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I think there's a general assumption that JHJ has been lights out, which he really hasn't. Since JHJ appeared in Milwaukee: Jerry's 265.315.338.653 Yuni's.239.257.385.642Yuni hasn't been good at all, but I don't find JHJ's numbers all that impressive either since coming over. He hasn't hit for power, and has recorded only 5 xbh. The discussion about RBIs in the Taylor Green thread had me trying to put together some stats that averaged the RBI out per plate appearance. I know, it's not all that fair to blast Jerry for producing 3 RBIs when 10 of 23 games he batted 7th behind Yuni and Casey. I can't do splits since joining the team either, since I don't have that data. But here it goes: His RBI per PA is 0.041 vs Yuni's 0.150 (Casey's is 0.194, Fielder is 0.225, Lucroy 0.133 for a couple comparisons). I know it's just a stat I just made up, but I think it's kind of cool. In a month you'll get around 100 PA, so Fielder's RBI average per PA this month is around 22.5 ... which if he had averaged each month would put him around 112 RBIs right now. So given around 100 at-bats in a month (73 in reality) given his projections, JHJ likely RBI count would be on average 4 (given more starts, obviously). I'm not going to hold much weight on this, since I just made it up, but the point is, JHJ hasn't been on-fire or an RBI machine. Yes, before I get pelted by insults, I realize the amount of RISP opportunities by Jerry is probably low. I liked Lucroy's as a contrast because he has likely seen similar RISP numbers. Since the 7-spot has been the 2B spot, a lot of doubles probably haven't been hit there anyways. In the 8-hole, Yuni or McGehee would likely the player in the scoring position, as opposed to the 7-spot, where Fielder or McGehee would be the RISP. On the other hand, Yuni has been.228.254.351.605with RISP all year. That's not very good, considering the stat can be misleading. When you have a runner at 3rd with 1 or 0 out, you should see a boost in this stat because you're likely trying to advance the runner with a fly ball. If it lands, you get a H, if not, you get a SF. I think at this point, Yuni isn't getting replaced as long as Weeks is out of the line-up. It's sort of a toss-up at this point. Do you want a high OBP guy who draws walks, or a contact hitter with power in that part of the lineup? It really depends on how well he's doing come Week's return. As far as the article goes: I think RR has a point. He's had some line-drive outs, which is a good sign. He's also popped out a bunch and isn't taking the ball to opposite field. Bad sign. Defensively he's been pretty decent over his recent slump, minus a couple botched ground balls. He made a web gem on Friday that was a decent play, and he's turned some good double plays. On Saturday he made a great play and one-hopped a ball to Fielder, whom did a poor job of digging it out of the dirt. On McGehee's error he made a nice recovery to barehand and beat the runner, but Prince couldn't scoop it out of the dirt on that one either. I wouldn't really call these plays lazy, and I haven't seen him not run through 1st. I don't think you can tell by his swing that he isn't somehow putting effort in at the plate. He's pretty much always had the same looking swing, especially when he has that low-to-high swing that he's hit home runs on this year. I just think he's not that outstanding of a baseball player. He's pretty much at his career stats, and I can't see signs that he's under-performing of his capabilities due to laziness.

