Eye Black

Claudio now has 9 straight scoreless appearances, and has given up just 2 runs in his last 18 appearances (14.2 innings).

The irony is Contreras had two spectacular plays in the outfield earlier in the game including an absolute dart to throw out the tying run at home in the 8th inning.

Via Brewers: The Brewers have selected the contract of RHP Deolis Guerra from Triple-A San Antonio. RHP Aaron Wilkerson has been optioned there. The 40-man roster is full.

The ball to Contreras looked like a blunder because he got to the ball and didn’t make the play, but by Statcast metrics it had a 40% catch probability. He appeared to be positioned very deep (assume they were playing no doubles defense) on the right-handed hitting Jung Ho Kang, and ran a long distance to try to make the play near the right field line. The play by Addison Russell to go home was a bone-headed decision, no doubt. He was playing deep in the infield because they had been instructed to concede the run and get the out. Russell admitted that he had made up his mind to go home before the play even developed which is extra mind-boggling since playing back in the infield there is very little chance a 2B is going to be able to get the out at home unless the ball is absolutely scolded. The first two batters of the inning were when I actually thought Kimbrel looked at his worst. He was having trouble locating his fastball. He seemed to be throwing the fastball either a foot off the plate or right down the middle of the strike zone. He ultimately got a ground out on Newman to start the inning after an at-bat that I believe started out 2-0. He got away with a pitch to Diaz in the next at-bat that was 94-mph heater in the dead center of the zone before ultimately walking him. It wasn’t a Kimbrel meltdown by any means, but it didn’t necessarily look sharp either.

Brandon Woodruff: Batter (Reds) vs Pitching Stats Luis Castillo: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

From MLB.com’s Mike Petriello...

I enjoy watching baseball. Especially the late innings of close games. Also, regardless of where the Brewers are in the standings I always find a heartbreaking Cubs loss therapeutic.

Lol at kimbrel. This would be so great if he stinks for three years That blown save falls on the Cubs defense. I just tuned in in the 9th inning and have no idea why Contreras was playing right field. But he butchered a simple fly ball that should have been the second out but instead put runners on second and third. Then the second baseman threw home trying to cut down the tying run at the plate and the winning run scored on a sac fly. So, Kimbrel gave up a walk and got 4 outs but it wasn’t good enough. Kimbrel walked the second batter of the inning and the ball Contreras didn’t get had a 40% catch probability according to Statcast. He got to the ball and probably should have caught it, but it wasn’t a routine catch for where the outfield was positioned. Kimbrel also got away with a 94-mph center cut fastball to Diaz. Either way, Kimbrel has looked a little more hittable in his first few outings.

After tonight’s game Kimbrel’s ERA has risen from 13.50 before this outing up to 16.88 now. Yes, I realize an ERA after just a few games is meaningless, but it’s bringing me happiness on a lousy night.

Yeah, they are 2nd in the NL in walks with 332.

Pirates walk-off Kimbrel!!! Cubs lose.

Blown save for Kimbrel with the Pirates still batting in the bottom of the 9th inning. Runners at the corners, one out.

I did think they would hit more doubles this year, but I think some of the would be doubles in the past are going for home runs now. The Dodgers are the only NL team within 15 home runs of the Brewers. Below is where the Brewers rank among the 15 teams in the National League for each of those categories... Total Hits = 731 (Rank 8th in NL) Doubles = 138 (Rank 10th in NL) Triples = 6 (Rank 14th in NL) Home Runs = 147 (Rank 1st in NL)

Braun swung at three curveballs in the same place well outside of the zone and missed all of them by nearly a foot. I would say he isn’t picking that one up very well.

[sarcasm]Yelich benched for bunting yesterday.[/sarcasm] [This is a joke] The whole bunt thing yesterday did remind me of this Adam McCalvy tweet.

JosephC - Hilarious. I've been guilty of buying into the sudden prospect helium more times than I would like to admit. As nate82 mentioned, I am certain front offices are much better at taking the long-view (and less game results based) when it comes to prospect valuation. As is often said, player development is not a linear path. Brew crew 92 - If you don't believe the site's valuations are very accurate that is fine, and I think you have expressed that in multiple posts now so everyone should have a pretty good sense of where you stand on it. Obviously the values given to players are never going to be 100% accurate and will even carry significant variance from each organization's internal player scouting evaluations. I don't think the website is making claims they've created some type of full-proof blanket system that can't be argued or adjusted. It should be used more as a guide to get a general sense of player's ballpark value. In many cases factors beyond just straight value will enter the equation (i.e. organizational needs; roster construction; a team's competitive cycle; etc). If you want to criticize their product I would encourage you to gain an understanding of the methodology and what they are actually attempting to accomplish. A good start would be to go back and listen to the podcast that was linked in the initial post. They are updating the values of MLB players daily. I don't know how often they are updating prospect values, but I can certainly understand the difficulties that would present. As others mentioned, front offices aren't typically going to put much stock in a couple of months of counting stats, either. There is also always going to be a wide variance of scouting opinions on prospects, so that will certainly remain a challenge for them. That being said, I don't think their current values are as wild as you are making them out to be. Teams have much better information than what is publicly available, so the website will never be perfect. What it will hopefully provide is some sense of whether a potential trade is within the realm of possibility or or not from a value standpoint. As they discussed on the podcast, one of the true tests will be reviewing their numbers as actual trades occur. That will present an opportunity to going back and view how close or far off they were from matching up in estimated value. As trades occur this month I will take a look at what the website had the various players valued at and post the comparison in this thread.

[pre]Brewers Lineup Reds Lineup 1. Lorenzo Cain ® CF 1. Jesse Winker (L) CF 2. Mike Moustakas (L) 3B 2. Joey Votto (L) 1B 3. Ryan Braun ® LF 3. Eugenio Suarez ® 3B 4. Eric Thames (L) 1B 4. Scooter Gennett (L) 2B 5. Keston Hiura ® 2B 5. Yasiel Puig ® RF 6. Ben Gamel (L) RF 6. Derek Dietrich (L) LF 7. Tyler Saladino ® SS 7. Jose Iglesias ® SS 8. Manny Pina ® C 8. Curt Casali ® C 9. Jhoulys Chacin ® P 9. Sonny Gray ® P[/pre] Jhoulys Chacín: Batter (Reds) vs Pitching Stats Sonny Gray: Batter (Brewers) vs Pitching Stats

Counsell admitted not going to Claudio to face Votto in the 8th inning was a mistake. At least he took ownership for it.

Also not ideal to throw that 0-2 pitch belt high in the dead center of the zone.

That is about as embarrassing as a loss can get.

Burnes in any ballpark is scary this year. He’s only given up one home run in his last 15.1 innings pitched in relief (since May 22nd).

A 5 pitch inning for a reliever with a 1.471 WHIP. That was one of the more disappointing efforts I can remember this year.

I don’t understand the Yelich bunt.... even a little bit.

Game saving catch for Moustakas, wow.

Agree with this. I am 99.9% sure it hit the knob of the bat first, but it will never get overturned on a batter with the hand that close to the knob.