Eye Black

I agree with you.

Eno Sarris of The Athletic put together three proposals for the Brewers offseason in his article, What’s the plan in Milwaukee? Included in his second overall proposal that included multiple moves was this Josh Hader trade... Trade Josh Hader and MiLB OF Tyrone Taylor and MiLB SS Brice Turang for Boston OF Mookie Betts (a one-year, $21 million difference) FWIW, I don’t care for this trade idea.

Not to be lost in this trade is noted FanGraphs enthusiasts Tommy Pham is united with former FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron.

The Baseball Trade Values website has the trade breakdown as listed below. The additional years of control likely makes Renfroe more valuable in their system, but for a team like the Padres in win now mode I can certainly understand why they would value Pham more highly. Padres Receive [pre]Pham 14.9 Cronenworth 5.5 Total Value 20.4[/pre] Rays Receive [pre]Renfroe 19.0 Edwards 14.5 Total Value 33.5[/pre]

From CBS Sports... The Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres have agreed on a trade, per multiple reports. The deal would send outfielder Tommy Pham to San Diego while outfielder Hunter Renfroe and shortstop prospect Xavier Edwards to the Rays, as first reported by both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. Passan later reported the deal has been finalized. Both reports indicate a prospect would head to the Padres from the Rays to complete the deal. Pham, 31, would give the Padres an above-average everyday outfielder who is a very good all-around athlete. He hit .273/.369/.450 with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 68 RBI, 77 runs and 25 steals last season for the Rays. He's played mostly left field, but has also handled center at times through his career. If he is dealt to the Padres, Pham would slot in left field everyday and would be a nice fit in the two-hole between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in the lineup. The Rays would likely be dealing Pham because he's set for a big payday in his second year of arbitration -- MLB Trade Rumors projects $8.6 million -- and is eligible for free agency after 2021. That's just how they do things. On the flip side, Renfroe is only projected to make $3.4 million and he's under team control through 2023. Renfroe, 27, hit .216/.289/.489 with 33 homers and 64 RBI last season. He would likely slot in the five-hole in the Rays' lineup for next season at this point. As for Edwards, he's the No. 5 prospect in the Padres system, per MLB.com. He was a supplemental first-round pick in 2018, 38th overall, out of high school. Edwards, 20, hit .322/.375/.396 with 34 stolen bases between Class A (77 games) and Class A-Advanced (46 games) last season. He's been playing both second base and shortstop. Short term the deal is a win for the Padres and they do need to start winning. Edwards is the long-term wild card here. There's certainly a way to view this deal as a possible mutually beneficial one down the road. Edit: Another prospect is involved, but this one is going back to the Padres (per Dennis Lin)...

MLB Network brought up a good point in how significantly Robinson Chirinos improved his defensive numbers last year with the move from the Rangers to the Astros. If the Brewers can help Narvaez make similar steps towards defensive competency then this deal should prove to be an absolute steal. Robinson Chirinos Example 2018 (Rangers): 108 games; -11 DRS; -11.8 Framing Runs; 10.2% Caught Stealing; 0.3 fWAR 2019 (Astros): 112 games; 3 DRS; -5.6 Framing Runs; 21.1% Caught Stealing; 2.3 fWAR

I think there are a few important points missing so far. 1. Player payroll is only a fraction of the Brewers overall financial picture. 2. Some organizations don’t make a profit on paper because they adjust their bond/debt lending payments owed towards both past and on-going capital projects to negate their cash surplus (to maximize amount paid towards debts). 3. Haudricourt and Nightengale don’t know the Brewers finances, and even if they knew for certain the team “operated in the red” they don’t even know what factors are included in the accounting for that claim. Do the teams owners and investors receive annual payouts that are accounted for among the teams expenses? To give a better idea of how little we know here are some things that are likely factored as part of the Brewers revenue and expenses (not a complete list by any means). Revenue Streams MLB Revenue Sharing: In Major League Baseball, 48% of local revenues are subject to revenue sharing and are distributed equally among all 30 teams, with each team receiving 3.3% of the total sum generated. As a result, in 2018, each team received $118 million from this pot. Teams also receive a share of national revenues, which were estimated to be $91 million per team, also in 2018. (Link) Regional Network TV Partnership Agreement MLB Advanced Media Rights Agreements: MLBAM payments appear to vary, but remain healthy. We know that the sale of their digital content spinoff, BAM Tech, resulted in distributing each team a lump sum of $50 million in 2018 when the company was sold to Disney for over $1 billion. Ticket Sales Suites & Premium Seating Sales Parking Sales Sponsorship Agreements Merchandise Sales: Used to be a third party retailer, I believe the team took the operation in-house. Concessions and Catering: Operated by third party Delaware North, Brewers take is likely a 50% split of the revenue less expenses. Facility/Event Rentals Concerts/Special Events: By owning and operating Miller Park the Brewers have a six figure take home even after accounting for expenses and promoter/talent payouts every time they host a concert. Expenses Player / Coaches Salaries, Bonuses, and Benefits: Includes more than just the MLB team obviously. Team and Staff Travel: Plenty of expense throughout the organization, but the big ticket cost is chartered flights and buses. Hotels Team and Media Meals/Catering Operational Costs: So much goes into this category that I am certain most people would be truly astounded to know the actual number. Just to list a bunch of random things that go in this category (I’m missing plenty): Equipment, Marketing/Promotions Costs, Ticketing, Telecom (including Cell Phones), IT Infrastructure / Software, Signage, Printing, Office Items/Supplies, Portable Restrooms, Facility Amenities, Heating/Cooling, Water, etc. Facility Maintenance Costs: With an aging retractable roof I am guessing Miller Park is much more expensive to maintain. Also, a lot of cost is put into maintaining the playing surface, training areas, etc. The building likely also requires a significant amount of annual maintenance. Capital Projects: They have been pretty consistent about updating areas of the facility. Recently Concessions and this year the Outfield Seating Area have been major projects. A new scoreboard/video board (including relevant technological upgrades) falls in this category as well. Audio and stadium lighting are a couple of other big ticket items when replaced. Debts / Loans / Bond Payments Full-Time Organization Staff Salaries and Benefits: 100’s of full-time employees within the organization. Part-Time and Outsources Staffing Costs: Includes game day staff (parking attendants, ushers, security, law enforcement, etc.) as well as outsourced services such as Custodial staffing. Other Miscellaneous Considerations Minor League Infrastructure Costs Carolina Mudcats: Includes teams overall operating revenue and expenses since they are property of the ownership group. Maryvale Spring Training Facility: Significant capital project to renovate/build complex. Annual operating costs. Taxes: MLB teams are obviously not tax exempt. Paying Investor Dividends: This is seemingly a big unknown. Do the Brewers annually distribute profits to investors? If that is the case the Brewers could be “in the red”, but a contributing factor could be distributing millions of dollars to their investors. As I mentioned in the open, this is far from a complete list, but hopefully conveys the point that there is a multitude of factors impacting the Brewers financial breakdown and the details of the accounting are much more important than a generalized “in the black” or “in the red” assessment.

