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Thurston Fluff

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Everything posted by Thurston Fluff

  1. Thurston Fluff
    On a pure player talent evaluation it seems lopsided. When factoring in things like service time, roster space and options it looks closer to even. We may be short of starting outfielders but had a lot of 4th outfielder types. We freed up a spot on the 40 man roster by trading a redundant player. I might be reading too much into this but with all the lefties in the pen it sure seems like they're viewing at least one, more likely two, as starters. With Woody, Priester and Miz locks I think Peralta's time here is over.
  2. Thurston Fluff
    1- 7th or earlier is not the same as earlier than the 7th. Nor is his use early in the season the same as when his role was established. Murphy used him in the 7th when there were some lefties coming in the 8th. Both innings are essentially setup innings when you have a both a left and right handed set man. Early in the season nobody knew what to expect out of Uribe. Once he established himself we was used late in close games as a setup man. I don't know if you're trying to deny Murphy wasn't going with roles or you just don't want anyone in roles but it was pretty clear Murphy does. 2- Your argument was most definitely you not wanting to pigeon hole Uribe into one role from the start. I was wrong on what you meant by pigeon hole but not wrong that one of your reasons not to trade Megill was because you didn't want Uribe stuck in one role. The point remains he's going to be either way. The only question is which role. 3- We agree trading Megill to save money is a bad idea. I was never defending the idea of trading him to save money. I just didn't agree with either the argument that he wasn't ready or that he'd suddenly be pigeon holed into a single role was a valid reason not to.
  3. Thurston Fluff
    How many times did Uribe come into the game earlier than the seventh inning last season? Murphy has used relievers in pretty clear roles for the bullpen as a whole. While it took time for the roles to shakeout, as it does every year given the volatility of relievers, they each had roles that were pretty defined. Uribe was pretty much a pure setup man prior to closing. I don't recall him being used to get out of a jam in the 5th or 6th inning at all last season. His role last season was the right handed setup man. It wasn't a fireman used whenever seemed most important. Your argument boils down to you don't want to pigeon hole a guy who was already pigeon holed. You may not agree with him being used that way but he was used that way.
  4. Thurston Fluff
    If that's what you meant fine. That doesn't seem to be how the Brewers operate though. There's enough recent history here showing they use their best reliever as the closer.
  5. Thurston Fluff
    Hard not to see the pigeon holing comment as anything other than an inference he isn't ready for the role.
  6. Thurston Fluff
    I saw another post saying something similar about him being a setup man and now we'd somehow be pigeon holing Uribe in the 9th. Where did that come from? Uribe has shown he's more than ready, willing, and able to close. He was being groomed to be one since the minors. It's been obvious for a while that he's the heir apparent closer. There's an argument to be made he'd be our best option now even with Megill on the roster. That doesn't mean I'm for trading Megill. With him we have one of the top back ends of the pen in the game. The ability to shorten the game for a team like the Brewers for less than $5 million is hard to pass up. It just means claiming Uribe is somehow not ready or capable of being a top end closer seems way off to me. If the Brewers want to trade from the bullpen to save money Ashby would be the one IMHO. He's on a team friendly deal if he's a starter but not so friendly as a reliever. If, and it's a big if, the brewers think his days as a starter here are over he could be traded to a team that views him as a starter. A cost controlled starter on a team friendly contract would probably bring back more than Megill would as well. With Hall and a decent number of young starters who could be used as multi inning relievers Ashby is a luxury we can replace. It would also give Ashby a chance to be a starter somewhere. He seems like a guy who could net us a high ceiling prospect who doesn't need 40 man roster protection plus some more immediate help all while saving us money.
  7. Thurston Fluff
    Seems odd to have Churio and Ashby in there considering they signed long term deals.
  8. Thurston Fluff
    I don't think peripherals are always as indicative of production as some people think but I base that on some pitchers who tend to regularly out/under perform their FIP. When the same pitcher changes from their normal pattern I think there's something going on.
  9. Thurston Fluff
    I know it''s impossible to know one way or the other but this might make Peralta harder to trade. Teams know the Brewers would like to have a veteran with all the youth but they also know the Brewers don't have a lot of money so it balanced it out. With Woody back in the fold teams may think the Brewers have more of a need to trade Peralta.
  10. Thurston Fluff
    From a purely objective stance I would have been ok either way on this one. The way I look at it is if they planned on getting a veteran pitcher they'd have to spend at least $10 million anyway. When adding in the buyouts and such probably more. That makes this about $12 million to get a certain amount of certainty/continuity with no future financial risk. We know performs well in this environment, has a good track record of production and has shown he can be productive with his current arsenal. From a fan perspective I'm happy he's back for one more run.
