Eye Black

If I win the PowerBall tonight I will pony up the extra $$ it takes to make sure Moncada doesn't end up in pinstripes! With another week of workouts scheduled for Moncada, it sounds like several teams are scheduling additional follow-up workouts. I think it will be telling to see if the Brewers schedule a second workout since it would make sense to work the guy out again if they are serious about winning the bidding. Based on what I read the workouts are scheduled to be wrapped up by the end of next week and his advisor is hoping to have offers in hand by February 23rd.

Out of curiosity I looked up the prospect pedigree (draft position and Baseball America overall prospect rankings) of the 2014 season's top ten (actually eleven) MLB performers in terms of bWAR. Not trying to make any specific points so feel free to call the data plenty of awful names (i.e. small sample size, cherry-picking, just plain dumb), but I figured since I took a couple of minutes to look it up and I found it mildly interesting, I might as well share it here. I would encourage others to check out the last line of the Michael Brantley story linked below, as John Sickels finished the piece with a Nostradamus-like prediction. MLB's 2014 Wins Above Replacement Leaders (via Baseball-Reference) [pre]1. Kershaw (LAD) 8.0 2. Trout (LAA) 7.9 3. Donaldson (OAK) 7.4 4. Kluber (CLE) 7.4 5. Beltre (TEX) 7.0 6. Brantley (CLE) 7.0 7. Hamels (PHI) 6.9 8. Hernandez (SEA) 6.7 9. Lucroy (MIL) 6.7 10t. Gordon (KCR) 6.6 10t. Sale (CHW) 6.6[/pre] Clayton Kershaw Drafted 1st Round (7th overall) in 2006 #24 BA Prospect Pre-2007 #7 BA Prospect Pre-2008 Mike Trout Drafted 1st Round (24th overall) in 2009 #85 BA Prospect Pre-2010 #2 BA Prospect Pre-2011 #3 BA Prospect Pre-2012 Josh Donaldson Drafted 1st Round (48th overall) in 2007 Never Ranked in BA Top 100 Corey Kluber Drafted 4th Round in 2007 Never Ranked in BA Top 100 Adrian Beltre Signed at 16 yrs old out of Dominican Republic in 1994 #30 BA Prospect Pre-1997 #3 BA Prospect Pre-1998 Michael Brantley Drafted 7th Round in 2005 Never Ranked in BA Top 100 Side note: Brantley wasn't even ranked in BA's top 30 prospects in the Brewers organization early in his professional baseball career. I don't remember coming across this article before, but I encourage you to click the link and scroll to the last sentence of this piece from 2009 written by John Sickels, Prospect Review: Michael Brantley. Cole Hamels Drafted 1st Round (17th overall) in 2002 #17 BA Prospect Pre-2004 #71 BA Prospect Pre-2005 #68 BA Prospect Pre-2006 Felix Hernandez Signed at 16 yrs old out of Venezuela in 2002 Prospect Ratings by Baseball America: #30 BA Prospect Pre-2004 #2 BA Prospect Pre-2005 Jonathan Lucroy Drafted 3rd Round in 2007 Never Ranked in BA Top 100 Alex Gordon Drafted 1st Round (2nd overall) in 2005 #13 BA Prospect Pre-2006 #2 BA Prospect Pre-2007 Chris Sale Drafted 1st Round (13th overall) in 2010 #20 BA Prospect Pre-2011

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 Prospects of 2015 was released yesterday (click the link for the full list). Here is the top five and the Brewers lone representative: 1. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins 2. Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs 3. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros 4. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians 5. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs ....... 93. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

My girlfriend says i need to learn to let things go, but MLB had that 2B as the 4th or 5th best 2B prospect when little Scooter Gennett was 9 or 10. Number 1 was Wong and rule V'd DeShields was above him. I can't remember the rest... /shakes fist In 2011 MLB.com had Scooter ranked as the #6 ranked 2B prospect and Jedd Gyorko as the #9 ranked 3B prospect. In 2012 MLB.com ranked Scooter as the #8 2B prospect and Gyorko as the #8 ranked 3B prospect. As you mentioned the top ranked 2B prospect in 2012 was Wong and DeShields was #2.

