Eye Black

So on the one hand it’s 4-0, and the odds of the Brewers coming back to win are low. On the other hand it could easily be a much larger deficit for the Brewers right now.

I’ll admit this is absolutely cherry-picking, but Urias’ stats over the past month (since April 12) aren’t terrible: .262 BA / .337 OBP / .464 SLG / .801 OPS That includes 5 doubles, 4 home runs, 10 walks, 17 RBI. His BABIP since then has been .327 (he had a .111 BABIP over his first 9 games of the season).

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Now only three more solo home runs away [from a tie]!

Hiura has 4 doubles in his first 2 games in Nashville, so that’s good to see at least.

This is a well reasoned and well written post despite my disagreement with the position. I do not believe that Stearns is infallible in his decision making and agree that right now the trade is heavily in favor of the Padres. That is undeniable. What I will say is that I also remember JJ Hardy coming up to the Majors in 2005 as a 23 year old kid and barely being able to hit. In fact, looking it up on Baseball Reference, through his first 70 games in 2005, in 223 PAs/191 ABs, he slashed .194/.297/.574. Hardy went on to be a good ballplayer for the next decade. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hardyjj01&t=b&year=2005 In comparison, Urias is also 23 and, as a Brewer, has 241 PAs/212 ABS and a slash of .217/.304/.620. The guy Hardy was traded for did something quite similar in his first two seasons in Milwaukee. Gomez slashed .238/.288/.666 in his first 576 PAs/522 ABs as a Brewer https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml Is Urias going to be the next Hardy or Gomez? Who knows? My point is solely that some players take a bit more time than others and Urias may just be another one of those guys that takes a season or two to figure it out before breaking out. I just think the microscope, spotlight and lack of patience from fans are on all Brewers right now due to atrocious offensive start and more so than normal on Urias due to Grisham's play in San Diego. I don’t think waiting to judge trades of young players is as much a defense mechanism (at least for me) as it is understanding that players often aren’t what their first few hundred MLB plate appearances suggest. Brett Lawrie looked like he could be a future Hall of Famer after his first MLB stint with the Blue Jays. Michael Brantley was a below league average hitter his first three MLB seasons (and nearly 1,000 plate appearances). Lots of players become much different hitters as their careers evolve. That doesn’t mean I’m ecstatic with the trade at this moment in time or would even “bet” on Urias to be the better player, just that I’m not willing to form some concrete opinion about it at this point. I would also add that while Grisham has been a much better defender than I ever anticipated he could be, I don’t think we have any idea what he’s going to do offensively over the long haul. He started last season incredibly hot for the first 30 games, and then was pedestrian the rest of the season. He attacks fastballs, but struggles against good changeups. Of course that approach could certainly change over time as well. 2020 first 30 games: 29 GP, .271 BA, .381 OBP, .533 SLG, .914 OPS, 7 HR, 30 SO 2020 last 30 games and playoffs: 36 GP, .215 BA, .316 OBP, .346 SLG, .662 OPS, 3 HR, 45 SO This year he’s been pretty good again so far: 29 GP, .288 BA, .363 OBP, .486 SLG, .849 OPS, 5 HR, 33 SO

I thought Taylor got that one initially. I feel like my ability to judge home runs at Miller Park/AmFam Field is regressing.

Brett Phillips just had a walk-off base hit against the Mets... so there’s something fun.

Pittsburgh (4.40 ERA) and Minnesota (4.63 ERA) were worst among their previous opponents.

I’m sort of torn on which of these teams to watch tonight.

If the Brewers play in a World Series over the next few years it seems highly likely it’s going to have to be with an average offense and lights out pitching in both the rotation and bullpen. For the longer term I think the goal would be to find more balance between the two, but having dominant pitching probably gives you a slight advantage over counting on elite hitting in a playoff format. I mentioned this in the off-season, but there have been three teams since 2010 that have been slightly below league average in offensive runs scored and still played in the World Series, the 2010 Giants, 2014 Royals, and 2015 Mets. There have been two times since 2010 where both World Series participants finished outside the top ten in runs scored, the first was 2012 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Tigers (#11), the same year the Brewers finished 3rd in MLB in runs scored. The other was the 2014 World Series with the Giants (#12) and Royals (#14). In most years the teams that win the World Series are in the top 10 in runs scored, as you’d expect.

Adrian Houser: Batter (Braves) vs Pitching Stats Drew Smyly: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats Statcast Game Preview for Braves-Brewers Statcast Game Feed for Braves-Brewers

Yes, today’s Brewers game is available for

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Tonight’s home plate ump, John Libka, is typically a very good ball/strike umpire. He had an incredible game in his last time behind the plate: LINK Following up on this, Libka is actually incredibly good at accurately calling the strike zone. He is only 33-years old and isn’t even a full-time umpire nor a member of the Umpires Association. Just listened to them talk about him on the Effectively Wild podcast, and it’s sort of fascinating to hear and see the data of how good this umpire that nobody knows and gets shuttled back-and-forth to Triple-A has been since 2017. Here’s a link to the podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 1692. They discuss Libka starting at the 43-minute mark. Also, that podcast page has a bunch of links to data showing the most accurate umps by ball/strike calls including this Google Doc spreadsheet of umpires lifetime accuracy.

Hader at 24 pitches with only one out and two on isn’t ideal.

I thought the same thing. That’s a rare spot to see one end up, even in BP.

Well that was certainly an opportune time to pinch run for Vogelbach.

The dropped third strike rule is so dumb... but I’ll take it.

Ah, got it. My buddy’s kid is sitting on the other side so I was worried he did something stupid.

While I don’t really care about pitcher “wins”, it is pretty crazy how many dominant performances from Brewers pitchers this year haven’t resulted in a “win” for the starter.

Maybe I’m not paying close enough attention, but what’s bothering you behind the ump?

He’s out!

Tonight’s home plate ump, John Libka, is typically a very good ball/strike umpire. He had an incredible game in his last time behind the plate: LINK