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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Just for fun, I put the the nine players listed in tonight’s actual lineup in the Baseball Musings Lineup Optimizer using 2020 player stats only. It said the expected runs per game for the exact lineup they are going with today is 3.540 runs on average (again only based on the small sample size of the stats so far). The optimizer gave me the following as the best possible lineup (expected to average 4.084 runs per game): 1) Luis Urias 2) Christian Yelich 3) Eric Sogard 4) Keston Hiura 5) Avisail Garcia 6) Justin Smoak 7) Ryan Braun 8) Ben Gamel 9) Omar Narvaez It is probably worth noting the optimizer doesn’t take handedness into account, so it’s not going to sequence alternate L/R batters like many managers would.
  2. Eye Black
    No Brewers appeared in the #31-#40 spots. In the honorable mention section they listed 15 players that made the top 50 last year, but aren’t returning to this year’s list. So far through the first 20 spots that have been unveiled (#31-#50), 11 of them did not make last year’s list. That is a long winded way of pointing out that there are only four players remaining that didn’t appear on last year’s top 50 that will make this year’s version of the list. Regarding Hader, if you look at the Baseball Trade Values website list of all players, Hader ranks #85 overall. By comparison, Woodruff ranks #41 and Hiura ranks #43 for Baseball Trade Values. Having said that, last year the FanGraphs trade value exercise had a decent amount of variance from the Baseball Trade Values site. I think the differences are in part impacted by the methodology of each. They are similar in some aspects such as weighting the contracts and years of control remaining. The biggest difference as I understand it is the Baseball Trade Values site attempts to reverse engineer past trades/transactions to help set the market for future trade values, while the FanGraphs list does rely on their contacts across the industry as well as those with individual organizations to assist with drafting and reviewing their list. The latter is probably open to a little heavier dose of anecdotal feedback, but it’s also tough to argue with hearing feedback straight from the horse’s mouth.
  3. Eye Black
    Brewers face Maeda for the second time in less than a week. Tonight would be a good time for the Brewers hitters to improve on their combined career batting line against Maeda (currently .221 AVG / .270 OBP / .267 SLG / .538 OPS in just 74 at bats).
  4. Eye Black
    Corbin Burnes: Batter (Twins) vs Pitching Stats Kenta Maeda: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats
  5. Eye Black
    Most teams are more than 1/3 of the way through the season now and 12 teams are within 2 games of .500 (or at .500). Every playoff team currently would have a .500 or better record. The expanded playoffs are certainly going to make for a wild finish where several teams are within reach of a playoff spot heading into the final week. Can’t know for certain, but it appears like 31+ wins would likely be enough to secure a playoff spot.
  6. Eye Black
    For many years the FanGraphs Trade Value Series rankings were complied annually by Dave Cameron, followed by a couple of years with Kiley McDaniel (now of ESPN) taking the reins after Cameron took a job in the Padres front office. This year Craig Edwards has been tasked with continuing with the rankings. It’s an intriguing exercise that combines players perceived talent with team control and overall contract/salary owed to determine each player’s estimated value on trade market. They gather feedback from several industry sources during the process of compiling the list. It includes not just current major leaguers, but also the estimated trade value of the top prospects. The individual rankings are certainly debatable, but it’s a fun way to compare various top players. They have an honorable mention category followed by unveiling the top 50 in increments of 10. As they release each update I will link them in this initial post and list which Brewers are included. Honorable Mentions: Luis Urías; honorable mention list also included former Brewers prospect Trent Grisham #41 to #50: Keston Hiura (#46) #31 to #40: No Brewers listed #21 to #30: Brandon Woodruff (#28) #11 to #20: Christian Yelich (#15) #1 to #10: No Brewers listed
  7. Eye Black
    I’ve watched a decent number of Padres games this year (they’ve been my late night go to this season), and they are a fun team to watch. Tatis seems to come up with a big hit every time they need one. Overall, they certainly have a lot to be excited about with a fairly young team that has some legitimate talent. That being said, their fan base has been taking victory laps on the Grisham/Davies acquisitions as well as the Pham/Cronenworth trade (moreso the Cronenworth part of that latter equation). I’ve been taking notes along the way, and if Urías and Lauer ultimately outperform their trade counterparts, I will have enough material to start a Padres-centric “freezing cold takes” style account.
  8. Eye Black
    Some insight from Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto (the below text is from Jon Morosi)...
  9. Eye Black
    Watching Kevin Pillar hit a home run tonight reminded me to check his season stats... Through 18 games (70 plate appearances) he’s at: [pre]AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ .318 .357 .515 .371 133[/pre] Note: Tonight’s game is still on going so he’ll get another at bat.
  10. Eye Black
    No kidding. Last year this thread (with the exact same subject title) was posted on the morning of Friday, September 6th. Starting with the game later that evening the Brewers went on to win 18 of their next 20 games and clinched a playoff spot. The first three victories of that streak were against the Chicago Cubs as well. This year the thread went up following the game on Thursday, August 13th. Since then the Brewers have run off three consecutive victories at Wrigley Field. This thread might just be the exact piece of motivation this team needed.
  11. Eye Black
    [sarcasm]Blasphemy! Someone MUST “win” the trade![/sarcasm]
  12. Eye Black
    I disagree with Rock, that’s an error IMO. Brewers keep doing their best to give the Cubs easy base runners. Edit: It was indeed scored an error.
  13. Eye Black
    The Cubs load the bases without putting a ball in play. This doesn’t seem like it’s going to end well. Edit: Need a ground ball in the worst way. Edit #2: Or a strike out. Edit #3: Sigh.
  14. Eye Black
    Just went up. Yep, now a 199 wRC+ in 2020.
  15. Eye Black
    Urias and Arcia are the Brewers best hitters. Don’t @ me.
  16. Eye Black
    Luis Urías comes to the plate this inning sporting a 157 wRC+ in 2020. Yes, that’s only 17 plate appearances.
  17. Eye Black
    I really like his approach as well. He had a career .397 OBP in the minors over six seasons. If he proves to be a high OBP hitter going forward I think there is a lot to be excited about in potentially having him, Yelich, and Hiura as the top three hitters in the lineup.
  18. Eye Black
    From Adam McCalvy... Oof, that's a tough 0-2 call from plate ump Jordan Baker, Two pitches later, Souza hit a two-run double.
  19. Eye Black
    Yes
  20. Eye Black
    According to Baseball Reference he has started a game at leadoff one other time in his career (in 2015). He was 2-for-3 in that game. Edit: Found that game boxscore vs. Pirates on April 18, 2015
  21. Eye Black
    Fun Braun batting line to share with the lefty Lester on the mound today. Per Mike Vassallo: Ryan Braun, who went 2-for-3 yesterday, is now batting .323 (112-for-347) with 19 HR and 71 RBI in 93 career games at Wrigley Field.
  22. Eye Black
    Josh Lindblom: Batter (Cubs) vs Pitching Stats Jon Lester: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats
  23. Eye Black
    Corbin Burnes has been announced as Tuesday’s starter versus the Twins (and Maeda).
  24. Eye Black
    Reminder that the trade deadline is just over a couple of weeks away and players must be on the 60-man roster in order to be traded. Teams can trade PTBNL, but those deals wouldn’t be finalized until the offseason. Will be interesting to see if any of the late additions to the 60-man end up involved in trade discussions.
  25. Eye Black
    I’ll give Claudio credit, those last two at bats didn’t look comfortable at all for the Cubs hitters (Happ and Bote).
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