It does seem like some organizations discuss their prospects more publicly or give a greater amount of access to their scouting information than others. I think it can probably be both intentional and unintentional at times. Some of the rankings may also be influenced by the relationships and familiarity that the individual prospect rankers have with specific scouts and/or organizations. For example, in the past I enjoyed the Baseball Prospectus rankings and analysis, but I always felt they gave a little additional attention and in some cases overinflated the hype surrounding some of the Rangers prospects. I don't think they were necessarily doing it on purpose on the teams behalf, but it was somewhat natural since Jason Parks and Jason Cole had strong friendships with the Rangers scouts and staff, and had more intimate access to the Rangers prospects while watching their development in settings such as the back fields at Spring Training or instructs. As far as the statistical analysis of BA prospect rankings versus MLB success as well as organizational rankings anaylsis, check out these FiveThirtyEight articles... What to Expect from Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects Baseballs Best Farm Systems How Much Do They Matter

Per Jon Heyman:

James Shields reportedly has agreed to terms with the Padres. From MLB Trade Rumors: One benefit for the Brewers here is that the Padres will have to forfeit the #13 pick in the MLB draft, which will move the Brewers up to the #15 overall selection. Also, somewhat ironic that the Padres now end up with both of the main pieces involved in the Ray-Royals trade from two years ago.

Although they could theoretically sign both I guess, one thing that may cause the Dodgers to shy away from Moncada is if they sign Cuban infielder Hector Olivera. Olivera is likely to be a straight to the big leagues infield option for whichever team he signs with and may be more appealing to some since his impact should be immediate and with less overall risk or cost.

SRB, I really hope you are right on the bonus being lower than is currently being speculated. If it is indeed lower than expected I think the Brewers could be in the mix to sign him. Like you, I have no idea what will happen either, I just tend to think the winning bid will fall into the higher end of that range. One of the "internet pundits" that I put some stock in was Kiley McDaniel who has formerly worked within three MLB organizations. Last week he wrote an article handicapping the race and used an admittedly vague term, "the industry", to reference his sources. Here is a section from that piece: You also brought up a good point about Moncada requiring additional salaries through arbitration. It is certainly something teams are going to keep in mind. I think he would spend at least 1-2 full seasons in the minors, so his clock would hopefully be delayed to a window closer to his age 21-26 seasons. To your point though, all combined it is a steep price to pay for a player you may ultimately lose as he enters his prime years.

It appears like a good bet that Moncada will receive a bonus closer to $40 million than $20 million. Cuban CF Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox for 6 years, $72.5 million back in August. While it isn't quite the same type of up front investment with the Castillo deal and it could be argued the 27 year old outfielder is closer to a sure thing at this point, but Castillo doesn't appear to have nearly the ceiling that Moncada does. As a comparison, Castillo is currently rated outside the top 30 in most recent top prospect lists I have seen released. Many reputable prospect analysts have already projected Moncada as immediately being a top ten prospect in baseball the day he signs. I would be very surprised if purchasing an instant top ten talent with tools that all grade out at 60 or higher doesn't command a total investment of $70 million or more.

This is such great content, and IMO the most complete and accurate of any Brewers prospect rankings list that I have come across.

Ben Badler of Baseball America lists Orlando Arcia and Tyrone Taylor as the #26 and #31 prospects in baseball in his personal rankings published in the recently released BA Prospect Handbook. It is the highest I have seen either ranked by a national baseball writer to this point.

I get the sense the Brewers are going to make a run at Moncada, even if they ultimately fall short. They offered Abreu $64 million as a possible solution to the first base situation, and I don't think they will shy away from putting together a competitve offer for a player who could shore up another organizational need in third base (although it is obviously far from a sure thing). I might be reading too much into this, but here are some excerpts I found very interesting from Adam McCalvy's MLB.com article: EDIT: I should add that I fully expect Moncada to sign with the Dodgers or Yankees, but I am happy the Brewers are at least exploring the idea of putting together an offer. Like many others, I don't think the Brewers will be able to go quite as high in total investment as this will likely require (potentially $90-$100 million).

With James Shields free agency likely coming to an end in the near future I am curious what others predictions are for Shields landing spot as well as the combination of money and years he will receive? I am going to go with the Marlins at 4 years for $86 million.

