Eye Black

Interesting news from Craig Mish... I’ve learned MLB is moving the First-Year Amateur Baseball Draft in June to Omaha, Nebraska. Omaha is also home to the College World Series. And from Kendall Rogers... BREAKING: The 2020 MLB Draft is moving from New Jersey to Omaha. The draft will be held Wednesday, June 10 through Friday, June 12, the eve of the NCAA College World Series.

If they were willing to trade the back end of their rotation by attaching LHP Jordan Montgomery in order to move J.A. Happ’s contract then it would be a very intriguing possibility for the Brewers to consider.

I don’t think anyone here is suggesting they know more than the front office, but I think it’s fair to question his arm strength based on what we do know (and have seen). Also, if we weren’t allowed to speculate on things we didn’t have as much info as the front office on this would be a pretty boring place to frequent. Lastly, I am not even saying it’s impossible, but we’ve also never seen any indication that they think he is a viable third baseman. Edit: Statcast does publish average velocities for MLB catchers (listed under the “Arm” category at this Link), obviously catchers are throwing without the benefit of a hop towards their target. As SRB mentioned, I am certain Statcast has that data for all fielders, but they are seemingly selective about sharing that data unless it’s used to show the velocity of some insane throw from the outfield.

With the Cardinals reportedly pursuing him, I can’t think of an easier set of battery mates to dislike than the duo of Bumgarner and Yadi Molina would be.

Well! Case closed on my extremely radical position of "none of us should pretend to be smart enough to know whether the front office thinks Hiura could move to 3B or not" I really don’t want to be in the middle of this one, but I’ll point out it has been documented Hiura maxed out throwing 77 mph across the diamond at PG events in high school (obviously prior to his elbow injury) which was considered well below average for an infielder heading to play D-1 college baseball. It is my understanding anything in the low-to-mid 80’s for a professional 3B is considered below average to fringe average. I believe an infielder playing on the left side of the diamond is expected to be able to make throws greater than 85 mph. I would be surprised if Keston had the ability to throw near that velocity.

I have a suspicion they don’t envision Hiura as a second baseman long-term. I think they ultimately move him to either LF or 1B, or a longer shot that they trade him.

Here’s what I find funny about the attention on CEO salaries... In 2011 Bud Selig made $18.4 million. Only 12 players in baseball made more than him that year. By his final season (2014) as Commissioner Selig was making at least $22 million, but there are reports he actually made more than $30 million that year. His MLB retirement deal pays him more than $6 million annually for the rest of his life. He has made an incredible amount of money to serve on behalf of the owners during his career.

One concern I would have about paying that high of an AAV over 7 seasons is that Strasburg will be ten years removed from Tommy John surgery this coming season. I am not an expert on it by any means, but I was under the impression a reconstructed elbow is believed to have a life span for holding up to the stress of major league pitching. If he required a second surgery at some point they will likely be stuck paying $35 million a year for a pitcher they would probably have to convert to a reliever. Certainly an added risk to an already risky long-term deal. Edit: Strasburg has thrown 1,370 innings since his Tommy John Surgery. Among the hundreds of pitchers who have had the surgery, only seven major league pitchers have ever exceeded 1,500 innings pitched after a Tommy John surgery, and only four have exceeded 2,000 innings pitched. Here is the current post-TJ surgery innings pitched leader board (only accounts for MLB innings)... [pre]David Wells 3439.0 Tom Candiotti 2725.0 Tommy John 2544.2 A.J. Burnett 2206.2 Darren Oliver 1915.2 Anibal Sanchez 1895.1* Jose Mesa 1517.1 Matt Morris 1475.1 C.J. Wilson 1430.1 Ryan Dempster 1423.0[/pre] *Active

With that type of contract it is doubtful they will also sign Rendon.

The more I look at available options the less I think the Brewers are going to spend big in free agency on pitching. I think the next time the Brewers acquire a #2/3 caliber pitcher that isn’t homegrown it will be via trade. I also don’t think the front office has nearly the sense of urgency to add top end starting pitching as the fan base does. As frustrating as it can be at times, I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up waiting until mid-season to possibly add an upper level pitcher.

Via Jon Morosi... Source: #BlueJays have inquired on free agent Travis Shaw. While pitching is Toronto’s focus, the club is also open to adding a corner bat.

