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Warning Track Power

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  1. I expected excellent defense and about a .240/.330 AVG/OBP slash with ~20 HR. At ~14% of the season completed, his offense (.195/.244) has been much lower than I anticipated.
  2. A guy I would love to get (and yes he is expensive) would be Nicholas Castellanos. Yes, it would add more OF but I think Garcia is gone after this year and JBJ may be as well if he doesn't opt-in. 29 years old this year, 2 years for $32m after this season (he can opt-out after 2021 as well), and would be what I think we HOPED Avisail would be.
  3. Maybe I am unrealistic but he's not at all doing what I expected. I expected, and still do, that he will end up being pretty good offensively. Shaw looks vastly improved over 2019 when his swing got majorly uppercut heavy (see Hiura this year as an example). He has a good eye, good discipline and has played amazing defense. I think he is struggling as well due to being sandwiched between a slumping Garcia and Hiura in the lineup. They got Wong back at the top, now get Yelich and Cain back in the lineup to stretch it further and I think Travis sees better pitches. Get that AVG up to the .250 range and he is MORE than serviceable.
  4. Does anyone have any insight on JBJ as to whether he is a vocal/silent person on the field and in the clubhouse? He seems to be very, very quiet on the field and doesn't appear to be a very vocal person at all. Not a lot of personality on the field or in the dugout ala Cain. I am wondering if that is just him or if he is in a funk and still getting used to being in Milwaukee and not Boston.
  5. As someone who has dealt with a mother with a serious form of cancer, I know you cannot focus on the day-to-day stuff in any way close to normal. Let alone being half a country away while she goes through the hard stuff that comes along with treatment (chemo, radiation, etc). While I think Keston has some real challenges he needs to work on (toe-tap timing thing, uppercut swing that seems to be getting more pronounced) the reality of life has to be having its own impact in its own crappy way.
  6. When do we find out if Nottingham cleared waivers or if he accepted his assignment?
  7. I am not even a little mad about this game. It was bound to happen sooner or later. What I am upset about is having a guy like Lindblom, who is quite obviously a failed signing, continue to pitch meaningful innings. He is responsible for the game getting out of hand. 3 hits and a walk is pure garbage coming out of the bullpen.
  8. I don't think Vogelbach or McKinney are going anywhere anytime soon. They are both post-hype prospects that needed more time to blossom and appear to be doing so in Milwaukee. They aren't being counted on to carry the team but to play the roles that they are currently in. McKinney as the 4th OF type and Vogelbach as the DH/backup 1B/PH. I wouldn't love giving McKinney a starting gig in the OF at the expense of losing Garcia or JBJ after 2021 but if he continues playing the way he is, I wouldn't mind him in a soft platoon once Cain leaves or retires after 2022. I would give Big Dan a bit more time at 1B to see if he can get some consistency at the plate and I anticipate this occurring when Wong comes of the IL.
  9. I know this isn't the pessimism thread but today has all the markings of a Brewer beatdown. Series already won, two Aces holding a top 5 team in the sport to 1 run in games, bench players coming up huge, getaway day and their stud SP coming back today. I hope I am wrong but I see the Padres taking it out on Houser today, jumping out early and winning a 7-1 type game. Like I said, not pessimistic but the Brewers already exceeded expectations in SD. Great job Crew.
  10. I heard Uecker referring to Keston Hiura during the Pirates series as Kessie, which was a new one to me.
  11. With Yelich and Cain hurt, the Brewers should be going with a platoon of Taylor/McKinney in LF, JBJ in CF, and Garcia in RF. Obviously, Garcia and JBJ will need days off but that would be the approach I am taking right now if I am Counsell. Stick with the hot bat be it Taylor or McKinney. Similarly, until Wong is back, I would be playing Vogelbach more at 1B and Hiura more at 2B. Robertson and Peterson offer nothing in the way of a bat and while his defense is god awful, I think Hiura needs to be in the lineup daily and Vogelbach deserves more time.
  12. Burnes won’t be a FA until before his age 30 season. Woodruff before his age 32 season. I would think Woodruff would certainly have some incentive. I’d offer them Woodruff something that would add 3 years on the backend and an additional $60m. Burnes is trickier as he’s looking at $200m if he continues pitching like this. I would offer 6 years $120m beginning next year. Probably both unrealistic but it is where I would start.
  13. Robertson can go away any time he wants. He’s just not good. Take Peterson with you.
  14. Getting a little tired of the “these guys are human narrative” from Brian Anderson. They make millions of dollars. I’m human too. If I failed like this, I’d be fired.
  15. This is the one that comes to mind for me. I remember it being in the 7th and speeding home to try and catch the rest of the game because, well, history. Only for Overbay to break it up in the 8th and almost lose it in the 9th. 8-0 going into the 8th and the Brewers won 8-7, behind a 6-run 9th for Toronto.
