Eye Black
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Free Agent Signing Thread (Non-Brewers)
Eye Black replied to Eye Black's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I started a separate thread for the Bauer signing since it's likely to be a well discussed topic. -
Per Heyman: Bauer decision will surprise some folks. But he’s going home and to a champion. #Dodgers
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Per Morosi: Kolten Wong’s 2-year, $18 million deal with Milwaukee includes a $1MM signing bonus and $7MM salary this year, of which $5MM is deferred to 2023 and 2024, source says. The deferment could allow the #Brewers to add an additional player for 2021. Per McCalvy: Pretty significant details here. Per JP, looks like "only" a $3 million hit to the Brewers' payroll for 2021.
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This is sort of counter to what's been mentioned here, but whether the Dodgers sign Bauer or Turner it will put them over the luxury tax threshold for 2021 since they are currently just $5 million shy of it. Teams are disincentivized from going over the threshold for several consecutive years (because tax penalties continue to rise significantly with each consecutive year), but over the short-term once you've gone over the luxury tax threshold anyway you might as well "blow it out of the water" so to speak. You wouldn't want to do long term deals because at some point after 2-3 years over it you'd definitely want to reset the luxury tax penalties to the lower rate (although that makes a HUGE assumption that it'll even continue to be a part of the next CBA). Long story, a little shorter... the Dodgers may not want Turner to be the reason they slightly go over the luxury tax next year. Especially with other good options in their system and their other player contracts escalating in coming years, there is some incentive to not go over the luxury tax this year (but again this is assuming the new CBA continues on with a similar luxury tax format). If they do get Bauer then they've already exceeded the luxury tax limit anyway, so at that point the only additional penalty to signing Turner is a 20% "penalty" tax on Turner's contracted AAV for 2021. For the Dodgers I doubt that extra cash for this year would be overly problematic.
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The Cardinals freed up a roster spot, so it’s a win for them in that sense. The only way they were going to move Fowler was by either eating his salary or finding a trade partner trying to move a bad contract of their own.
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Justin Turner may still be a long shot for the Brewers, but if we’re looking for some reasons (albeit very small) for positivity: - Turner and his wife RV’d around the Midwest this off-season, and at one point were in Wisconsin. - Turner’s wife grew up in Indiana, and presumably still has family there (although she’s a Bears fans, unfortunately ). - Turner and Daniel Robertson work out at the same facility near LA. - The Dodgers could be spending a ton of money (> $30 million AAV) on Trevor Bauer very soon. These are minor things and likely all meaningless. If the Brewers get him it will be because they offered a superior contract to the Dodgers and Braves.
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Devin Williams changeup was the final pitch of an at-bat to 67 batters last year. Of those 67 changeup pitches, only two ended in a base hit. Here’s the first player to do it... Baseball Savant Video
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Yes, some of the more recent Kyle Seager discussion can be found HERE.
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Thanks as always for doing this reilly! In remembrance of the Power 50 I'll stretch my list a bit... 1) Brice Turang, SS 2) Garrett Mitchell, OF 3) Mario Feliciano, C 4) Hedbert Perez, OF 5) Ethan Small, LHP 6) Antonie Kelly, LHP 7) Freddy Zamora, SS 8) Aaron Ashby, LHP 9) Eduardo Garcia, SS 10) Carlos Rodriguez, OF 11) Jeferson Quero, C 12) Tristen Lutz, OF 13) Zavier Warren, C 14) Micah Bello, OF 15) Hayden Cantrelle, SS 16) Jackson Brayan Chourio, SS/OF 17) Luis Medina, OF 18) David Hamilton, SS 19) Tyrone Taylor, OF 20) Corey Ray, OF 21) Dylan File, RHP 22) Jesus Parra, OF 23) Clayton Andrews, LHP/OF 24) Max Lazar, RHP 25) Jheremy Vargas, SS 26) Alec Bettinger, RHP 27) Bowden Francis, RHP 28) Victor Castenada, RHP 29) Thomas Dillard, 1B/OF/C 30) Payton Henry, C 31) Nick Kahle, C 32) Joey Wiemer, OF 33) Pablo Abreu, OF 34) Gabe Holt, 2B 35) Cooper Hummel, OF 36) Zach Brown, RHP 37) Abner Uribe, RHP 38) Joe Gray, OF 39) Justin Topa, RHP 40) Angel Perdomo, LHP 41) Quintin Torres-Costa, LHP 42) Thomas Jankins, RHP 43) Leo Crawford, LHP 44) Phil Bickford, RHP 45) Andre Nnebe, OF 46) Noah Zavolas, RHP 47) Brandon Ramey, RHP 48) Eduarqui Fernandez, OF 49) Je'Von Ward, OF 50) Justin Jarvis, RHP
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This season’s Brewers team has a chance to be one of their best ever in terms of run prevention (pitching and defense), likely also buoyed by the NL Central being expected to have mostly below average offensive lineups.
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I’m not sure the Brewers will be counting on him to start many more games than that. I think he’ll likely be out of the lineup against LHP starters more often than not.