Andruw Jones did it in '96, and went on to have a good playoffs. Wasn't quite the switch out a 'player not performing' case with Klesko, Grisson, and Dye. Probably the reason you aren't finding many examples is that playoff teams are good, so they don't need to shake things up as much during the stretch run, unless somebody gets hurt. But good thought to look. I don't disagree with you about just replacing McGehee with Green in the lineup now. Casey, as you point out, has been merely mediocre in the second half rather than terrible, and when a team is doing well I don't think you make big changes unless you have a pretty compelling reason for doing so (like the fact that Yuni Betancourt is your starting shortstop). I would give Green some starts against RHPs. I do disagree, for reasons others have explained well, about your assumption that we can't know how Green will perform while we can know how McGehee will perform. We have just about the same quality of predictive evidence for both players. I think we often make the mistake of assuming that a major league player will simply keep doing what he has been doing, alongside the mistake of assuming that minor league performance doesn't tell us anything about likely major league performance. We know something about how Green is likely to perform, and we also know that McGehee (like any player) is a risk going forward. Also, what Mat Gamel's so-so performance in limited MLB opportunities has to do with Taylor Green completely escapes me. You might as well say that we should bench McGehee because Craig Counsell has had a terrible year. You're right that we can't know how a player will likely perform. I generally think McGehee, as bad as he has looked this year, is still a safer option. Maybe RR watched the movie 'Miracle' too many times and doesn't want to upset the chemistry of the team. Maybe he's thinking Casey will pick it up. Whatever his reason is, I don't think it's a terrible move at this point to stick with him, and I don't think a move is drastically needed as everyone thinks it is. As much as RR seems like he's an aggressive manager on the bases, he seems pretty conservative with the line-ups and I don't really see anything big happening. If Casey starts slumping again and the Brewers only lead the division by 4-5 games, I can see him doing the move. But when the team has been on a tear, the last thing he wants is to shake things up. I would also like Green to get some at-bats. We have him on the roster, so why not test the waters to see if he gets hot early for a potential platoon role? And Gamel was brought up because he is in the case that all minor league success doesn't immediately correlate with major league success. I also gave the link to last year's 2010 PCL BA leaders, and if you go down the list, instant major league success was not the case. You're absolutely right that we can't know for certain how any player will perform over any stretch. Even Braun and Fielder have both been in slumps this year. If you put Green in, you don't know if he'll tear it up or be a total flop. You also don't know if McGehee will go back to first-half numbers or play like he did last year. The one thing Casey has going for him over Green is that he's been very good before at a major league level. He's proven capable of being a big bat, whereas Green hasn't at a major league level yet. I think that's ultimately what it may come down to for RR. And that kind of sucks because McGehee has been a huge disappointment this year. At the beginning of the season, I would never have imagined a discussion about whether or not to start McGehee. We shouldn't need to have this argument. Another last thing to add before getting overly repetitive... it's also good that we can have this debate. How often can we argue against calling a player up? I'm so used to this team being out of the race by September that calling someone up and starting him is a no-brainer. It's nice being in the driver seat with a large lead and worried about existing players rather than getting worried about having enough starts for your prospects.

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Threw another 0-2 pitch over the plate. Bad play by McGehee. Ugh. Betancourt made a good recovery and made a good attempt. If Prince scooped it cleanly, he's out. Prince had a problem with a scoop yesterday too. GOD MCGHEHEE give me a heart attack>? Nice recovery on that one too. He still had plenty of time to throw, so I'm not all that concerned he tagged the runner.

Terrible 0-2 pitch. Terrible.

I don't understand Yuni. He's not guessing wrong, and he's not striking out. When Bill Hall sucked, he was sucking because he couldn't tell the difference between a fastball down the middle and a curve ball in the dirt. Yuni seems to be hitting it in play, but to left field or popped straight up. He doesn't appear to be completely lost at the plate, or whiffing at pitches, but he produces the same results every time. Frustrating.

I was at the game Friday, and I think it was about 15-20%. I was up in the terrace, so I'm not sure if that means anything. The Cubs fans that were there were pretty obnoxious as usual. One over-weight girl kept standing up and flipping people off. She tried to start the wave about a dozen times and never shut up. Don't think she saw a single pitch. There was also a 7-year old kid who kept yelling "Braun sucks" and "Fielder sucks" and other Brewers suck things while his dad watched him. Then there was this older guy who kept yelling "Princess sucks" in front of his 8-year old daughter. He would also yell "Soriano you suck, retire" whenever Alfonso was up, so I guess he was being equally negative toward both teams.

As much as it's frustrating to watch Corey wave by pitches that are low and away, he still LOVES that pitch when it's near the plate. If you're going to throw that to Corey, you make sure it's outside. Corey's been ridiculous this series.