I agree that they need a lefty starter, but Lauer is an interesting choice in that respect since he has pretty stark reverse splits. He has allowed a .886 OPS against left handed batters over his short career so far (including allowing a .914 OPS against LHBs last year). It will be interesting to see if opposing managers go with standard platoon-type lineups against him (as they would against a typical LHP) or whether they just stick with their lefty batters.

The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with right-hander Junior Guerra on a one-year deal that includes a club option for a second year, first reported by Kyle Lesniewski of Brew Crew Ball and confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will pay Guerra $2.55MM in 2020 along with a $100K buyout on the club option, making for a $2.65MM overall guarantee, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Guerra, who had been arbitration-eligible for the first time, was non-tendered by the Brewers, meaning that he will remain under team control for three more years. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $3.5MM in arbitration. The 34-year-old Guerra adds another option to the Arizona bullpen, as well as an arm that can provide multiple innings. Guerra emerged as one of Craig Counsell’s most reliable options in the second half of 2019, tossing 83 2/3 innings in 72 games with Milwaukee, including 23 appearances in which he recorded more than three outs. A converted starter, 2019 marked the first season in which Guerra was deployed as a full-time reliever, and he delivered solid results, logging a 3.55 ERA and 4.52 FIP while striking out 77 batters and walking 36. He’ll join a bullpen that graded out as firmly middle of the road in 2019, providing some much needed depth to Torey Lovullo’s arsenal. MLB Trade Rumors Link

Jon Heyman: “Rumor that Marcell Ozuna is signing with the White Sox with announcement coming Monday is not true, I’m told. White Sox appears to be concentrating on pitching at the moment.” Hector Gomez in response: “I trust in @FrankCastillo22.”

Jim Bowden’s Picking a Winter Meetings move for all 30 teams predicts that the Brewers will sign Dallas Keuchel for 3 years, $42 million. This isn’t really a rumor, but more of a guess/speculation on Bowden’s part.

Agreed, while I’ve become familiar with 100’s of players over the past few years, I haven’t spent one second looking closer at Flores ever since he became an internet meme in the Brewers-Mets trade that wasn’t. Appreciate the deeper dive, and looks like an intriguing possibility.

He meant $84.7 million is where they are currently projected with the 32 players already on the 40-man roster, so he was just pointing out the good news is they have plenty more to spend this offseason. He wasn’t implying they weren’t going to spend more than that number. I updated the original post to remove the ambiguity.

A few tidbits from Ken Rosenthal’s article this morning, Signings and stories that could make for decadent drama at the Winter Meetings... He mentions the following big name players as candidates to be traded: Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor and Josh Hader. He says that salary and lack of years of control will factor into the equation for each player except for Hader. He says, “some teams are alarmed by Bryant’s defensive metrics at third base”. Red Sox notes Considering creating payroll flexibility by ”attaching a young player such as outfielder Andrew Benintendi to a high-priced pitcher such as David Price or Nathan Eovaldi” (neither has a no-trade clause). Yankees notes Could get creative by, “clearing the $17 million they owe J.A. Happ in 2020 by enabling a trade partner to effectively buy one or two of their prospects.” Padres notes May continue “to part with players from their loaded system as they consolidate for more immediate help.” Cubs notes Cubs were one of three teams over the luxury tax threshold last year and with arbitration raises are already projected to be $6 million over this year’s threshold. Rosenthal says, “A reunion with free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos? Not a chance, at least for the moment. Club officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.” Dodgers notes The Dodgers currently have just $16.25 million in contracts committed for 2022 (Maeda and Pollack), and are positioned to potentially strike big this offseason. Early in the article Rosenthal speculated they may sign Anthony Rendon. Indians notes Teams are trying to buy low on Corey Kluber, but it sounds unlikely the Indians will trade him at the moment. Rosenthal speculates a better move for the Indians would be for him to rebuild his trade value over the first half of the season and trade him before the July deadline. Says Kluber’s trade value might also increase after all of the free agent starting pitchers sign. Mentions the same being the case for the following collection of 28 year old starters on the trade market, Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray, Marlins’ Caleb Smith and Tigers’ Matthew Boyd. Brewers notes Says the Brewers will find players this week. Says they are looking for help in the infield corners and in the outfield, as well as the pitching staff. Says the good news is their current projected payroll is just $84.7 million with the 32 players already on their 40 man roster, so they have money to spend. Foreign Players He compares Tsutsugo to Kyle Schwarber. He says Jae-Hwan, also a left-handed hitter, averaged 39 homers from 2016 to 2018, which dropped to 15 last year when the Korea Baseball Organization’s de-juiced their baseballs.

