Eye Black

AAV would be $21M guaranteed, and would be $25M per year if incentives are reached. That seems less than I would have expected. So the $90M over 4 years the Cubs fans wasn't too far off, it just went two years further essentially. Rosenthal says the $150M is pretty slim since he'd need to win multiple CY Young awards. I thought the lowest we would possibly see for Darvish was 5-years for $125 million, so this would indeed appear to be a steal.

So it is a 6-year deal in the $150 range? I think that is a pretty good deal for the Cubs. My biggest fear is the Cubs getting Darvish leads to the Brewers getting Arrieta whom I worry does not have much left in the proverbial tank.

Reviving this thread because I enjoy having a place to record player comps. The newest Baseball America Prospect Handbook includes this phrase regarding Tristen Lutz: “Lutz is explosive, with tools across the board. He has a muscular frame that evokes a young Matt Holliday, runs and throws well, and has a chance to be average or better in all five tools.

We are simply sharing ideas/thoughts here. I suggest avoiding the urge to insert the phrase “you guys” into an otherwise perfectly fine statement. It detracts from the point you are making and sets a combative lens for the reader. The Brewers and the Cardinals were the anomaly last year as the only two teams with a winning record that missed the playoffs. In 2017 a total of 18 teams finished below .500. The goal of the reverse draft among non-playoff teams isn’t necessarily to ensure they will be better at the MLB level the next year, but more to motivate organizations to put together a competitive roster even if it isn’t necessarily likely to be a World Series contender. Part of the premise here was, “what factors could continue motivate a larger number of teams to submit offers to free agents?” This was just one interesting idea being shared, it would obviously be a drastic measure that would attract plenty of fair criticism. It could also be argued that the market may correct itself if too many teams try to rebuild at the same time and diminish their overall likelihood for success via the rebuild process. If you don’t think teams should be incentived to be average, and prefer the system the way it is, I completely understand that and agree there are plenty of virtues to the current the system. The idea was simply brainstorming a way to change the dynamics that encourage rebuilding in its current form. I agree with LouisEly’s thoughts that there may be other ways to alter market variables and encourage teams to sign free agents that either present a more immediate payoff, or else reduce the risk associated with an albatross contract. Allowing exceptions to the luxury tax similar to the NBA’s salary cap exemptions would be interesting, but likely wouldn’t do any favors for small market teams.

He injured his elbow pitching in an inter-squad game last March and had Tommy John surgery. I don’t believe he is expected to be back throwing until sometime after the start of the season.

I know that idea is far from likely, just a thought. But if tanking isn't a good strategy in baseball, why are so many teams doing it? Just recently the nationals got Strasburg and Harper, cubs got Bryant, Rizzo, schwarber, Astros got Bergman and correa. Tanking has proved extremely effective, I'm not sure how you can dispute that... Never did I say that. I am saying teams are not tanking for draft position like they would in the NBA. Teams in the MLB "tank" because they are selling off their proven assets(Lucroy/Gomez). Teams aren't becoming terrible to get better draft position. What you are proposing would have absolutely zero effect on how teams rebuild. Teams would do exactly what they do now. I agree that tanking is a strategy employed for several reasons beyond just draft ramifications, but it is still very much part of the equation. Beyond just a higher selection, the draft pool allotments are also affected by order of finish. The higher draft pool allotments allow teams to manipulate the draft beyond just the cut and dry order of selection. As far as I know that is unique to the baseball draft, at least as compared to other major sports. Currently the incentives are influencing teams to either try to assemble a surefire playoff roster, or else try to sell off assets with down the road success in mind. I have seen some interesting suggestions for shifting focus towards incentivizing winning more for all 30 teams. Right now the worst place to be in baseball is average. One suggestion was to give the 20 teams that miss the playoffs a draft order (and pool money) in order from most wins to least. So for instance the 86 win Brewers (who are even drafting behind a playoff team, the Twins, this year) would have the #1 selection in this year’s draft for being the most successful team to just miss the playoffs. The idea is subject to plenty of scrutiny, but it would put a lot of additional value on being able to assemble an 80-win team, and would make it much harder for a team to rebuild via a complete “tear it down to the studs” rebuild/tank job... something the Brewers never really executed, but the Astros and Cubs certainly did.

Just a quick recap on where things stand currently for 2019 Triple-A affiliations. These four organizations are likely changing cities... Brewers A’s Rangers Nationals With the four destination cities being... Fresno Las Vegas San Antonio Nashville It does appear that Fresno remains the most likely match for the Brewers at this point.

Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.

Yes, so basically Kiley was saying that if the 2017 MLB draft was re-drafted today, he would have both Keston Hiura and Tristen Lutz ranked among his top eight overall players. For those interested, he also mentioned the next three after that list would be Baz, Bukauskas and Heliot. There is obviously still a long way to go in the development for both Hiura and Lutz, but the early returns on their prospect pedigree has been very positive. To give a little additional insight, Kiley was with the Braves last year, and they had Lutz in for a private pre-draft workout. Eric Longenhagen relayed at one point that Kiley had told him Lutz’s exit velocities were “in the 110-to-115 mph range”, which is elite for anyone, let alone an 18-year old. While Fangraphs is the first top 100 list we have seen Lutz in, it seems his star is on the verge of rising very quickly with a strong showing this season.