I've heard that before somewhere but I don't get it. What is there to hate so much about batting 5th? Don't like batting with guys on base? Don't like having to bat after the pitcher intentionally walks Fielder? I can see some guys not liking hitting in front of the pitcher, or even batting lead off (I batted leadoff a lot and sometimes it felt odd to step in and hit before really getting into the game, but after the top of the first is didn't matter to me). But 5th? Is it really so different than 6th or 7th? Other than hitting 1st or 8th I don't see how it would be such a big deal to a major league hitter. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hartco01&year=Career&t=b#lineu He's started in the 5-hole more than any other position. His average is about the same as in lead-off. There's not a huge drop-off or anything like that, so I don't really understand that.

"Typically the Brewers have had the green light on 3-0" I hear them say this all the time, but rarely seem to see them swinging. Out of 123 PA, the Brewers have put 12 AB (balls in play) from the 3-0 count. 3H 4R 2HR 4RBI (0 K lol).

In defense of Morgan's bunt, he beats those out fairly often. Does anybody actually know how often he does?According to baseball reference, he has 25 PA considered bunts this year. 7 have gone for hits. This doesn't take into account plate appearances where he showed bunt and the outcome was something other than a ball into play with the trajectory of a bunt.It also doesn't take into account times reached by error, which the drag bunt is prone to produce. Also, it should be noted that this number can increase his batting average because I believe it gets ruled as a sacrifice if he doesn't beat it out. Of those 7 hits, I wonder how many were with no runners on. Edit: Nevermind, thanks for the stats.

Are these bunts called? I can't think Yuni would want to bunt under his own will. Maybe he totally missed a sign again?

Is Ryan Braun a human? I don't think 'no' would be all that far-fetched.

So I guess you're trying to argue the hypothetical situation where the Phillies or Atlanta claims Berkman off waivers and the Brewers should/shouldn't move to pick him up? I could see Atlanta trying it, since they could use a RF, but there's no way the Phillies try. Pence and Ibanez aren't going to sit the bench, and Howard is staying at 1B. I know this situation is unlikely, but I'm still not sure the Brewers would sign a player for the sole purpose of another team not having him. $1.3 mill (+ waiver fee/prospects) is still a lot for a bench player, even if his sole purpose is for him to not play for the Braves. I don't think a team having Berkman is the be-all end-all for competing against the Brewers. We've beaten Berkman many, many times in his career, and I don't think they're all that worried about him playing for another team.

I agree, I think a day off should do him some good. A Hariston/Counsel start in a day game is pretty normal. I'm sort of surprised RR didn't put in his 'Sunday Lineup'. I expected Wilson/Counsel at 2B since JHJ is batting .244 against lefties this year, and .208 against lefty starters... although JW and CC haven't done much better. I also think this would have been a good game for Green to start, but I'm fairly confident we'll see him PH. McGehee is .288/.336/.843 vs the Cubs, so this game could regain some of his confidence. I think it might be good to get our struggling players some more work vs struggling teams and hope the get into playoff form... but it's also important to keep your bench involved and get them at-bats. Either way it's pish posh.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but can't the Cardinals still have to trade him after someone claims him off waivers? Say the Cardinals waive Berkman, and the Brewers are the only team to claim him. The Cardinals still have to push the buttons on the players, and can make a trade for him. I don't think they'd give him away, and would probably demand something for him. Even if it was just his salary, I think that would be a lot of money to give to a bench player for a month and the playoffs. To add to the argument, Lance Berkman isn't really a bench player either. He has bad career PH and Substitute numbers. He has 5 career RBI's as a pinch hitter. Casey McGehee has as many this season for crying out loud. The Brewers don't really need a 3B or a right fielder, and I don't think they'd sit Corey Hart at this point, and Corey definitely can't play CF. If he were to assume a starting role, I would think the move is great, but if they did this and he's used as a pinch hitter I think $1.3 is a bit much when we're trying to re-sign Fielder.

