Oxy

I thought so...but after reading djocto's posts I am no longer sure. i was under the impression that if nobody claimed them we could keep them (revoke putting them on waivers and save face by not releasing/outrighting) those players. But if nobody claims them and we are forced to remove them from the roster that would be a bad look. I guess we'll all find out in the next few weeks.

Boy, that press has really gotten some run around here. Stick Hiura back in the prospect list and evaluate Grisham fairly and the system looks A LOT better. If Zack Brown and Corey Ray can finish out the year strong that would help a lot too.

This organization really needs Grisham or Ray to be above average players. We are going to have holes all throughout our batting lineup in the coming years. Stearns will need to hit on some more Shaw/Thames/Aguilar types of acquisitions. The pitching staff is young and going to get younger in the next couple of years.

Gamel Yelich Grandal Moustakas Thames Shaw Grisham Arcia

I don't know but it would be kind of silly. I suppose you'd gain a little bit of knowledge about who thinks the contract might be worth it in the off-season when trading is allowed--but any claiming team could say they primarily wanted the player/contract for THIS year so the trade value changes drastically in the offseason. I get what you are saying though.

Glad you agree that he’s hamstringing us. Bringing up worse contracts does not help your argument and doesn’t mean that Braun’s contract isn’t hamstringing us. Well, people keep saying something like 1.0 WAR is worth $8M or something like that. Obviously it changes year-to-year, but Braun is probably a 1-2 WAR guy who is "worth" a bit more than that due to pedigree, legacy, still playing for the team that drafted him, etc. So he's slightly overpaid. I would agree with Ely though and say that his contract isn't really hamstringing us...

So, would you rather have 1923 Ruth hit in front of 2004 Bonds or vice versa? I bet 2004 Bonds would not be 2004 Bonds If 1923 Ruth was hitting behind him....but protection is a myth?! Hmmm...

This is a great thread that I somehow missed years ago. I've asked multiple times if those Tango run expectancy (and win expectancy) charts have data from years that were not 1999-2002. Obviously the more runs on average that will be scored decreases the importance of each individual run, and all "small ball" strategies are focused on scoring single runs. 1999-2002 was probably the greatest run producing times in history, so maybe those charts are...wrong?!?!? Maybe they are RIGHT, I don't know but using them as gospel truth doesn't seem quite right to me. Nobody has provided me or this site in recent years with better numbers though.

So, when nobody is on first base and it's early in an inning (0 outs or 1 out if the heart of the order is coming up), then OBP/BB is king. When 1st base is occupied, SLG is king (and a no-grounders approach. Ks or pop-ups are no biggie either). When guys are on 2nd or 3rd and 1st base is empty, AVG/contact is king, Ks are BAD and BB is neutral, depending on who is on-deck (does that guy hit a lot of ground balls? If so, a BB is BAD) Nothing anybody didn't know in 1900. Although modern statistical analysis is probably still catching up to these sorts of "sequencing" ideas. It's almost like you want speedy, high OBP guys at the top of the order, high SLG guys (and maybe high K guys, whatever) in the middle of the order and stick whoever is left (probably your good defensive SS, C and P) at the bottom of the order. Get a good hitting SS and C and you've probably got a good offense.

The problem with trying to fit all these things into one or a few different stats is that it's really, really hard to quantify most of these things. Or to get big enough sample sizes. Or to weigh their importance against eachother. I'm not saying you can't make stats like these, and indeed there are stats out there that try to do this: Baseball Prospectus' Deserved Run Average (DRA) is one. It adjusts for park, league environment, batter (quality and handedness), catcher, umpire, defense, temperature, pitch types and anything you could imagine. And it does have a better predictive value for future ERA than FIP, and of course far better than ERA itself. (However I don't think that'd go over well on this website, as it has Oliver Drake as the 4th best pitcher on the Brewers behind Perez, Hader and Peralta, making the Drake haters seriously question its validity ) A stat like FIP is simple, easy to caclculate, has good predictive value, and is easy to understand. High K% and low BB% tends to give up fewer runs than the other way around. It does a good job of isolating what the pitcher alone can control. But doesn't account for how the pitcher interacts with the park, the weather, the defense or quality of contact. Adding these things onto the stat is the hard part; even something seemingly as simple as quality of contact. Is it exit velocity alone, or based on EV combined with launch angle? How does in which direction it's being hit factor into it? And is a hard ball hit into the shift any better or worse than a weak one away from it? Average EV or median? Distribution of artibtraily decided soft/medium/hard %? What I'm getting at I guess is that there's a choice between precise but limited (FIP) or imprecise but extensive (DRA). DRA is already good, and will likely improve. But there's the problem of not really understanding what the number means. It's like a black box spitting out a number, but you don't know how you got there or what it's based on even if it's accurate. To take an example: Knebel has a 3.38 ERA, 4.38 FIP. Houser has 1 ERA, 2.76 FIP. They have the same DRA (3.20 vs 3.29). Now in that particular case it's likely to do with leverage/quality of batter and HR/FB rate (Knebel isn't going to continue having 40% of his flyballs go for HRs, nor is that going to stay at 0% for Houser), but that's because we know these other stats. It's an improvement, it can at a glance compare pitchers both in results and with some predictive value. But since you still need other context to understand it, it doesn't offer as much beyond (x)FIP as you'd hope. So it's a bit like the greatest supercomputer in the universe spitting out "42" as the answer to the great question about the meaning of life, the universe and everything. Great, but what is the question? This was an excellent post, but basically ignored my post. Statistics ^mostly^ treat every AB the same and judge a player according to that standard. However, pitchers themselves DO NOT treat every batter the same way. Sometimes, they pitch to contact and sometimes they try to strike a guy out. It all depends on the score and the situation. Some guys are better at manipulating this situation than others (If you are up by 5 in the 3rd inning, giving up a leadoff HR is ACTUALLY better pitching than giving up a leadoff BB. If a guy is trying to K a guy, he is probably more likely to BB a guy as well...hmmm....think about those concepts and then think about the validity of FIP and K/BB ratio...)