I fairly confident Mancini would cost much more in terms of acquisition value/cost as compared to Dom Smith.

Just a complete guess, but wondering if this is the trade where the Brewers say goodbye to Corey Ray?

Martín Maldonado Vogt? David Frietas

Narvaez had 22 home runs last year. According to Baseball Prospectus, T-Mobile Park (home of the Mariners) had a home run factor of 92 for left-handed bats last year (100 is league average). That ranked 24th in baseball for left-handers. Miller Park only ranked 14th with a home run factor of 99 for LH hitters which surprised me a little.

The Mariners acquired Narvaez one year ago for Alex Colome who ended up being stellar in the White Sox’s bullpen this year. Curious to see what the one year return on investment is for Seattle here.

2018 offensive stats comparison... Grandal: .246 BA / .380 OBP / .468 SLG / .848 OPS / 119 OPS+ / 121 wRC+ Narvaez: .278 BA / .353 OBP / .460 SLG / .813 OPS / 120 OPS+ / 119 wRC+

Well with the Brewers acquisition of Omar Narvaez it’s worth pointing out that you didn’t need to look any further than the first two posts of this thread to know what direction the Brewers would ultimately go.

Narvaez is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so the Brewers will have him under control through the next three seasons. He appears to have had some real value so I assume the return is something of substance. Rosenthal reporting at least one minor leaguer.

That’s a yes for me. Obviously it depends on how much talent you would also have to give up in return, but McNeil would have a transformative effect on the Brewers lineup, in my opinion.

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons. It’s hard to believe the Wilpons made it this long after having $500+ million invested with Bernie Madoff when he was busted. Then to make up for it having to reportedly borrow $430 million against the team and $450 million against SNY in addition to a $43 million annual payment on Citi Field. They were reportedly paying more than $100 million annually just to cover debts before paying down any principal. The change in ownership stake could be a game changer for the Mets. Edit: Steven Cohen will obviously be a much more stable influence for the Mets. **Moderator voice**...

MLB SLG: 2017- .395 2018- .420 2019- .525 Here were his home/road splits last year... Home (87 PA): .241 BA / .310 OBP / .430 SLG / .741 OPS Road (110 PA): .316 BA / .391 OBP / .602 SLG / .993 OPS I predict he would do very well as a hitter at Miller/AmFam Park.

[sarcasm]Would have been tough for the Brewers to sign both him and Strasburg anyway, IMO.[/sarcasm]

From CBS Sports yesterday, MLB hot stove: 10 teams that could take advantage of Mets' desire to unload salary and trade for Dominic Smith. The Brewers make much more sense to me than most of the other teams on that list, and they are definitely overstating the Brewers “tight budget” this offseason. Now that the Brewers have cleared a bunch of payroll space this is the perfect example of how payroll flexibility can be used to their advantage in adding talent. It seems like the acquisition cost of Dominic Smith paired with Jed Lowrie should be very low. Maybe something along the lines of Tyrone Taylor or C.J. Hinojosa, and an lower level org arm in return?

Regarding the topic of roster turnover via non-tenders, I found these nuggets from Rosenthal’s most recent article at The Athletic interesting... As noted by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, teams non-tendered 40 arbitration-eligible players on Monday, up from 27 last year and 19 the year before. So, while top free agents such as catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas are faring well, the addition of so many players to the market undoubtedly will crush those in the middle and lower classes, similar to what has happened in recent offseasons. Clubs are using the system to their advantage, knowing that by flooding the market they can get better deals than they would in arbitration. Top free agents effectively are on islands, no longer dragging the rest of the salaries upward. The solution for the players is to negotiate a new economic system, something they will attempt to do in the next round of collective bargaining. The current labor agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2021.

I think I would prefer Hyun-jin Ryu over Wheeler even with the 3 year age difference.

The Dodgers reportedly met with Anthony Rendon. If they signed him I’m not sure what exactly that would mean for the final season of Justin Turner being under contract? On MLB Network they speculated this evening that the Dodgers may move Justin Turner to 1B and trade Corey Seager (two years remaining under contract) if they sign Rendon (presumably to play Lux at SS).

Good catch, thanks for the correction.

I have a feeling the Mets are desperate to unload some payroll in order to make moves this winter, so this seems like a possible match with the Brewers.