  11. Thurston Fluff
    IF you've seen him play in AAA your better qualified than I am to judge his progress. I doubt most people who judged his defense have the same amount of recent first hand experience to make a judgement. Which is why I used Durbin as a comparison. I saw some of the same sort of thing when people decided Turang didn't have a strong enough arm to be an elite defensive shortstop despite him coming up as a defense first shortstop.
  12. Thurston Fluff
    That's what people said about Durbin's defense at third. I think people forget defense can improve and sometimes that's why a player is left in the minors playing everyday.
  13. Thurston Fluff
    This is probably not going to be a popular take but I wouldn't be opposed to giving Black a legitimate shot in left. I know the conventional thought is the Brewers have soured on him or Murphy doesn't trust him but I'm not so sure conventional wisdom is right in this case. It may have been as simple as wanting to keep him playing everyday to improve his defense and not wanting to yo-yo him between AAA and the majors.
  14. Thurston Fluff
    While I believe Mitchell will be solid if he can stay healthy I'd like to see him start in AAA. He's been out so much for so long I think everyone would be better served to let him get back to every day work in a less demanding atmosphere.
  15. Thurston Fluff
    I see Collins like a Scott Podsednik type. A late bloomer who has a career year early then hangs around for a while because he has the right skillset to play a role but never has another season like his first full year again. He's a great story and I'd love to be wrong but I just don't see him putting up many seasons like the one he just had. Durbin is a solid if unspectacular player who's shown he can hold his own as a starter on any team. I don't know how much room a person his size has to grow but he seems to know himself enough to remain productive. His low hard hit rate and lack of power are going to limit his ceiling. Patrick has the ability to take a step forward. He may not have the electric stuff of Peralta or dominant stuff Miz has but it's better than average and he knows how to use it. He looks to me like a poor mans Woodruff. He gets overshadowed yet at the end of the year has the same amount of success.
  16. Thurston Fluff
    Considering the two systems disagree on value I think this is one area where the eye test still has equal value. At this stage the value of defensive metrics are in the attempt more than the result. Medicine had to go through the five humors and blood letting stage to get to where it is today. We're just at the "fetch me a leech" stage with defensive metrics. I agree it's good to see gold gloves be taken more seriously now.
  17. Thurston Fluff
    I think Lockridge could be the hedge against another injury. There's also quite a few outfielders in the system as a whole. Probably going to have Bauers as well. There really isn't a need for more than one light hitting, defensive fifth outfielder as insurance.
  18. Thurston Fluff
    A six man rotation would make a lot of sense if Woody and/or Peralta are gone. It would ease the workload of the younger starters and keep everyone fresh for the playoffs.
  19. Thurston Fluff
    Given every team faces the exact same billion situations it seems fair to say the ones who did the best in all scenarios is actually the best. It's like testing to see the most athletic. Some people may be able to do more pushups, others can run long distances better, others can sprint faster, and so on. When we take all of those things together the one who did better overall is considered the best athlete.
  20. Thurston Fluff
    I think they'd have to address options and years of control before being added to the 40 man on top of taking away a year of control. Too many games can be played to manipulate service time for five years actually being five years.
  21. Thurston Fluff
    I'm good with whatever they do. Peralta's value is probably higher given the contract. Burnes made $15,637,000 his final year. Peralta is making a little over half that. I could see the Brewers packaging a decent prospect or a controllable player like Collins or Black for a higher end prospect.
  22. Thurston Fluff
    I don't see any version of a salary cap the players would accept that didn't involve complete revenue sharing like they have in the NFL. With it there is no team that can't afford to be at or near the top in payroll.
  23. Thurston Fluff
    Why would a team capable of absorbing that much risk not just buy a pitcher of the same caliber who doesn't have that much risk? Your last sentence is exactly why Woody may prefer to stay here. He doesn't want to be stashed away for half a year so the team can save him for the playoffs. Woody's situation seems more like what a team like the Brewers deal in than the Dodgers.
  24. Thurston Fluff
    The other part of my reasoning is to maximize his future value he needs to be in a good situation to have a good year. If he goes to a place for an extra $10 million that he'd get here but get pushed too hard or not have the pitching pedigree the Brewers have he could lose far more than he gains. I don't think there's a better situation for a one year prove it deal than what the Brewers offer.
  25. Thurston Fluff
    He also ended the season injured and tailed off a bit as the season went on. I think teams will want to see him stay healthy and productive for a full season before committing $25 million a year. I think he could end up with a Hoskins prove it type of deal as easily as he does a 3/75.
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