Eye Black

Done according to Jon Morosi: Kolten Wong and the Brewers have agreed to terms on a multiyear contract, source says. Ken Rosenthal was first to report the teams were in serious talks. Per Ken Rosenthal: Free-agent second baseman Kolten Wong in agreement with Brewers on two-year, $18M contract with a third-year club option, pending physical, source tells

I know Stearns made the comments about Keston moving to 1B yesterday, but I also wonder whether Hiura is possibly being considered as a potential trade candidate. If they were going to seriously make a run at someone like Jose Ramirez, then Hiura could be a good starting point for the return package the Brewers would need to put together.

Brewers reportedly in discussions with Kolten Wong. Per Ken Rosenthal: Brewers are in discussions with free-agent second baseman Kolten Wong, sources tell The Athletic. Not clear at this point whether a deal is close.

Yeah, that’s the lowest of any projection. Here are Yelich’s projected slash line from the various projection systems (from highest to lowest OPS): Davenport - .284 / .384 / .551 = .935 OPS THE BAT X - .287 / .389 / .541 = .930 OPS THE BAT - .288 / .389 / .538 = .927 OPS ATC - .275 / .386 / .530 = .916 OPS Steamer - .274 / .382 / .520 = .902 OPS ZiPS - .273 / .379 / .523 = .902 OPS PECOTA - .266 / .375 / .499 = .874 OPS To my knowledge THE BAT X is the only projection system that incorporates Statcast data.

The Rays are signing Chris Archer. One-year, $6.5 million. That trade continues to be an all-time backfire for the Pirates. I’ll forever remain convinced their five game sweep of the Brewers fooled them into thinking they were a contender.

A couple of interesting things from Baseball Prospectus' Blocked Players PECOTA Likes article today. First, one of the blocked players PECOTA really likes that could be a trade candidate: Seth Beer, 1B/DH, Diamondbacks [PECOTA Projections below] [pre]Player HR R RBI AVG OBP SLG DRC+ Beer 25 73 81 .258 .337 .462 122[/pre] Beer, in addition to having the most fitting name possible, is currently blocked by both Christian Walker as well as prospect Pavin Smith from getting time at first base with the Diamondbacks. Admittedly, the LHH probably isn't a great fit for the Brewers unless they truly don't trust Vogelbach to play 1B (or else the DH ends up happening after all). Another player that PECOTA likes is the Brewers very own left-handed hitting outfielder, Billy McKinney. The article author says among McKinney's top PECOTA comps are Alex Gordon and Alfonso Soriano. McKinney is projected for a .452 slugging percentage and PECOTA seems to be buying into his home run power. It's not the first projection system this off-season to think McKinney is an above average player, so maybe they're onto something we aren't.

Same thing (PECOTA projections) for the pitchers...

Sean Doolittle in agreement on a one-year deal with the Reds.

As this Jayson Stark article points out of the 240 players that were considered major-league free agents this offseason (or non-tendered in December) we now reach Groundhog’s Day with 148 of them still unsigned. Stark: The Strange but True free-agent winter of 2020-21 In other news, from Jon Morosi... Confirming: MLB will have 26-man rosters in 2021, except for doubleheaders, when the limit expands to 27.

From Rockies beat reporter Nick Groke: Dick Monfort was dead-set against trading Nolan Arenado to the Dodgers. So, mission accomplished I suppose, he really stuck it to Andrew Friedman...

The deal is official... Trade Breakdown Cardinals get: Nolan Arenado, cash considerations [reportedly $51 million] Rockies get: LHP Austin Gomber, INF Elehuris Montero, RHP Tony Locey, INF Mateo Gil and RHP Jake Sommers

Brewers’ PECOTA hitter projections (via Kyle Lesniewki):

Agreed, Paxton makes a lot of sense if the cost isn’t substantial.

If Brewers fans read just one thing about the possibility of Jose Ramirez, I hope it’s this post. It seems like the Reviewing the Brew authors did a disservice to Brewers fans yesterday by making it seem realistic the Brewers could acquire Ramirez with a couple of prospects and Corey Ray. It wasn’t close to reality, but now that expectation has been set for many.

Agreed, the Rays proposal is much more appealing. I do believe the rumor that the Brewers are looking for both major league talent and prospects in a Hader trade. I like a trade that includes Brosseau, but it could be argued the primary piece in that offer is Walls who is likely to be in the majors this year. It's also why I still think the Blue Jays make some sense. Rowdy Tellez is probably the most likely "major league piece" you could get from them, but packaged with some of their prospects could be enticing. The Padres I have a harder time finding a major league piece that makes sense. If they still had Ty France I think he would've been intriguing as a major league component to be added along with prospects, but that ship has obviously sailed.

I think it's probably the latter. I know we all want an amazing return in a Hader trade, but think of it in the context of if the Brewers were in the market for a reliever and bidding for Hader. Do you think there is any chance they would entertain trading players like either Burnes or Hiura to acquire a reliever (no matter how good)? That Rays trade proposal would be good value for Hader, IMO. Of course there is a perfectly good argument for just keeping Hader as well. I do agree that teams are likely to be a bit more desperate for a reliever at mid-season, but of course that also assumes the risk that Hader will continue to perform as one of the very best relievers in the game, which is obviously a high bar to stay above.

