Funketown
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Everything posted by Funketown
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They're weak hitters, but they aren't even in the same league as Betancourt or Kendall at this point.
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The possiblity of a WORLD series.
Funketown replied to Thurston Fluff's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I would think that out of 100 games against the Japanese champions, the MLB champions would win about 70. Just looking at the stat comparisons of players going from Japan to the US (Akinori Iwamura, Kosuke Fukudome, Kei Igawa, Ichiro Suzuki, Daisake Matsuzaka, etc.), it wouldn't surprise me if the true level of play in those leagues is somewhere around AAA ball. I know Baseball Prospectus has looked at this for the Cuban league, and argued that the level of play there is similar to A-/A+. Does anybody know if they've done the same for the Japanese league? -
Kansas City is also two elite hitters away from this group.
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This would be fabulous. At this point, I seriously doubt Big Mac could hit a beach ball with a canoe paddle. *Insert classy joke here/*
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That's one heck of a deal for the Mariners. Even being extremely conservative, and projecting his arby totals as follows, Year 1 (2010): $4MM Year 2 (2011): $6MM Year 3 (2012): $8MM those three years would put him at $18MM for his three arby years. You'd have to figure, unless the wheels completely fall off, that he would be able to gun for a big money deal after that. Maybe I'm missing something. Do arbiters typically undervalue defensive performance? Maybe Gutierrez would just rather have the $20.7MM than risk an injury that would take him out of baseball in spring training next year. Either way, I'm sure Mariners fans will be happy to have him patrolling center field for the next four (five, depending on the option price) years.
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Holliday to Cards, 7 years $120 million
Funketown replied to WisconsinSportsRule's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This deal will run until he is 37 years old. Given Holliday's skill set, I find it hard to believe that he isn't worth at least $17MM for the bulk of those seasons. As Brewers fans, we just gotta hope they aren't able to get a hometown discount on Albert. Otherwise, it could be a long seven years of Holliday/Pujols. -
Huh. You gotta think he'll struggle to find playing time there, no?
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Yeah, but they already have an expensive 3B on the roster. So they paid that not for Beltre, but for Beltre's value minus Lowell's value. Lowell over the past three seasons has seen his WAR go from 5.3 to 3.2 to 1.2. Beltre has been from 3.0 to 4.1 to 2.4. So let's say Lowell would have been a 2 win player for them this season and Beltre will come in and be a 3 win player. $10 million for an extra win is hardly a tremendous pickup. They need to shed at least around $5 million of Lowell's $12 million salary in a trade to make this worthwhile. I do think that when analyzing moves for Boston, it isn't really fair to use the typical $4-$5 million per win. Because of where they stand, each additional victory is more valuable for them than for just about any other team. Just throwing a number out there, I would guess a win for Boston would be worth more like $6-$7 million given their team and their position in the league. However, given that the 30 team market sets prices, whether or not should pay that much for a win is up for debate. That said, given what we know about the Rangers trade, I don't think it's fair to consider him a 2-win player this year. Even if he won't be worth $9MM to the Sox this year (not saying he won't, this all depends on Lowell's status), that $5MM option is certainly attractive. Though of as a 2 year, $14MM deal, I think the odds are that Beltre puts up at least 3-4 additional wins for the Sox.
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Committing 5/25 to Chapman is a huge risk to a team like the Brewers. I'm not much of a prospect guy, but from what I've heard, the level of play in the Cuban league is likely somewhere between A- and A ball (mainly per BP)l. Sure, he's a phenomenal talent that may someday win a Cy Young, but that is a huge sum of money for a guy who walked 62 batters in 118 innings last year. That said, I know little of his mechanics, nothing about his coaching, and nothing about his injury history. I just think it's probably better to let someone like LAA or BOS take a run at the guy.
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If I recall correctly, that was the 2006 season where there was a lot of excitement coming off the 81-81 2005 season. I still remember going to Opening Day and hearing a WTMJ sportscaster calling a 90-win season. I guess he was just a couple seasons early.
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This is a solid little signing for the Cubs. I'm not familiar with him, so I don't know why he's struggled to play in the past (whether injury or opportunity), but I would think he would be a 2-win player each year, maybe dropping off a bit towards the end. Hard to see how this signing could go wrong, but this is the Cubs. Either way, this isn't a big deal.
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Have the Brewers improved this offseason?
Funketown replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Yes. If the offense had done the same thing with a 5 ERA pitcher like Looper, the team would probably lose 28-29 of those 30 games. I for one would rather lose 25 games than 28 games. -
Have the Brewers improved this offseason?
