Roderick

I believe his "excuse" was that Maddox didn't want him pitching inside and after he got sent down, he said screw it I am going to pitch the way I want and did much better after that.

I am making a couple of assumptions when I recommend exercising the option. 1. Players salaries are going to start blazing right past inflation again - making $5.5M the ballpark for a guy like Looper that is aging but makes every start. 2. The Brewers won't be able to get a #2-#3 type starter that is relatively inexpensive and under control for at least two years for what I feel they are willing to trade away without tacking on substantial minor leaguers that I assume Melvin won't ship away. 3. I assume the Brewers won't give Hart/Gerut the CF job and will either have to spend some of their chips on trading for a cheaper CF or resigning Cameron which basically uses up the $90M Brewers budget. Has anyone seen anything regarding MA going higher on the budget? Now if you feel that salaries aren't going to go up in the tight 2010 free agent starting pitcher market at least 15% or you feel that Hart, Hardy, etc have more trade value and/or that Melvin is willing to ship away some of his top 10 prospect(s) in a trade or you assume the Brewers will up the budget to sign a FA or go with a cheap CF then I fully agree not to exercise Looper's option as we will know that we have someone better. I would make one more comment to be bantered about. If they re-upped Looper and afterwards signed/traded for a better pitcher, they could have Looper take over over for one of Villy/McClung in the pen. Cutting either would save $1.5-$2M. If Looper was in the pen he would be able to push harder knowing he only was only going 2-3 innings instead of 5-6 innings and probably do better that what he has shown this year. So while Looper would be overpaid for a bullpen job (his $5.5M cost versus the $2M) , you could consider that $3.5M extra as insurance that the Brewers don't get anyone better via trade/free agency, while providing an upgrade on the spot starter role. Agree or disagree? Side question - how much insurance are teams usually going to be able to get on a player? If I am developing what I see as the Brewers budget, how much do you think they will get on a payoff for Riske? I assume they probably have half of the salary covered. But that is just a guess.

At a fraction of the cost.

Once again, the number to be used for analyzing the cost should be $5.5M since the Brewers would have to pay a $1M to not pick up his 2010 option. And if you are complaining about that money, I'm sure $1.0M, or 17% of that amount must be substantial also. I assume the Brewers will have to decline or exercise Looper's option before they will be able to realistically know if they will be able to find a better starter via trade or FA. Since that is the case, my vote would be to lock up Looper and then see what you can do as an improvement. If we proceed via trade, it is possible the other team would take Looper back to fill the starter they traded away. A Hart, Looper and one of our better minor leaguers to find a "better" starter that is under contract for at least two years.

Actually if you consider he has a $1 million buyout if the Brewers want out, his effective cost to retain him is only $5.5 million. And I agree that he needs to be retained just to insure that the Brewers have some semblance of a starting pitching staff next year. If for some reason, Melvin is able to acquire better starting pitchers through free agency or trades, they can move Suppan and/or Looper into the pen for the last year of their contract in 2010 (or Looper can be included in said trade).

I'm hoping and assuming that will be the case. The Brewers should be targeting pitchers that will be here at least two years. The Brewers are going to need to replace a combination of: Suppan (team option won't be exercised), Bush (free agent), and Looper (assuming the Brewers pick up 2010 option) and possibly Parra (if he doesn't improve) after 2010. And I am not as confident as some on how many starters the Brewers can count on from the minors for the 2011 season.

Cameron was definitely worth his salary the last couple of years, but we are talking about next year. We need to take into account the league supply/demand for a 37 year-old CF, the Brewers personnel concerns and how those concerns can be met by Melvin's budget. I'd offer a contract for $7M with $1M for 125 games played. If that doesn't do the trick, I would take my chances with another alternative and assuming that is cheaper be able to use that money plus other resources to assist in acquiring a #2/#3 type starting pitcher.

I don't know, Molitor found ways to get injured batting and running the basepaths.

If the Brewers offer Kendall arbitration and he accepts (without the Brewers having some sucker lined up for a trade), you can put me down in the "fire Melvin" category. They better make sure that there is an understanding that he isn't going take arbitration, and why would Kendall committ to anything before he has to?

I sure hope we don't offer arbitration. I like Cam, but I don't want to be paying Cam $11-$12M for 2010. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but that is my guess on the amount. I don't think anyone is going to offer him that as a FA, so he would accept arby and the Brewers won't be getting any picks. As for Cam's OBP, how much of that is derived from how bad the #6,7,8 hitters have been this year? I think Cam has received his share of intentional, unintentional walks this year because of the dropoff in hitting. If you put him at leadoff, he isn't going to be getting that quantity of walks to keep his obp at .356.