There is no reason to "pull back" or "revoke" an unclaimed player as there is nothing to pull back from...If a player is waived (but neither claimed nor DFA'd), 'tis as if he was never waived at all...The MLB has mostly guaranteed contracts because...well...that's the way it's always been since Curt Flood and Marvin Miller and Arthur Goldberg opened the gates to free agency.

So, in order to guarantee a player's eligibility for the postseason roster, he needs to be on the 40-man roster on August 31st. However, players within the organization but NOT on the 40 man roster on August 31st ARE eligible to be granted a waiver by the commissioner to be added to the playoff roster provided there is an injury to a player ON the 40 man roster and there is space available on the 40 man roster for said player. Players NOT in the organization on August 31st are ineligible for the postseason roster. Period.

Only if he is also Designated for Assignment...the two often go together, but not when revocable waivers are being discussed--which in the past often happened in August but no longer. Also, in that case the waiving team owes the player the remainder of his guaranteed contract.

I knew a man, his brain was so small He couldn't think of nothing at all Not the same as you and me He doesn't dig poetry He's so unhip that when you say ????? He thinks you're talking about ????????? Whoever he was The man ain't got no culture But somebody has a .275/.343/.443 line at Biloxi. Not great, unless he's a CF or something like that. Can steal a few bases and hit a few dingers.

And death shall have no dominion. Dead men naked they shall be one With the man in the wind and the west moon; When their bones are picked clean and the clean bones gone, They shall have stars at elbow and foot; Though they go mad they shall be sane, Though they sink through the sea they shall rise again; Though lovers be lost love shall not; And death shall have no dominion. Has anybody noticed perhaps our most productive hitter in our Minor League system who is under 28 who can legally drink? I just recently found out...

There must be some other issues other than whatever Joe Blow fans like us know. If he was 26 or if he was out of options then I see why he might slip through, but a 23 year old? I don't get it.

Depends how he performed. He wasn't stellar in his rehab assignment...there was no hurry to bring him up at the time. I hope they decline the option for JJ and then bring him back in the Spring on some kind of smaller contract.

Zack Brown-he of 5 scoreless starting appearances last year- is currently shutting out the Fresno Grizzlies through 5 innings, his first start this year without giving up a run. Hopefully this starts a nice run for Zack. Outduelling him is Logan Ondrusek....the 34 year old with an 8.81 ERA in AAA this year.

Which is better than a town full of arsonists.

Yep. And while we didn't draft Zavolas, but he's looking pretty good too. Most of these guys are performing at the A+ level or lower, but the sheer volume of guys performing well should mean a few of them can sustain it and become quality MLB pitchers. Unfortunately they are all 2+ years away. Other than Turang and our catchers (and Grisham and Hiura) we have no position players who look to contribute at the same time though. We'll need to hit on a couple of Hiura like college bats in the next couple of drafts and then fill in from there with FAs and Shaw/Aguilar/Thames kinds of acquisitions.

I'd love to go after Wheeler and Miley. There are probably lots of other guys like Miley (or Chacin before last year) who would be fine too. Cole, Strasburg and MadBum are going to be bad values.

Yelich, Hiura and Grandal are really letting this team down!

Gio Gio was not going to get through the Cubs order again. Albers was fantastic. Great move. Guerra was the questionable move when you've got Pomeranz out there-or maybe even go to Peralta for 2 innings.

This actually could be the case, but it is obviously by organizational design with cooperation with the Front Office and every piece of meaningful statistics that have been gathered. Anderson is a disaster 3rd time+ through the order, and most other starters aren't much better.

Do you remember last year? That was only...1 year ago...