Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Eye Black

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,459

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Oh, so teams are built of more players than just 1B.... Wow, so I guess we judge them based on 1B and DH... uh, oh there's no DH in the NL except for away inter-league games... so I guess we should judge whether a GM/team is doing something wrong based on maybe 1B and LF in the NL? or should we do 1B and 3B?... That seems so arbitrary... oh, I don't know, maybe we should use the entire roster? how about that? I honestly have no idea what point you are trying to make at this point, so I am not really sure where to go from here. You stated that a 101 wRC+ from a first baseman was "GOOD". I was merely attempting to point out that having a league average wRC+ from the 1B spot isn't exactly ideal since the bar is higher for the 1B position. The average wRC+ for a major league first baseman over the past two decades is 114, not 100. If you believe otherwise, let's just agree to disagree. Ironically, I agree that Aguilar is going to be a perfectly fine 1B this season. Have a nice day.
  2. Eye Black
    Yep, the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Rockies did something wrong last year... Only 1 of those playoff teams won the world series with a below average 1B... [sarcasm]By gosh, it looks like you've unlocked the newest market inefficiency! Who would have ever imagined trotting Ian Desmond out to first base all season last year was a key to the Rockies success?![/sarcasm] I would argue that in the American League there is slightly less pressure on getting power production from the 1B spot because you can still get that from the DH spot. Having J.D. Martinez to plug in the DH spot allows a lineup to look a lot better without great offensive production from 1B. It also appears it was a historically low year for 1B production in the AL last season. The data below showing the average wRC+ by position from both last year as well as 2000-2018 is somewhat interesting. As you can see, in the National League the average 1B was at a 112 wRC+ last season and 117 wRC+ from 2000-2018. Average wRC+ by position (and league) in 2018: [pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg P -25 -24 -32 C 84 88 79 1B 105 112 99 2B 93 91 95 3B 102 106 99 SS 95 89 101 LF 102 106 98 CF 96 100 92 RF 106 106 107 DH 112 97 112​[/pre] Average wRC+ by position (and league) from 2000-2018: [pre]Pos. MLB avg NL avg AL avg P -13 -13 -21 C 88 89 88 1B 114 117 111 2B 95 96 95 3B 102 103 101 SS 90 88 91 LF 106 109 102 CF 99 100 99 RF 109 109 109 DH 106 93 107​[/pre]
  3. Eye Black
    I guess the thing to keep in mind is that is league average among all position players (not just 1B). If you are a contending team that went an entire season with a league average hitter at 1B it could be argued you’re doing something wrong.
  4. Eye Black
    A few thoughts on the Grandal “offer” from the Mets and his outlook going forward... 1) My sense is that the discussed terms with the Mets were never $60 million. Based on what seems to be some of the more informed speculation I think it was closer to between $52 to $57 million with incentives that could have taken it higher. 2) I don’t believe he ever received a formal offer from the Mets. 3) He obviously ended up with less total dollars than those rumored amounts, but I still think he is a good bet to get his money. Let’s assume he would have received $55 million from the Mets over 4 years. His one year with the Brewers he is obviously getting $18.25 million. If he stays healthy and doesn’t fall off a cliff this season he would only need a deal of 3 years and $37 million ($12.33 million AAV) to meet those discussed amounts. That seems doable even for an aging catcher.
  5. Eye Black
    I am not advocating for this addition, but in Ken Rosenthal’s article for The Athletic today he mentioned, “the Phils likely have a trade lined up for third baseman Maikel Franco,” which was sort of interesting.
  6. Eye Black
    Synopsis of the Yasmani Grandal introductory press conference.
  7. Eye Black
    OPS v RHP the past three seasons: .844 .790 .824 Yes please. Very excited about this add. It’s a small sample (60 plate appearances), but Yasmani Grandal’s career stats at Miller Park... .296 AVG .259 ISO .922 OPS .393 wOBA 151 wRC+ Chase Field is a ballpark that is often compared as being a similar hitting backdrop to Miller Park, and Grandal’s stats are nearly identical (actually better) in 175 career plate appearances in Arizona. I know it has been publicized that Grandal is coming to Milwaukee to win the World Series (which will be great!), but I think a motivating factor was also likely a belief that he could put up some gaudy numbers playing half his games at Miller Park this season and re-enter the market without having the qualifying offer attached to him.
  8. Eye Black
    It very likely could be nothing, but I noticed the St. Louis Cardinals Twitter account recently started following Moustakas. They were rumored to be on him earlier this off-season, but their infield is obviously now more crowded with the Goldschmidt addition. He does check two boxes they are currently in need of though, left handed bats and better defense.
  9. Eye Black
    The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.
  10. Eye Black
    It seems like they Mets have high hopes as well as clear future plans for Alonso, but I do think they would be willing to deal Jeff McNeil (and maybe one of those secondary pieces) for Corey Knebel.
  11. Eye Black
    Maybe, but for 2019 specifically I think Stokes (already on the 40 man roster) has a lot better chance of logging major league innings (at the very least by September). I also tend to think Corey Ray is going to get traded at somepoint between now and July, but I guess we’ll see.
  12. Eye Black
    It seems like his guiding principle is adding value to the organization without a specific modus operandi for acquiring that talent/value. To homer’s point I don’t think he values those specific draft picks as highly as some others do (myself included).
  13. Eye Black
    Troy Stokes strikeout rate did climb this past season. I was a little surprised because historically he has produced an acceptable K%. I do think he has a better chance than Ray to keep the strikeouts down as he develops (Stokes is also 1.5 years younger than Ray while playing at the same level). The biggest knocks on Stokes game are that he is really pull side heavy and he is likely a LF only defensive profile (well below average arm). Still, he has an impressive ability to barrel the ball squarely when he makes contact, and he has above average power for someone so small. It is far from a perfect comparison, but there are some similarities to the early development profile of Khris Davis (who was a college draftee, so Davis was actually at low-A in his age 22 season whereas Stokes was at AA). He may never even become an MLB regular, but I would happily bet on Stokes floor being a productive 4th outfielder at the MLB level.