With Green, there's no evidence either way that he's going to be a bust or he's going to be starter-worthy. All that you can do is start him a few times and get him pinch hit at bats and see how he does. After seeing what Gamel has done with the Brewers, I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable inserting him in the line-up over McGehee, and he's been pretty solid in AAA as well. There's a general assumption that McGehee's been terrible lately. He hasn't. He's been .277/.327/.722 since the break. That certainly isn't 'bad' or a 'big hole'. McGehee's an average hitter at this point with proven major league success. If Taylor Green starts and proves he's a great hitter, wonderful. The Brewers have added another great bat to the lineup. Just don't blindly put him as an every-day starter for a playoff team when he's never taken a major league at bat. It would be an interesting move, but there's no way in hell RR is going to do this. RR would get so much hell if he changed the line-up to have Green the every-day starter and he turns out to have below the .277/.327/.722 line. Then what if McGehee gets inserted back in and can't find his swing again. If this was a month ago, I wouldn't mind it at all, but it's so late in the season to experiment with a guy when we honestly don't know what to expect. And the 'assumtions' I'm making about rookies is that we can't 'assume' anything until they've taken some at bats. If you look at players who lit up the PCL in 2010, it wasn't a given that they continued success immediately in the majors. Therefore, I'm not going to make 'assumptions' that Taylor Green will light up the majors. I think we should give him a shot, certainly, to see what he's got. He's definitely deserved it, but I would be shocked if they placed him in the every-day lineup this late in the season. Edit: I've looked hard for players who have gotten called up this late in the season for their first at-bats and assumed a starting role for a playoff team. It's had to have happened a bunch before, but if anyone can point a couple people out, I'd love to see the stats on it. Andruw Jones did it in '96, and went on to have a good playoffs. Wasn't quite the switch out a 'player not performing' case with Klesko, Grisson, and Dye.

The music operators usually don't change walk-up music unless the players tell them to. Maybe Fielder told them to play something different each time and this is what they came up with?

I am sorry for making that comparison. I knew it wasn't good, but yeah. The stats are terrible now that I look into them. I do think McGehee's been much more consistent on defense recently. I don't know the stats of rookies' fielding percentage in their first month of action, but I'm wondering if there's a drop-off from the pressure?

I really should have looked up how bad Braun's fielding percentage was. I just looked at Greens 3B fielding % vs McGehee's which was .943 vs .960 respectively. I do think Green will be given a chance, and I would like him to get a start or two, but I think it's wrong, for the reasons I stated, for him to get handed a starting job without any major-league success.

Let's just stick to arguing about McGehee. I think the Betancourt/Hariston situation is close, and as long as Hariston gets consistent at-bats at 2B and Weeks is hurt, we don't really need to argue about who should start at SS.There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role due to injury, trade, or release. There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role when your team is not in playoff contention. There's a difference between putting a rookie in a starting role when your team has a solid lead in the division with a consistent lineup. I'm not arguing that rookies can't perform. I'm not arguing that rookies shouldn't have a spot on the roster. I actually like this call-up. You're totally missing the argument. You have to look at the risk/reward of the situation. Starting Green can have very high rewards. You'd obviously get another solid bat in the line-up if it works out. If not, however, you'll end up with the same hole, if not, deeper hole in the line-up. Despite McGehee's inconsistent defense, I would argue Green's defense is closer to Braun-like at 3B. McGehee's second half numbers are statistically average with his career numbers. I think we have a good indication they'll stay that way. Whatever happened in the first half of the year, he seems to have settled down in the second half and is giving us career-like numbers. This isn't quite the Bill Hall situation, as he's given us 'acceptable-enough' offense for a playoff team. Teams can win with average/below average players in the line-up. If you stick Casey in a pinch hitter situation, you risk the drop-off of even the average numbers he's putting up recently if Green doesn't work out. I just think there's too much risk of this, and there's still a chance McGehee puts up numbers like he did last year. He's certainly capable of it, and I think all of us here are sick of waiting for it to happen. That's why there's so much back-lash against him this year. I honestly think if McGehee didn't put up those numbers last year, there would have been an acquisition or call-up by now. There'd probably be a lot less rambling against him. If he didn't produce the numbers, the Brewers still wouldn't switch starters because they're fine with line-up that helps produce this winning percentage.