The problem with bringing up the Rays is that the Brewers don’t seem to be following the “Rays model”. To be clear, I’m not even advocating that they should be doing so, just pointing out that it doesn’t seem to be the path they’re going down. If they were attempting to mimic the Rays approach then they obviously should’ve never signed Yelich to the extension and we’d currently be following daily trade rumors for who he might be getting shipped to for his final two years under contract. The Rays have done a good job of hoarding young talent, but it’s come at the expense of continual roster churn. Focusing on acquiring a large quantity of young talent translates into a scenario where the sheer volume of talented players almost ensures they will produce good major league players at multiple positions. Sort of a high percentage way to make sure you stay competitive over the long haul. As for the Brewers, if they aren’t in a position to sign free agents then they probably need to pick up their trade activity. Over the past 12+ months (Jan 2020-present) here are the Brewers transactions via trade: August 31, 2020: Traded RHP David Phelps for RHPs Brandon Ramey, Israel Puello and Juan Geraldo December 2, 2020: Traded RHP Corey Knebel for LHP Leo Crawford The second of those trades reportedly came together in about 10 minutes. Over that same time period (Jan 2020-present) the Rays have made 16 trades. If the Brewers want to avoid signing high dollar free agents then I believe they need to get more active on the trade market. I know that’s probably much easier said than done, but at some point they have to decide which direction they are heading (forge forward with some acquisitions or be willing to take a step back to improve the odds of future success). I think part of the frustration currently is the unknown of which direction the Brewers are heading. The Yelich signing seemed to indicate they were going to try to put together a championship caliber squad. The lack of moves since that signing do worry me a bit, but I also haven’t given up hope for some moves on the horizon just yet.

Rumors that the Cubs have agreed to terms with former Pirates starter Trevor Williams, Twitter Link. EDIT: The signing now confirmed by Chicago reporter Jesse Rogers.

The Dodgers also have some potentially good future third baseman waiting in the wings like Edwin Rios and Kody Hoese.

...and don’t forget baseball should never have expanded into Denver. Great market, nice stadium but the environment dictates they’ll never have enough pitching to win it all The Rockies have never won the NL West. Obviously they’ve been to a World Series (and they have four playoff appearances), but over a full season they’ve never won their division in 28 years of existence.

Didi Gregorius back to Phillies on a two-year deal for $28 million.

From Mark Saxon: I heard an agent recently describe Rockies GM Jeff Bridich as the “worst communicator in MLB.” That seems to be a big aspect of this whole thing, amazingly. Reminder that the Brewers haven’t made a trade with the Rockies since December of 2004.

If the Brewers and Cardinals decided to co-op in 2021 they could compete in the NL West!

I don’t think it’s as easy as assuming hitting at high altitude into large outfield dimensions affects all players equally. On the flip side, I’m not convinced the answer is as easy as “look at these home/road splits” either. For years it’s been speculated that Coors might be benefiting some players significantly. Carlos Gonzalez was one such player. Others that were considered “safe bets” due to much lower split discrepancies have also fallen off after their career led them away from Coors. Troy Tulowitzki was traded during his age-30 season (this will be Arenado’s age-30 season) and he had always had solid road production. His stats in Toronto never really approached his success in Colorado even before injuries obviously derailed his career completely. I do think an argument can be made that in LeMahieu’s situation he ended up in the single best home park he could possibly hit in, Yankee Stadium. Anyway, for those curious about a deeper dive into how Coors may have positively impacted Arenado, this article from two years ago by former Brewers front office member Tony Blengino is intriguing: Rockies' Nolan Arenado Is A Star, But The 'Coors Effect' Has A Lot To Do With His $260M Contract I don’t necessarily agree with the entirety of the article, but I think it’s worth reading to understand some of the arguments for why the mile-high hitting environment may have had an impact on Arenado.

Alright, new plan for the offense... Trades: OF/1B Trey Mancini for 2021 MLB Draft Competitive Balance Pick and SS Freddy Zamora IF Eduardo Escobar for Victor Castenada and cash 2021 POSITION PLAYERS LF: Yelich (L) CF: Cain RF: Garcia / Mancini Backup OF: McKinney (L) 1B: Mancini / Vogelbach (L) 2B: Hiura SS: Urias / Arcia 3B: Escobar (S) / Robertson C: Narvaez (L) / Piña Lineup vs RHP Cain - CF Yelich (L) - LF Mancini - RF Vogelbach (L) - 1B Hiura - 2B Escobar (S) - 3B Narvaez (L) - C Arcia - SS Lineup vs LHP Cain - CF Yelich (L) - LF Mancini - 1B Hiura - 2B Garcia - RF Escobar (S) - 3B (or Robertson) Piña - C Urias - SS