I could put this in any trade thread but I look at trades involving prospects to expected value akin the JosephC's trade value analysis. Expected value states that a 80% chance of something worth 5 "points" (4) is better than a 10% chance of 20 points (2) and 25% chance of 6 (1.5). Yet if either of the smaller chances hits, the actual results favors the worse odds. If the chances of Binelas or Hamilton being impactful are static, does the actual results change whether it was a good or bad trade? If I found 10 bucks on the street, was it a good decision to pocket the money instead of playing the lottery, whether I won or not?