Eye Black
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Everything posted by Eye Black
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[sarcasm]The PTBNL is... Zack Brown![/sarcasm] Haha, nice. I am skeptical that the Padres would make a selection on the Brewers behalf because I think the Rule 5 draft might actually be A.J. Preller’s favorite day of the year. -
As one of the longer tenured members of the Dom Smith —> MKE bandwagon, that move would make me very happy.
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Any guesses on the PTBNL? As Mass Haas pointed out on Twitter there is a good chance the potential player to be named later is eligible for the Rule 5 draft which is why they have to wait to complete the deal. If that is indeed the case, the Padres have a strong pool of talent that is Rule 5 draft eligible. Here are a few of the names... 1B/3B Jason Vosler 2B Esteury Ruiz OF Buddy Reed OF Michael Gettys RHP Lake Bachar - Former UW-Whitewater pitcher RHRP Dauris Valdez RHRP Evan Miller RHRP Trevor Megill Any other interesting Padres names eligible for the Rule 5? Not that this deal needs to get much better, but I am curious to see how the PTBNL plays out (assuming it doesn’t end up being cash).
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By most accounts he has performed much better defensively as a 2B than at SS. As far as offensive production, I would bet on him being a much better hitter than Arcia next season. He has reportedly displayed elite bat control in the minors and more recently traded some hit for power with an adjusted approach. Offensively Arcia has rated in the bottom two among all hitters in baseball the past two years. Among qualified hitters in 2019 he was dead last in wRC (45), wRAA (-24.1), wOBA (.269), and wRC+ (61), and in most of those cases he wasn’t particularly close statistically to the next worst hitter. That is a pretty low bar to clear for Urias. If Urias is able to be even just below average offensively next year that is a big upgrade, and he obviously has the possibility to eventually develop into an above average hitter.
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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
Eye Black replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
We’re less than three years removed from the Padres taking three players in their early 20’s that had no business being anywhere near a major league roster (Link) and keeping them for an entire year on their 25-man roster. I don’t think it’s far fetched that a rebuilding team in the business of talent acquisition could/would carry a 24 year old that’s already spent an entire season one step from the majors. He could be used as a long reliever in low leverage situations and would have little impact other than eating some meaningless innings. -
The more I’ve thought about this, I actually do think the Brewers should make an offer to Anthony Rendon that is a competitive AAV at five or fewer years. Possibly include a player opt out after either the 2nd or 3rd year to help incentivize their offer.
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According to Jeff Passan...
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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
Eye Black replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
IMO the Brewers probably tried to do something with Brown, but got no takers. He was badly overmatched at AAA last year (5.79 ERA - many more hits than IPs - 1.73 WHIP - almost 5 BBs per 9). I don't see any team thinking he would be Rule 5 material. I believe the Brewers left him unprotected because they feel he isn't going anywhere so why waste a spot for him. He obviously didn’t have a stellar campaign, but when put into the context of the overall PCL run environment last season he really wasn’t nearly as bad as we would traditionally think of those numbers. There were 98 pitchers in the PCL that made 10+ starts last year (Zach Brown made 23 starts which was 8th most in the PCL last year), and the average age of those starters was just over 26 years old (average age of all PCL pitchers was 26.7). Brown was 24 years old last season, so still a couple of years below the average age. Below is Zack Brown’s stat line compared to the league average pitching results in the PCL for 2019. League Average (PCL): 5.49 ERA 1.523 WHIP 9.8 H9 1.5 HR9 3.9 BB9 8.9 SO9 Zack Brown: 5.79 ERA 1.731 WHIP 10.6 H9 1.2 HR9 4.9 BB9 7.6 SO9 So again, he was not good last year, but considering his previous track record as well as the fact he was in a horrendous run environment last year, I will be a little surprised if nobody takes a chance on him in the Rule 5 draft. -
Eric Longenhagen wrote FanGraphs analysis of the trade, Analyzing the Brewers and Padres Swap of Young Big Leaguers Also below is Kiley McDaniel’s reaction during his FanGraphs Chat earlier today...
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Yeah, I’m not going to bemoan Pomeranz signing elsewhere if that was the top end of his market.
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I promise I wasn’t going to point fingers!