Actually I don't think Florida has a state income tax. Since you pay the income tax by where the game is held, when half of your games are in Florida that is quite a bit of state income tax saved. A very big thing for a free agent looking for the most dough.

Personally I wouldn't mind Dunn on my team, but it sure seems like Dunn has limited value to most the GMs in baseball or he wouldn't have lasted so long in free agency and then end up signing with Washington. Whether that has to do to his defensive positional limitations/DHing or something else I don't know.

He is making $10M this year. Wouldn't he get a raise in arbitration with his abover average play? If so, I don't think he would be worth that much in 2010, which is why I wouldn't offer arbitration, as he would probably accept (unless the Yankees tell him through channels that they are going to go more for a single year or go multiple years in free agency).

Well if the team we trade him to doesn't sign him longterm, I'm assuming he would be a type A free agent and bring them in two picks. So in my mind it would be one year of JJ and two comp picks. But I also don't feel you can get a #2 type starter for that either, unless as someone said that pitcher is overpaid even for a #2. And if the Brewers are taking on that type of salary, that would probably take away all of Melvin's flexibility for other trades or signings.

Since the Brewers claimed him when the Reds put him through waivers, that probably initiated more serious discussions than the Reds were prepared to have before July 31st.

I always fear that Weeks is going to end up with a full case of the Steve Sax/Blass yips. So if through roster and budget management the Brewers end up with Weeks in the OF and Lopez at 2nd, but better elsewhere on the roster it wouldn't bother me at all.

Why would it be bad to offer arby to Kendall? Because he would accept it and get a lot more money from the arbitrator (assuming Kendall didn't put in some ludicrous amount for himself), using their comparables and rules, then he would get as a free agent. My guess is that if Kendall put down $4M an arbitrator would favor him over any lesser Brewer offer. Whereas if the Brewers let him go, they could resign him for less as a free agent (if they really want him back). Maybe I am wrong on the arbitration history, if that is the case someone should correct me. But after the Brewers lost quite a bit of money on Claudio Vargas (after going to arby and then releasing him after finding no takers), I doubt Melvin goes down that road again. I can't believe there would be any team in baseball that would pursue Kendall too hard and I (and so should Melvin) would be willing to bet on that.

I haven't read alot of the minor league board, so this has likely been covered. Did Melvin/Jack Z ever say they drafted hitting more than pitching, feeling that hitting had less of a bust %? If that was the case, then it would be on Melvin's shoulders to flip hitting for pitching somewhere in the timeline before the lack of pitching reached crisis levels at the major league level (which was about seven weeks ago) Has anyone done a study on how many positional versus pitching prospects become a starter in the majors from the first few rounds of the draft?

According to BFNet's salary page they do. I would think that Melvin would like McGehee's minimum salary for the next couple of years to help his budget and he will be looking to trade Hardy and trade/let go Lopez or move Weeks to OF.

I would pay someone quite a few million to take Hall's $8.5 2010 contract for a bag of mushy, rotten, disease-ridden minor league practice balls.

There is no way the Brewers offer Kendall arbitration.

Kendall is already paid for this year. Kendall is not signed for next year, and there is no way the Brewers (or anyone) are going to pay him $4M in the future. I forsee him signing a Counsell type deal ($1M) to return to Milwaukee when no one shows any interest in him during the offseason. Which wouldn't be bad if the manager would have the sense to have him split time with Rivera/Salome/Lucroy.

I'm not chiming in on the Cameron vs Melky debate - but just this statement. If we have a lower payroll one year, we may not get bonus points, but that money does stay with the Brewers in their equity / retained earnings / cash reserves (whatever you like to call it). It isn't like that money is lost, and could be spent in some future year and allow the team to spend more than their revenues if needed. It isn't like MA is an owner that is keeping all the surplus and wouldn't spend that money if it is needed to put the team into the playoffs.

::: We need Jack Z back ::: At first I read this as we need Zack Jackson back. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I really like your entire post here. Looking back the best move would have been to trade Hall forIs it my imagination, or wasn't the talk back then that you couldn't trade Hall because he had just signed a home-town discount deal (yes, I thought the deal was considered this at the time) and to trade him right away would have made it harder for the Brewers to get any more such deals from future players. Maybe it is just the old-timers disease implanting these memories.