very well. He isn't a lock-down CB, but decent. Frankly for the draft, I hope they continue to draft outside CBs and find nickel CBs among the players they get. It is kind of like drafting starting pitchers and converting some to the BP. Draft for the high value positions and the lower value (slot CB) will come. As for "game changing returner"... he was the best (or one of the best at least) KRs in the league, but the impact of KRs has been neutered overall in the NFL. There really isn't a Cordelle Patterson type returner that you need to game plan for at this point. Calling KN a game changer at KR is too much, IMO Thus, if they do bring KN back on a second contract (presumably for decent $$), I hope it is because he will do both KR and Nickel. He isn't a good enough KR to spend FA money on to be a one trick pony.

I doubt any of them would take a Seattle assistant position over the Packer's DC spot. The Ravens DC spot however...

I wouldn't mind another SP option as I'm still not 100% sold on Ashby's health (or endurance for a full season). Or Miley's for that matter. I'm not crazy about our SP depth, but I don't think Keller helps that either. As a minor league option maybe? Seems like a poor-man's Adrian Houser. Tim Anderson is the player on this list that looks like he has some 2023 upside.

Just ask him to slump a little bit...

Well, one must have a hobby, especially as a bear's fan. Bear down! Its been a rough 40 years... 😝

I appreciate the optimism, but statistics and scouting say that most of those guys won't reach the bigs and will make a minimum impact if they do. Yes, someone can always break out, but probably only one at most.

I doubt Burnes is moved at this pace, but it does leave me a bit concerned about our future rotation... Peralta - $8M club options for 2025 and 2026 (boy was that contract a winner!). Ashby - High end, but high risk with his injuries. Not sure what to expect out of him. Misiorowski - Probably our only minor league pitcher with TOR possibilities. Gasser - Mid-low end rotation potential. Risk against RH hitters. Rodriguez - probably about the same as Gasser. Miley - not sure how long he can continue to pitch well AND sign low end contracts AND stay healthy. Rea, Ross - retread filler #5 rotational types. If Ashby and Les Mis' can hit their peaks, that rotation probably matches our past Burnes/Woo/Peralta rotations. But I think that is a big IF - especially Ashby's health. By moving Burnes and Adames now, you get the chance of bringing back 2-3 higher end SP options to fill that gap. A small step down this year, but a big step up in future years. But it certainly doesn't look like that will happen.

Late to the game, but my wife and I burned through two seasons of "Only Murders in the Building" in about 3 weeks. I'm sure we will have season 3 done before season 4 drops. Fun and quirky. My wife said, "It is nice to watch something that isn't a redo of another show". Pretty classic Steve Martin and Martin Short stuff. I've not seen Selena Gomez in anything else, so I can't tell if she a very good at playing a emotionally repressed Millennial or that is just how she acts. It feels forced at times, but the three play off each other well.

Yes, but it still would've been funny. Just reminding nate82 that interviewing someone doesn't mean we hire them. Staley might be Barry 2.0, but at least Staley actually has had a defense in the top half of the league.. The Bears decided to interview the original...

Or for the Bears to pick up Joe himself...

Personally when I read it the first time, I thought you were knocking him for only being a U-ILL video analyst scout (or whever oddball title he holds). It wasn't clear you were thinking he was more available...sounded like you were downgrading him for it.

I was wondering what they were going to do for assistant coaches... Just keep the same? Bring back Stotts? Good to see them balance out skillsets.

Sure, this is true. But it is also because we saw what he did (both NFL playing days and as DC) and that he did it well. I don't see anyone clamoring for Paul Chryst as one of our offensive coaches.

Seems like a poor outcome for the Brewers. Adding 1 year of control on Cease, but losing 4 years of control on Black (i.e. 2 years of Polanco vs 6 years of Black).

Or the refs...

I sign stealing easier in the NFL?

Boy, I misread that at first... I thought you said Nathan had better hair. 😅

I don't know... that is a lot of money for a guy that was dead last in hits, HRs, runs, and RBIs last year...

Yes, he seemed to back the wrong horse when he decided to stay at WI. But I don't think he had a realistic position at WI after Fickell was hired. Yes, Luke extended the olive branch, but I'd be surprised that included the DC position. Many coaches end up out of the league because timing doesn't work out and end up coaching with another team the next year. If Leonhard had coached elsewhere in college and has as successful of a defense wherever he was and put as many OLBs into the NFL as he has... yeah, I'd still be interested. He was always a smart player that outperformed his abilities. Seems like he is able to do the same as a coach too. That is the thing that makes me interested in him as a coach.