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For the “Arcia modeled the new uniforms and might be less likely to be traded now” crowd... ...here is Luis Urias modeling the Padres new duds earlier this month:
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[sarcasm]Maybe this trade is reparation for the Gary Sheffield trade of 1992?[/sarcasm]
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I think this is an important point. The reporting at the time was that the Padres had interest in acquiring Grisham. In this case it seems likely the Padres may have been the aggressor in targeting a player they wanted, and the Brewers were possibly able to leverage that into their favor. I know it was mentioned earlier, but this is by far the most lopsided valuation in the short history of the Baseball Trade Values site which started last season. The Brewers would have had to include $60 million to make this trade make sense according to their initial valuation. I do think they had Urias too high, and Grisham too low, but still... All that being said, I do think the Padres are, at the very least, getting a major league regular in Grisham.
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I think Garcia will be one of the steals of this free agent class.
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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2019
Eye Black replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
The part I don’t completely understand is Zack Brown still has some asset value, at least I would think so? If he ends up being one of the first players off the board in the Rule 5 draft, then it seems like they would have been better off to have protected him and worked out a trade this offseason in order to move him off their 40-man roster while retaining some value in return for him. I guess they can always work out a trade with the team that selects him in the Rule 5 draft (so the stipulations of returning him to Milwaukee don’t exist), but at that point the Brewers front office won’t have much leverage since they’ll be dealing with a single team. I guess it’s certainly possible (maybe likely?) they already floated him as a trade candidate earlier this offseason and couldn’t find any takers. As an aside, the rosters expanding to 26-players seemingly makes it a lot easier for teams to carry Rule 5 selections on their rosters throughout the season, especially for rebuilding teams taking a chance on a player with high upside. -
Not a surprise they are open to moving him, but interesting that Passan makes it sound like he may get moved fairly soon.
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I’m going to miss Grandal. I’m not upset they didn’t sign him and I understand the financial commitment combined with number of years was likely out of their comfort zone, but I’m certainly disappointed he won’t be back. He was seemingly the clear cut best option at the catcher position in terms of likely production. It is really going to put the pressure on filling some of the other lineup holes with above average bats. The difficulty with a platoon at the catching position is that you aren’t going to make in-game substitutions nearly as often as you would with other positions (unless maybe you’re carrying 3 catchers). Jason Castro has been good against RHP, but is also an obvious target to face LHP matchups late in games. In the case of Castro his career line versus LHP is .195 BA / .260 OBP / .293 SLG. While the potential for high leverage moments increase later in the game it isn’t exactly ideal to have a guy with a career .553 OPS against LHP sitting in your lineup. I still don’t hate the idea of signing Castro, but it certainly has some pitfalls.
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If he is indeed willing to value a high AAV on a shorter term deal over a lengthier agreement, what do you think would be a one or two year offer too good for him to refuse from a team? A one year at $45 million or two years at $85 million total? Maybe a three year, $120 million deal with an opt out after the second year?
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Well I nearly nailed the Grandal contract, but happy to be wrong about his destination.
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Looks like Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs was the closest among the following sites providing contract predictions... Yasmani Grandal Free Agent Contract Predictions MLB Trade Rumors: 4 years, $68 million ($17 million AAV) The Athletic (Jim Bowden): 3 years, $57 million ($19 million AAV) Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): 4 years, $70 million ($17.5 million AAV) Fangraphs (Crowdsource): 3 years, $48 million ($16 million AAV) New York Post: 4 years, $65 million ($16.25 million AAV) SB Nation: 3 years, $50 million ($16.66 million AAV) Bleacher Report: 4 years, $90 million ($22.5 million AAV)
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Paul Lukas of UniWatch provides an in-depth look at the Brewers new logos and uniforms, BiG News: Brewers Unveil New Uni Set Here is Adam McCalvy’s story, Ball-in-glove is back: Brewers unveil new unis And finally, here is the website link for the designer, Rare Design, if you are curious about which other professional teams they have worked with. This is their first work done on MLB logos/uniforms.
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Slightly strange that they have Bernie wearing a jersey they did not unveil tonight (a mashup of the home script on the road alternate uni).
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New Primary Logo: Old Ball and Glove logo versus new version: Old Barrelman versus new version: Secondary Logos: Brewers Industrial Font:
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I saw someone compare them to these and it made me chuckle...