Chris Perez is a Nez Balelo client that I believe was also a teammate of Ryan Braun at Miami. It has been speculated previously that Attanasio and Balelo may have discussed Perez at Ryan Braun's wedding as part of the same conversation that led to Matt Garza's eventual signing.

Per the new Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Milwaukee is listed as having the #21 ranked system in baseball. Cubs were #1, Tigers were #30. It is the Brewers highest ranking since 2010 (when they were ranked #14). Milwaukee's previous four rankings from 2011-2014 in chronological order were 30, 25, 22, 29. It's also worth noting that the books went to the publisher in mid-December, so the system ranking was done prior to the Gallardo for Sardinas-Knebel-Diplan trade.

Baseball America 2015 Revised Top 10 Prospects (for each team) Updated Brewers list slots Luis Sardinas at #3. I didn't think he was eligible, so it is a somewhat surprising addition.

It appears Lucroy is officially the primary 1B option versus left handed starting pitchers this season per FoxSports article, Brewers to use Lucroy at first base against lefties this season

I think an argument could be made that Sardinas could be as good or better than Amarista, Barmes, and even Gyorko in the near future. He would likely be an immediate defensive upgrade over Jedd Gyorko (not to mention a lot cheaper). Obviously Preller has had a good vantage point of Sardinas development thus far.

Zelous was introduced by the Rakuten Eagles in a press conference yesterday with a very peculiar welcome from his new team's twitter account (full story here):

My biggest problem with Keith Law has been that he often makes generalizations about organizations or negative comments about specific players without backing up his statements with tangible evidence from scouts or industry experts. The last straw for me was after he hit Devin Williams with the vague "make-up issues" tag shortly after the Brewers drafted him. This about the same player in Williams that he had been high on heading into the draft. It came across to as both hypocritical and irresponsible. As far as organizational rankings, I don't get hung up on the rankings because they are a snap shot in time, and in Keith Law's case are heavily weighted to favor the teams with the most top 100 prospects. The last three years Keith Law has ranked the Brewers 29, 30, and now 28. The difference this year is the organization seems to be trending in the right direction. As others have pointed out there are many young players in the organization right now that have the potential to breakout over the next 2-3 years. Regardless of where others list the Brewers in the farm system rankings, I am confident that the system has a handful of future major leaguers in it right now at the lower levels. Regarding Arcia, I am happy for him to finally get some recognition nationally. I know TheCrew07 has been high on him for a while now, and I have enjoyed following his progress from afar. I am excited to watch him continue his development over the next couple of years and to eventually see him get his chance at the MLB level.

I know the international market breeds frustration and it certainly leaves small market organizations at a disadvantage, but it is the amateur baseball players in the United States that are the actual victims here, not the teams. I am intrigued to see what dollar value Moncada ultimately nets. It will be the closest example we have had to what the actual fair market value is for a 1-1 selection (if they were afforded free agency instead of being subject to the MLB first year player draft). Under the current slotting system the first ten picks were allotted a total signing pool of approximately $45 million last year. Moncada's total cost is likely to surpass that number on his own. While I think the current draft system adds competitive balance and ultimately protects teams from themselves, it is also incredibly restrictive to the upper echelon of domestic amateur talent who would otherwise command as much as 2-to-4 times the actual dollar value of their signing bonus.

It appears that's exactly what they are focusing on with their pitching staff. Here is some additional evidence to support that point.

I thought Peralta's change-up made a big difference for him last year? Peralta threw a change occasionally, but is primarily still just two speeds: Fastball/Sinker (96 mph) and Slider (86 mph). I HIGHLY RECOMMEND this article, Wily Peralta and the Case of the Missing Whiffs, on factors contributing to Wily Peralta's lack of swinging strikes and strikeouts. Reasons cited include the lack of a third pitch speed, predictability of when he is going to throw a slider (ahead in count) vs. sinker (behind in count), and organizational philosophy (pitches low in the zone with the four-seamer, and Brewers were 7th in MLB in starters pitching to contact). Whether you agree with the contributing factors or not, the analysis of Wily Peralta entering his third full season as a starter is interesting.

With Jungmann providing rotation depth, and finally being close to contributing at the MLB level I would be shocked if the Brewers were willing to part with him in this kind of deal.