Funketown replied to paul253's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Roughly speaking, I would say that Gomez is a 1.5 win downgrade from Cameron, Escobar a 1 win downgrade from Hardy (assuming Hardy regains some, but not all, of his form), Zaun + ? a 2 win upgrade over Kendall + Lucroy and Wolf a 1.5 win upgrade over Looper. I would say the bullpen is a .5 win upgrade over last year. Any way you slice it, I think it's hard to argue the team has significantly improved this offseason, but it would also be hard to argue that they've become significantly worse. I would bet this team projects to somewhere between 80 and 85 wins, which is about what they projected as last year. In this division, I think they certainly have a shot at the playoffs. -
Mets Sign Jason Bay, 4yrs/$66M guaranteed
Funketown replied to crewcrazy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My gut reaction is that this is an overpay. I don't think Bay projects to be much more than a 3-win player for the next four seasons, as he is already 31 years old. Unfortunately, this will lower the price it takes for the Cardinals to reel in Holliday. I don't see any other suitors for him, unless someone is lurking (C'mon Royals, you know you want him!). -
I don't see the point of Quinlan. In the past three years, he has been absolutely horrendous at the plate, posting OPS's of .652, .637, and .614, despite facing more lefties than righties. The only thing that Quinlan has proved is that he is incapable of handling major league pitching. Chone projects Heether at .247/.341/.384/.725. Chone projects Quinlan at .251/.302/.372/.674. I guess I just don't see the upside.
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I would say by definition this is impossible because a perfect pitch would result in the indended result of the pitcher, strikeout or double play ball etc. If the the ball is hit for a HR it was not a perfect pitch obviously. You cant ignore the mental aspect of hitting and the fact that a batter may be looking for a certain pitch in a certain situation. If he guess exactly what you are going to throw then you threw the wrong pitch.That is called results oriented thinking and is exactly the type of thing you want to avoid if you ever want to understand a subject. I don't mean just baseball, pretty much anything you ever study. I have seen a hitter chase a slider in the dirt and still manage to hit it over the fence, there was nothing wrong with the pitch. Sometimes you are going to do the right thing and get a bad result.Agreed. This is similar to thinking that because a drunk driver made it home safely through a blizzard while driving on the wrong side of the interstate, his driving must have been good.
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I'm not going to criticize the Brewers for not getting Vazquez, but I think that oversimplifies it a bit. Vazquez was one of the best pitchers in the game last year, and probably projects as a 3.5 ERA guy. Wolf probably projects as a 4+ ERA guy next year.
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I would have to agree that Chavez is probably a bit higher rated than Dennis. At 20 years old, he put up a slash line of .283/.346/.474/.821 with 21 HR's in A ball. I would think he'd be somewhere between 15 - 25 in Toronto's prospect rankings, although I won't claim to be familiar with their system.
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My one pet peeve with announcers has always been "Pitcher X is really doing a good job keeping the ball down in the zone" during good starts, and "Pitcher Y is leaving the ball too far up in the zone" during bad starts. Another one of my favorites is watching games on TBS with their ball tracker (is this thing as accurate as PitchFX?), and hearing them criticize a pitcher for leaving a ball over the plate when it's in the corner of the strikezone.
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That's a very interesting read. I think that further supports the notion that a lot of what we believe we see, in terms of pitch quality, when watching a game is based on the outcomes of those pitches. Kind of like how a Gallardo fastball down the pipe on a 3-2 count is a great pitch if it's a called/swinging strike, but a mistake if it gets hammered. Same pitch, different result, yet we hold each pitch in a different regard. That said, this whole idea of context and situational pitching is so difficult to understand. Wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of research done on this topic in the near future.
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I'll just reiterate that this really depends on the PTBNL. Morrow certainly has significant upside over League, and I think we've all learned that Jack Z. rarely gets fleeced. Perhaps he knows something about Morrow that we don't realize.
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After a quick glance at the numbers, only Aroldys Vizcaino looks like a big loss for the Yankees. Only 19 years old, but in 42 innings (10 starts) in A-, struck out 52 and walked 15. Melky we all know, and Dunn looks like a solid mid-level prospect. This rotation will be solid, to say the least: 1) Sabathia 2) Vazquez 3) Burnett 4) Pettite 5) Joba/Hughes
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I think it depends on how the comparison is made. When analyzing a potential move for the Brewers, a pitcher's value above Jeff Suppan is a huge part of how valuable that player would be to the Brewers. Signing Jason Marquis would essentially move Suppan to long relief, and Marquis to the 5 spot, so from the Brewers' perspective, a comparison should be made, whether or not their pitching styles are similar.
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I've never really seen anything worthwhile on the subject of career years, but I would guess that on average baseball players put up slightly better numbers in their contract years than other years. There may be something about players working harder, etc., and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. The reason I think you'd see a slight improvement in numbers in the contract years is that many of these 'contract years' are the players' sixth or seventh full seasons, which are typically when the player is in their prime, and should be producing at their highest level regardless of contract year. I don't have anything formal to back that notion up, but I'd be willing to bet it holds a little weight. As for the classic Adrian Beltre career year, which is the one I always think of, I don't that it being a contract year was what drove that performance. Heck, if Joe Mauer had been in his contract year last year, a lot of people probably would have called it a career year (Yes, I know how absurdly good Joe Mauer is at playing baseball, but his 2009 season was unbelievable).
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The problem with this idea that players have high BABIP's because they get "hit hard", and throw meatballs, is that when watching a game, we subjectively determine within our minds whether or not a player is being hit hard or is tossing meatballs.