Among all of the excellent audio options provided in the previous post, this one was by far my favorite listen!

Received the Baseball America Prospect Handbook in the mail today, and Nathan Kirby made the Brewers top 30 prospects. I found one sentence in particular fairly encouraging, “He threw well in instructional league after the season with no issues.”

Ballpark Digest Article Link: Looks like there has been some recent discussion of the Helena Brewers (or who ever ends up playing in Colorado Springs long term) eventually moving from Security Services Field to a downtown dual-use venue that would be shared with a USL soccer club.

Per Ken Rosenthal... He had been projected by some to get 3 years for somewhere between $11 to $14 million AAV, so this is significantly less.

http://www.stephensonsofessex.com/ocart/?showimg_alpz=popcorn+lab+report.jpg

In addition to the Fangraphs list linked in the previous post, the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospect List was also released. Brewers Prospects listed... #32 - Keston Hiura #80 - Corbin Burnes #81 - Brett Phillips Former Brewers Prospects include... #18 - Lewis Brinson #49 - Monte Harrison #85 - Isan Diaz

Hot of the presses is the Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects List. If you want to get really, really excited about Tristen Lutz just scroll down to #68 on the scouting reports provided on each player in the top 100. Brewers Prospects on the list... #24 - Keston Hiura #35 - Corbin Burnes #68 - Tristen Lutz Brewers Prospects listed as "Under Consideration" included... Brandon Woodruff Lucas Erceg Corey Ray Former Brewers Prospects listed... #13 - Lewis Brinson #52 - Monte Harrison #87 - Isan Diaz

I am in favor of adding the DH as well. Having this element different between the two leagues made more sense before interleague play, but now you are having teams frequently play each other that have a much different factor influencing their roster construction. I also think it would increase the likelihood we could see a slight pendulum shift in the willingness of NL teams to sign FA veterans past their defensive prime.

With some speculation earlier this off-season that the support for adding the Designated Hitter in the National League was “gaining momentum” among teams, I am curious if our community here would support such a significant change. I set up a simple poll and would like to read others opinions on whether or not they are in favor of the DH being implemented in the National League in the near future? Please participate in the poll, but also feel free to share your opinion on the subject in the thread below. Thanks for participating!

He had a significant shoulder injury requiring surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2016 season, and then reportedly had a significant set back at the end of 2016. He was listed on the minor league 60-day DL during the 2017 season, and I don’t believe he played in any games this year.

Richard Justice of MLB.com listed his 10 dark horse MVP candidates for 2018 which includes both Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw.

Yes, he did interviews at the fan fest event last weekend. He also did an interview with Barstool Radio that isn’t safe to post here, but you can find if you search for it on Twitter (warning, the host is extremely annoying, vulgar and lewd).

That's a really interesting take actually (also with the caveat that I wouldn't really trust BW, but he does spew out enough stuff he finds in random places that he does accidentally hit on things sometimes). As soon as it was mentioned Phillips might be needed in an Archer deal I was wondering if there was an OF bat they could throw back our way to lessen the blow. In addition to actually sounding more like "Jack Bauer" than Trevor does, he bats lefthanded, has actually played more outfield than first the past two seasons (last year predominantly in LF, while in 2016 predominantly in RF), and despite not showing a lot of power for a 1B/corner OF type, he gets on base at a good clip and is ranked 73 on MLB's top prospect list. Certainly would make giving up a haul for Archer a bit easier to stomach. Jake Bauers is a high OBP guy who should develop into a solid MLB regular. Maybe the Brewers get Jake Bauers and Jake Faria from the Rays for Santana? Both Jake’s were in KATOH’s mid-season top 100 prospects.

I went back and listened to the Statcast Podcast from 1/9/18 which spends the first part of the show discussing comps for Lorenzo Cain in order to determine how he might age. The parameters of their search were to find players since since 1993 that had a three year span with at least 1,000 total plate appearances between either ages 28-30 or ages 29-31 who maintained a wRC+ between 110-120 with a positive defensive WAR value while playing greater than 25% of their time in centerfield. The search yielded ten players total. They dismissed two of the search results as not being very good comps, Garret Anderson (because he was never all that good defensively) and Andruw Jones (because he was an elite level player in his 20’s who fell off dramatically when reaching his 30’s), which brought the list down to eight similar profiles: Torii Hunter Mike Cameron Reggie Sanders Kenny Lofton Shane Victorino Randy Winn Curtis Granderson Brett Gardner They felt that Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron were the two best comps for Lorenzo Cain. I would be very happy if Cain went on to match either of those players into his mid-30’s.

Newest article from Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs: Christian Yelich’s Arrow Is Pointing Up