  14. Eye Black
    The biggest problem with penciling Hernán Pérez in as a platoon partner is it limits his positional flexibility to fill in at other spots (i.e. 3B or corner OF). For instance if Pérez is at 2B versus left-handed pitching, than you have Shaw anchoring 3B and facing lefties. If no other infielders are added I would guess that Tyler Saladino would play 2B with Hernán Pérez at 3B in this scenario. The problem is do you really want to rely on having Pérez, Saladino, and Arcia all in your lineup when facing LHPs? IMO they either need to believe Hiura can have an impact by June, or they need to find someone that can thrive versus lefties.
  15. Eye Black
    This is random, but I took a look back at Christian Yelich’s final numbers from his MVP season and realized how eerily similar his season was offensively to Joey Votto’s lone MVP season. Similarly to Yelich, Votto also won the award in his age 26 season. Walks (Votto) and stolen bases (Yelich) are probably the biggest discrepancies, but overall the counting stats are very similar. Joey Votto’s MVP Season (2010) [pre]Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2010 26 CIN 150 648 547 106 177 36 2 37 113 16 5 91 125 .324 .424 .600 1.024 171 328 11 7 0 3 8 *3 AS,MVP-1[/pre] Christian Yelich’s MVP Season (2018) [pre]Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2018 26 MIL 147 651 574 118 187 34 7 36 110 22 4 68 135 .326 .402 .598 1.000 164 343 14 7 0 2 2 *798 AS,MVP-1,SS[/pre]
  16. Eye Black
    It is an interesting topic (i.e. the tangible dollar value of postseason play). The true answer is obviously much deeper than solely tickets sales, but I was lucky enough to be able to get tickets to Game 163 at Wrigley through the Cubs website. The face value ticket prices were on average much higher than what the Brewers NLDS games were for roughly equivalent seats. I did some rough math at that time and am fairly confident the Cubs pulled in around $5 million in ticket sales revenue from Game 163 alone. Obviously there are operational costs involved, but not a bad pay day for a game that occurred by mere happenstance.
  17. Eye Black
    I think Troy Stokes, Jr. is going to be a sneaky good roster addition in September. He has some serious pull side pop in his bat and will add some speed on the basepaths.
  18. Eye Black
    In the most recent Effectively Wild Podcast (starting around the 7:00 minute mark) they discuss the Grandal signing. The do talk briefly about Grandal’s past reputation of not being the most well liked guy in the clubhouse (which Jeff had briefly mentioned in his previous FanGraphs article). They discuss reports that he has had trouble developing relationships with his pitchers. Warning if you listen to the podcast, there is a NSFW comment used to describe Grandal. They also go on to mention that Zack Greinke had quite the opposite to say about Grandal: “He’s been unbelievable back there,” Greinke said. “His catching is better than advertised, and working with me individually, he’s been as good as you could expect. I don’t think, from what I’ve seen so far, you could ever have expected anything more. “I couldn’t draw up a better catcher at the moment.” They do credit Grandal with more recently improving his ability to develop and maintain good relationships with his pitchers.
  19. Eye Black
    Yeah, that was pointed out in the original tweet with the Miller Park overlay, but in hindsight should have been reiterated in the post with the image. One thing I have seen mentioned is that while the NL West ballparks generally skew pitchers parks, Dodgers Stadium is actually above average in allowing home runs. Not nearly to the extent of Miller Park, but still more homerun friendly than it is generally considered.
  20. Eye Black
    Huh, I vaguely remember that incident, but had completely forgotten the players involved. Okay, cross him off the list then.
  21. Eye Black
    I am copying a comment RollieTime made in the 2019 Lineup thread in the Major League forum. He is correct that Danny Valencia could likely be signed for a small financial commitment. I think Valencia could actually be a better offensive upgrade than any of the realistic 2B options remaining. Valencia mashes left-handed pitching. Valencia’s wRC+ versus LHP the last few seasons: 2014: 135 wRC+ 2015: 128 wRC+ 2016: 153 wRC+ 2017: 119 wRC+ 2018: 132 wRC+ Travis Shaw is awful against LHP (66 wRC+ last year). If Valencia was available to bat against LHP he would project as one of the Brewers top four hitters (against LHP). With the Cubs being so lefty heavy Valencia could certainly add another solid bat versus the Northsiders. It would also take the pressure off needing to make a splash at 2B, and especially if the team believed that Keston Hiura could take over the 2B job by June.
  22. Eye Black
    AUDIO via “Morning Lineup” Podcast on MLB.com: MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince and Richard Justice discuss the Mets staying active by reportedly adding veteran Jed Lowrie and the Nationals making a move themselves in nearing a deal with Brian Dozier. Plus, Brewers reporter Adam McCalvy joins the show (discussion begins at the 18:00 minute mark) to break down the club signing Yasmani Grandal to a one-year deal. They share their thoughts about Kyler Murray's plan to enter the NFL Draft, as well as the Giants' decision to rename AT&T Park to Oracle Park.
  23. Eye Black
    I’ve wondered along these same lines. Hoping someday he makes a return to the site.
  24. Eye Black
    Thanks for putting that together! Also, Ben Gamel had a 113 wRC+ versus RHP last year.
  25. Eye Black
    It was only a 63 game sample, but the lefty hitting Jeff McNeil was very really good last year. I know he can also play 3B, but it does seem like they are building a lot of redundancy unless something else gives.
×
×
  • Create New...