  16. Provided the injury bug stays away from them more than it has in the first two weeks of the season. If Yelich, Cain and Wong injuries don't linger, and nothing happens to Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, I think this team has the potential to be better than the 87 wins I pegged them for at the beginning of the season. Especially if the Brewers have the 5th most runs scored in the NL.
  17. I like Bradley's game immensely. I think we all expected him to not be "elite" with the bat but could live with a .240-.250 AVG and .330-.340 OBP. Based on everything I read from Red Sox writers, he is prone to massive slumps and long hot streaks. It appears he has started with a massive slump. Patience must be had in this situation. Give him some time and history says he will get there. It does make me wonder if he will opt into the second year of his contract regardless of how well he hits the rest of the year.
  18. I agree about the upside play being the preferred option. However, at least Vogelbach has some plate discipline. Even with his .118 AVG, he has 3 walks in 20 PA, good for a .250 OBP. By no means good but compared to Hiura, who has 3 walks in 40 PA and a .225 OBP, it seems decent especially considering Vogelbach isn’t missing middle-middle pitches. Hiura needs some serious refinement in the minors. I’d be looking for another 1B option as I think Hiura needs time to get his swing together.
  19. I guess this leads us to a larger issue then. The Garcias, Narvaezs, JBJs, Wongs, etc. have all had years well above and well below 100 for OPS+ which, when averaged, gets you to league average hitters. The benefits could be enormous if they all put together one of their well above 100 OPS+ years or the challenges could be enormous if they all have one of their off years. Perhaps identifying players with less extreme outcomes is the approach the Brewers should be taking going forward. It leads us to see games like yesterday where the Brewers only score twice, as opposed to the 3 games prior where they seemingly hit everything.
  20. I don't think it will look particularly silly. My original post (OP) in the thread clearly indicates Counsell is a solid manager and I don't want any other person managing the team. I think a majority of the posts have indicated the same thing. That does not absolve him from being critiqued. The critique I referenced in the OP really indicates that Counsell has fallen more into a traditional manager (Williams 8th, Hader 9th inning guys) than the innovator he was at the beginning of his tenure and a lack of answers for a stagnant offense. Sure some of it can be chalked up to rule changes like the 3 batter minimum, but 3 hot games of hitting does not cure all ails. Now, if the Crew continues to hit the way it has over the past 3 games (which I hope it does), I will gladly eat crow related to Counsell, Haines and Cruz. Similar to the crow most of us have eaten in the past two years regarding Chris Hook. Keep in mind, no one was advocating for Counsell to be fired, only that he shoulder some of the blame related to the Brewers not hitting. Let's see Hiura, JBJ, Urias, and Cain get their averages above the Mendoza line before we declare the Brewers hitting issues have been solved. I would still like for Counsell to be more the innovator he was in 2017-2019 timeframe, but I understand the changing of the rules of the game may limit that innovation a bit.
  21. I’m ready for Jace Peterson to be out of options for playing for the Brewers. He’s just not good.
  22. Knebel is in for the 9th for the Dodgers in a game they lead 1-0. I hated this trade when it was made and I hate it even more now.
  23. Garcia OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020 89 89 138 95 113 Wong OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020 93 84 109 97 108 JBJ OPS+ in the 5 years prior to 2020 119 118 89 92 90 Even Yelich is more like the hitter he was in Miami now that the ball instead of his first two years here and nobody in their wildest dreams expected Yelich to do what he did in his first two years here. Let's not act like we have a bunch of guys with great or even good track records of offensive production. If you want to use OPS+ for the previous five years, the five-year average for Garcia is 104.8, Wong is 98.2 and JBJ is 101.6. Yelich, even if he is the player he was in his 5-year career in Miami, is 120. Couple that with Narvaez 4 years prior to joining Milwaukee is 106.7. If the 2021 Brewers could get 98.2 OPS from #1 (Wong) in the order, 120 from #3 (Yelich), 104.8 from #4 (Garcia), 101.6 from #5 (Bradley) and 106.7 from #6 (Narvaez), and couple that with a top of the rotation with Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta and a backend of the bullpen with Hader and Williams, I think we are looking at a Division championship team. Heck, if you offered me those OPS right now for all those players, I would jump at the offer.
  24. And if they do not return to career norms, then there is something else going on here. If most of your guys are underachieving their career norms and have well-established track records in the cases of Yelich, Garcia, JBJ, Wong, then there is obviously an approach issue for the Brewers coaching staff. I just don't think there is any other explanation. Yelich goes from a .290 hitter in Miami, to Barry Bonds in 2018-2019, to Khris Davis in 2020? That makes no sense.
  25. Some stats for us to digest: Brewers NL Ranks (15 teams) AVG: .172 (13th) OBP: .243 (14th) SLG: .267 (15th) OPS: .510 (15th) OPS+: 45 (15th) Ks: 81 (1st) BB: 17 (13th)* technically should be 14th as Washington has 11 but has only played 3 games Overall, absolutely terrible one week into the season.
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