Personally I don't understand why more players don't sign guaranteed deals rather than waiting for FA. If you could have one of the following opportunities, which would you take: ($25 million with probability 1) or ($50 million with probability .7, $20 million with probability .20, $500,000 with probability .10)? I'd take the first without blinking. But, I suppose when it comes to values in the $10+ million range I'm quite a bit more risk averse than professional athletes tend to be. Greinke is laboring a bit today against the A's. His total pitching line with the Angels is now 16 IP, 12 ER, 8BB, 14K.