From Chicago reporter Bruce Levine... Meanwhile Hector Gomez appears to think enough of the sports reporter that announced it initially to also put it out there.

I figured we could start a thread for random MLB rumors that come up over the next week leading up to and during this year’s Winter Meetings. To kick things off here is one from a reporter (Frank Castillo) in the Dominican Republic...

First off, there is no need to include the “if you need that explained to you, I'm not sure what to say” type of condescension, so please stop. Second, using terminology such as “throwing darts” and “HOPE” is inaccurate. They aren’t throwing darts at a player pool, they have a significant amount of advanced data on every pitcher they consider. This includes information most of us wouldn’t understand if they laid it all out in front of us. They are targeting acquisitions because they have made a calculated decision they can help enhance their success through a few tweaks or modifications. They certainly may end up being wrong, as everyone is at some point, but it isn’t a result of some arbitrary process for selecting trade and free agent targets. It would be great to sign Cole and Strasburg instead, but as we’ve discussed ad nauseam that isn’t the reality of how the Brewers are going to be able to build out a rotation.

I agree that the Brewers should use Hader for a young, controlled starting pitcher with ToR potential. The other offensive positions the Brewers have been adept at drafting or filling via bargin free agency. Hader straight up for Snell makes sense because these leaves us in WIN NOW mode. Cease has potential but he will still likely have a few years of growing pains at the MLB level even if he ever reaches ace status. I actually feel that the White Sox RHP prospect Michael Kopech has an even higher ceiling than Cease. I would take one of those guys, plus a few more top pieces in an offer from Chicago before I'd consider trading Hader. Package Examples: WHITE SOX RHP Michael Kopech or Dylan Cease C/1B Zack Collins 3B Jake Burger This would at least have my attention. PADRES LHP MacKenzie Gore RHP Luis Patino or LHP Ryan Weathers 3B Hudson Potts BRAVES RHP Ian Anderson 3B Austin Riley RHP Kyle Wright or LHP Kyle Muller DODGERS SS Gavin Lux C Keibert Ruiz RHP Josiah Gray NATIONALS 3B Carter Kieboom RHP Mason Denaburg LHP Tim Cate ASTROS RHP Forrest Whitley C Korey Lee RHP Jose Urquidy A'S LHP Jesus Luzardo C Sean Murphy RHP Daulton Jefferies RAYS (if Snell is untouchable) LHP Brenden McKay 1B Nate Lowe RHP Brent Honeywell These are all big asks, but if any of these contending teams that want Hader balk at these packages than Stearns can tell them to go pound sand, IMO. Jeff McNeil and JD Davis are the type of return I'd expect if Hader was in his final season of team control, BTW. If the Mets took Lutz out of the proposed deal from our side and added in RHP Matthew Allen coming to the Brewers, it could be on par with the packages above however. If any of those teams is crazy enough to offer one of those packages for Josh Hader then the Brewers should say yes in a heartbeat.

It could increase or it could plummet. No way to know for certain, but I do have concerns about his multi-inning relief usage (more frequent in 2018 than last year) catching up with him at some point. Also, the more other players face him the more hittable he may become in theory. I hope he remains dominant (obviously), but I wouldn’t bet on it continuing for 4 more years.

Good point, the Rays have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to high end shortstop talent. In a couple of years they may use Adames as a trade chip when he’s arbitration eligible and Franco is MLB ready.

IMO, Carter Kieboom would be an outstanding return for Josh Hader, but I am not sure the Nationals would be into it. I would be really disappointed if the Brewers took that Astros proposal (RHP Josh James and 3B Abraham Toro). It’s funny to see the voting between the two proposals is 50% to 50%. I am guessing a lot of Astros and Nationals fans are voting for the second one.