I think I'm right, but I will admit if I'm wrong. I'll run some numbers. This shouldn't be considered blindly as a cause/effect relationship, because obviously various factors can come in to play. For example, Morgan's hits in his first 10 AB were against Dave Bush, Suppan, and Kip Wells. Not very strong pitchers, but then faced a playoff Cubs team. The teams you play, the parks you play in, and the position you're playing in (pinch hitter, dh, starter) all matter as much, if not, probably more. For this particular case, I was arguing call-ups. Consistent at-bats in spring training may result in more success in their first 10-25-50 AB. I'm running the numbers on the lineup, unfortunately by hand because I cannot do this through BR. It's probably the case that most players experience their first 25-50 AB as a call-up and do not assume a starting role at the beginning of the season. Hart was a late season call-up, as well as Morgan. I found these averages. Hart: (10) .200 (25) .200 (50) .200 (career) .275Morgan: (10) .400 (25) .240 (50) .220 (career) .288 I'll run the rest of the numbers and report my findings.

Are you talking about Buster Posey? You do realize he was called up in May, and had plate appearances in 2009. Not a situation where his first career major league at-bat happens a month before the playoffs start.

Yes. I am assuming a player with legitimately 0 career major league at bats until September will produce at a high rate in the playoffs. I don't think that's all that far-fetched to assume. I think statistics are on my side, and even if a success story in the situation is found, it's probably an outlier. The fact playoff teams aren't regularly calling up brand new prospects and plumping them into starting roles should be proof enough that it's probably not a good idea. The batting average of the Giants is a response to the argument that teams with holes in their lineup can't win a World Series. I brought up the Giants because it was the obvious and most recent case. The 2009 Phillies only had one player batting over .290 in their every-day lineup. The fact the Brewers have two MVP-caliber players in their line-up should compensate for players who aren't batting over .250. If teams can win series with great pitching, why the hell would the Brewers risk putting a huge unproven liability in at 3B when they have average production (historically enough to win the WS) at 3B.Its amusing you say that following a team with Francisco Rodriquez on it.Again, I'm sure you can find a couple players who performed well, but the majority of these players won't find immediate success. And relief pitching is a different story. If you're locating 97 mph fast balls in the minors, chances are, you'll get similar success in the majors. Unless your name is Ryan Braun, call-ups require some settling in and consistent at-bats. When a minor league pitcher shows consistency and throws hard (Strasburg), it's not surprising they have immediate success. When a player who tears up the minors and fails to bat above .250 in the majors (Gamel), it's not all that surprising. And let me remind you, it's not a desperate Bill Hall-caliber situation. It's not an injury situation either. It's not worth the risk of ruining even average production over a rookie with potential.

Yes. I am assuming a player with legitimately 0 career major league at bats until September will produce at a high rate in the playoffs. I don't think that's all that far-fetched to assume. I think statistics are on my side, and even if a success story in the situation is found, it's probably an outlier. The fact playoff teams aren't regularly calling up brand new prospects and plumping them into starting roles should be proof enough that it's probably not a good idea. The batting average of the Giants is a response to the argument that teams with holes in their lineup can't win a World Series. I brought up the Giants because it was the obvious and most recent case. The 2009 Phillies only had one player batting over .290 in their every-day lineup. The fact the Brewers have two MVP-caliber players in their line-up should compensate for players who aren't batting over .250. If teams can win series with great pitching, why the hell would the Brewers risk putting a huge unproven liability in at 3B when they have average production (historically enough to win the WS) at 3B.