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I don’t disagree with anything you said, but it’s still not going to stop me from daydreaming about the possibility for a couple more weeks.
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Bravo, that’s certainly an impressive prognostication.
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Jose Ramirez is one of the few players I wouldn’t blink at trading Hiura and the upper echelon of the minor league system to acquire. He would solidify this team as the legitimate favorite to win the NL Central and give them a chance to threaten a serious playoff run. With good pitching already in place and Yelich hopefully in the prime of his career, Ramirez would be the perfect addition for this roster.
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Reminder that in addition to some of the potential pieces mentioned the Brewers also have the #32 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft (likely to be bumped down to selection #33 if Bauer signs a multi-year deal) that they can trade as well.
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It’s a little funny to think that the team that’s been comfortable playing Mike Moustakas and Keston Hiura at second base now has one of the best defenders in the game at the position.
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Wong has hit well in Milwaukee during his time with the Cardinals, compiling a .855 OPS with a .373 OBP in 217 plate appearances at Miller Park, now renamed American Family Field. He showed overall improvement at the plate the past two seasons, compiling a .754 OPS, and is a factor on the bases as well (24 steals in 2019). Spray chart at Miller Park...
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The Brewers now have two of the second baseman listed among MLB Network’s top ten in baseball prior to last season (this is the 2020 list for 2B, not 2021):
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Bump since it appears the answer at the moment is indeed first base.
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2021 ZiPS Projections [Other Misc. Projections]
Eye Black replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Kolten Wong's projected stats this year from the various projection systems. ZiPS [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR 143 524 9 60 51 14 8.4% 14.7% .124 .301 .266 .345 .391 .316 96 2.2[/pre] Steamer [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR 126 537 10 65 52 14 9.2% 16.2% .130 .298 .260 .343 .390 .316 94 1.8[/pre] ATC [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 133 537 9 64 50 14 8.7% 15.3% .122 .300 .263 .343 .385 .314 97[/pre] THE BAT [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 126 546 10 69 48 15 9.4% 16.1% .127 .295 .258 .345 .384 .321 101[/pre] THE BAT X [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 126 546 11 68 48 15 9.3% 16.2% .126 .285 .250 .338 .376 .314 97[/pre] Clay Davenport [pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG WARP 496 441 58 120 21 3 10 46 40 71 10 .272 .353 .401 3.9[/pre] The Davenport system had the Brewers at 87 wins before the Wong signing. I would guess they will now be projected at 89 or 90 wins considering Wong's 3.9 WARP. -
Kolten Wong's projected stats this year from various projection systems... ZiPS [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ EV BsR Off Def WAR 143 524 9 60 51 14 8.4% 14.7% .124 .301 .266 .345 .391 .316 96 0.3 -2.2 7.9 2.2[/pre] Steamer [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ EV BsR Off Def WAR 126 537 10 65 52 14 9.2% 16.2% .130 .298 .260 .343 .390 .316 94 1.0 -2.9 3.5 1.8[/pre] ATC [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 133 537 9 64 50 14 8.7% 15.3% .122 .300 .263 .343 .385 .314 97[/pre] THE BAT [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 126 546 10 69 48 15 9.4% 16.1% .127 .295 .258 .345 .384 .321 101[/pre] THE BAT X [pre]G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ 126 546 11 68 48 15 9.3% 16.2% .126 .285 .250 .338 .376 .314 97[/pre] Clay Davenport [pre]PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG WARP 496 441 58 120 21 3 10 46 40 71 10 .272 .353 .401 3.9[/pre]
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If that would get him, I would make that trade immediately. Mario Feliciano is a prospect that hasn't garnered a ton of attention in publicly available prospect rankings, but I get the sense the Brewers (and maybe other teams and scouts) are fairly high on him. I'd probably rather give up one of the pitching prospects mentioned than Feliciano, but I get the sense a team that's done their homework would ask for Feliciano to be included.
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A wRC+ of 96 is roughly an average hitter, which maybe it's semantics but I don't consider that bad. You're also weighing in on his seasons that were 5+ years ago quite a bit, he's been pretty consistently adequate as a hitter the past 4 seasons and gets on at a good rate. Throw in his defense and he's a very nice add. Now would it have been better to use that money on 1B/3B? I think that depends on how the rest of the offseason goes. 2012-16: 2017-20: This is yeoman's work, thank you.
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I think Hiura along with Garrett Mitchell and Mario Feliciano would be something in the ballpark of what it might take assuming the Indians are into those players. One way to look at it is the Braves may be in a position to offer a package with Austin Riley and prospect OF Drew Waters, which would be a high bar for the Brewers to clear.
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With the news of the Kolten Wong signing I think it's at least fair to have a separate thread asking the question of what would it take to peak the Indians interest enough to consider moving Jose Ramirez? Reminder, Ramirez is amazing (elite switch hitter), not old (28 years old), and under contract for relatively cheap for the next three-years (~$33 million). This isn't someone the Brewers are going to even get a conversation started on with solely minor league talent (at least their minor league talent), it would likely take a substantial piece from the major league club (i.e. Hiura, Burnes, etc.) to headline a package. Thoughts?
